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Index A Aiken, Howard, 25 American National Standards Institute, 46 American Telephone and Telegraph Corporation, 131 Artificial intelligence, 37 Automotive industry joint ventures between U.S. and Japan, 28-29 program for displaced workers, 9 B Baby boom cohorts earnings inequality and, 110 effect on U.S. labor markets, 53, 55, 62 effect on Western European labor markets, 56 Bell Canada, effects of automation on occupational groups within, 90-91 Bell Telephone Laboratories basic research investments, 35 transistor development by, 25 Benetton Group of Italy effects of changes in organizational structure, 125 Biotechnology definition, 49 217 development trends and employment implications, 49 Blacks differential technology impacts on, 113-117, 174 unemployment rates, 57, 115- 116 Blue-collar workers duration of unemployment, 58-59 occupations contributing displacements, 59-60 training differentials between white-collar workers and, 139, 141, 152 unemployment trends, 56-57 wage losses on reemployment, 59 Buffalo Dislocated Worker Demonstration Program, 150 Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. computer price index, 31 Current Population Survey, 57 educational attainment forecasts, 66 methodology for incorporating technological change in employment projections, 96 productivity growth rates, 74 projections of labor force participation rates, 62-65, 96 survey of displaced workers, 57-59

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218 INDEX Bureau of the Census, U.S. occupational categories in blue-collar employment, 60 unemployment rates by worker group, 57 Business Roundtable, 157 C California Employment Training Panel, 151-152 Canada, growth rates in unit labor costs, productivity, and compensation, 83 Career mobility, effects of computer-based technologies on, 127-128, 174 Caterpillar, Inc., offshore production losses, 81 Chemicals industry, rates of innovation in, 31 Clerical workers black women, 115 displacement of, 89-90 employment forecasts for, 117-119 skill changes, 102-103 Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (COSEPUP) Panel on National Security Controls on International Technology Transfer, 37 Panel on Secondary School Education for the Changing Workplace, 121, 185 _ Communications services, sectoral employment and output changes in, 75-76 Communications Workers of America, 131 Compensation international comparison of, 82-84 see also Earnings; Wages Competitiveness in foreign trade effect of technological change on, 17-18, 21, 81-82, 85 importance to U.S. living standards, 68 Comprehensive Employment and Training Act of 1973, 146-147 Computer numerically controlled machine tools displacement of workers by, 48 use rates in U.S., 43-44 Computer-integrated manufacturing development trends and employment implications, 48 displacement of workers by, 48 organizational change required for, 28, 126 product redesign and, 27 product standards in, 46 reduction of U.S. offshore sourcing of subassemblies, 81 Computers/computer-assisted technologies adoption costs of, 45, 47 career mobility and, 128 commercialization of, 26 desktop data processing, minicomputers, 102 diffusion of, 43, 95 early market studies for, 25 innovation and productivity growth in, 74 product standards role in, 46-47 sales, 52 training, 99, 153 worker displacement by, 90, 95 workstation use growth rates, 44 see also Information technologies Construction output growth in, 75 Corporation for Open Systems, 46 Counseling, 6, 20, 155 D Deere and Company, product redesign by, 27 Deskilling, 128; see also Skill changes Diffusion of innovations/technology definition, 26-27 factors affecting, 27, 41-44 measures of, 31 obstacles to, 41-47 rates, 27, 29, 32, 41, 49 Digital information transmission, contribution to international technology transfer rates, 39 Disadvantaged workers, factors affecting employment, 57 Discrimination, racial, 116 Displaced workers adjustment strategies for, 4, 6-12, 143-159; see also Worker adjustment adult education for, 153 assets, 59 assistance for, 8-9, 88, 131, 154-155, 170-171 characteristics, 144-146 definition, 57-58 educational attainment, 60 estimation of population of, 9, 57 evaluation of programs for, 149-151

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INDEX 2 19 federal training and income support programs for, 146- 149, 170 funding for programs for, 9 minorities, 115 private adjustment programs, 153-155 reemployment of, 61, 115 retraining, 6, 9, 131, 144-145, 147-149, 151, 155 skill levels, 6, 170 state programs for, 151 - 152 unemployment durations of, 6, 57-58, 144, 170 women, 119 Displacement of workers causes of, 20, 57, 60-61 by computer-assisted manufacturing technologies, 48, 125 duration of unemployment from, 58-61, 115, 119 extent of, 143 financial consequences, 59 geographic implications, 59, 115 in manufacturing, 106 by office automation, 89-90 by robotics, 48, 91-94 technology adoption rate and, 5 trade-related, 5, 61, 76, 79-80 unemployment share caused by, 57-58 U.S. trends in, 32, 57-61 Downriver Community Conference Economic Adjustment Program, 150, 155 DuPont Company, basic research investments, 35 E E. arnlngs definition, 106 growth rates of, 52-54, 169 inequality in distribution of, 106, 108-111, 173 losses associated with reemployment after displacement, 59, 144 technological change and distribution of, 106-111 see also Compensation; Wages Eckert, J. Presper, 25 Educational attainment displacement and, 60 gender-based and racial differences in, 66-67, 117, 119, 143, 172 growth in, 143 income and, 67-68, 172 projections, 66-67 skills and, 100 U.S. labor force contrasted with other nations, 68-70 U.S. trends in, 65-69 Electronics industry, offshore production by, 81 Employment effects of technological change in biotechnology, 49 in computer-integrated manufacturing, 48 findings, 168-176 forecasting, 41, 92-98, 114, 117-119, 173 gradual nature of, 5 in information technologies, 47-48 in manufacturing, 51-52 in materials technologies, 48-49 influences on, 86-87 international trade-related, 17-18, 20-21, 52, 68, 76-79 levels and wages, 4-5 quality of data on, 164- 166, 175- 176 sectoral composition of jobs, 53, 74-77, 92-93 studies of, 86-99 see also Displacement of workers; Unemployment Employment growth, 53, 55, 76-77, 85, 90-91, 125 Employment opportunities forblacks, 12, 113-117 in construction, 53, 55 for disadvantaged workers, 57 on financial services, 53 in insurance industry, 53, 102 for labor force entrants, 12, 119-121, 170 for women, 12, 117-119 Engineers displacement by computer-aided manufacturing technologies, 48 projected supply of, 63 Export controls on commercial spillovers from defense R&D, 37-38 see also International trade F Farming, employment projections for, 95 Financial services displacement of clerical workers in, 90 product innovation and productivity growth, 73

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220 INDEX sectoral employment and output changes in, 74-75, 77 Firm size diffusion of technology and, 42, 46 use of robotics and, 44 see also Small companies Foreign companies, worker displacement from technological change in, 61 France educational attainment in, 70 growth rates in unit labor costs, productivity, and compensation, 83 R&D investment, 35, 38 unemployment levels, 56 G General Motors (GM), contrasts in productivity and product quality, 28-29 Government output growth, 75 programs for adjustment of displaced workers, 146-151 Great Britain, see United Kingdom H Hazards, workplace, 124- 135, 175 Health insurance, coverage lost by displaced workers, 59 High-technology industries, offshore production by, 81, 158 Hispanics, unemployment rates, 57 I Income support, 4, 147-149, 154-155 Income, household distribution of, 106-109 family structural changes and, 108-109 measures of, 107 tax policy and, 109 Income, per capita educational attainment and, 67-68 effects of technological change on, 1, 3, 16 Information technologies development trends and employment implications, 47-48 diffusion rates, 31-32, 44 displacement of clerical workers by, 89-90 effect on organizational structure of U.S. firms, 125-126 innovation and productivity growth in, 74 job skill changes in, 115-116 product standards role in, 46-47 relationship to occupations with projected declines in employment, 96-97 see also Computers/computer-assisted technologies Innovation costs, 26-27 definition, 25-26 development expenditures, 27, 35 diffusion of, see Diffusion of innovation employment growth from, 90-91 firm size and, 42 geographic shifts in, 32 influences on, 26-27 introduction of, 100 measuring rates of, 30 process, 2, 24, 51, 89 product, 24-25, 51, 73, 90 rates, 32 see also Technological development Insurance industry displacement of clerical workers in, 90 sectoral employment and output changes in, 74-75, 77 Insurance, unemployment, 145, 148-149 International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) basic research investments, 35 desktop printer redesign, 27-28 product standards development by, 46 International trade effects on employment, 2, 5, 17-18, 20-21, 52, 68, 76-79 importance to U.S. living standards, 68 Invention definition, 25 influences on, 26 measuring rates of, 30 rates, 32 Italy educational attainment in, 70 growth rates in unit labor costs, productivity, and compensation, 83 J Japan automotive industry, 28-29

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INDEX 22 1 computer numerically controlled machine use in, 44 educational attainment, 69-70 growth rates in unit labor costs, productivity, and compensation, 83-84 job-related skills training in, 138, 143 labor market structure, 141 organizational techniques affecting productivity and quality, 28-29 R&D investment, 34, 38 Job creation rates, 56 Job search assistance, 4, 6, 8-9, 20, 144, 147, 151, 155 Job security, 129-131 Job Training Partnership Act of 1982, Title III, 6, 8, 10, 146-147, 150-152, 155, 170 L Labor costs in U.S. and foreign manufacturing, 81-84 lowering of, 2-3, 21 Labor demand determinants of, 19, 71 impacts of technological change on, 71 reductions, causes of, 55, 172-173 technologies enhancing, 48 trends in, 71-77 Labor force civilian, definition, 62 educational attainment of, 65-69 gender and racial composition, 63-64 growth in, 61-62, 172 illegal immigrants in, 64-65 two-tiered, 106, 110, 123, 128, 174 unionized, 130-133, 135, 159 Labor force entrants differential technology impacts on, 119-121, 174 educational attainment of, 65, 68-70 effects of labor supply and demand on, 61 employment opportunities, 12, 119-121, 170 occupational distribution of, 120-119 skill change adjustments by, 142 skill level requirements, 6, 11, 20, 120-121, 143 training of, 11, 143 Labor force participation rates, projections, 62-65 Labor supply determinants of, 19 growth in, 54 influence on unemployment, 61-62 projections, 61-65 scientists and engineers, 63 Labor-management relations in implementation of innovation, 129-133 Layoffs advance notice of, 4, 6, 10-11, 131, 155, 170 training prior to, 152 see also Displacement of workers M Managers/management displacement by computer-aided manufacturing technologies, 48, 125 need for consultation between work force and, 132-133, 174-175 Manpower Development and Training Act of 1962, 146-147, 149-150 Manufacturing industries case studies of skill changes in, 101-102 durables, worker displacement in, 59, 145 employment growth in, 53, 55, 76-77, 85 employment shifts to services sector, 109, 125 exports, 77-78 flexible systems, 29, 44 high-technology, 109-110 impact of robotics on, 91-92 inequalities in employee earnings distribution in, 109-110 interactions among technological change, productivity growth, output growth, and employment in, 91 output growth, 75-77 productivity growth in, 72-74, 81-84 role of technological change in, 77 unit labor costs in, 81-84 wage declines in, 109 Materials technology, development trends and employment implications, 48-49 Mauchly, John, 25 Microelectronics industry, hazards created by technological change in, 134 Microelectronics-based, machine-controlled technologies, displacement of workers by, 48 Miniaturization, 26 Mining interactions among technological change, productivity growth, output growth, and employment in, 91

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222 INDEX output growth, 75-76 Monitoring worker exposure to hazardous substances, 135 N National Alliance of Business, 158 National Association of Manufacturers, 157-158 National Center on Occupational Readjustment, 158 National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, 88, 146 National Research Council Committee on Occupational Classification and Analysis, 123 Committee on the Effective Implementation of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 28, 101, 127, 129 Panel on Engineering Labor Markets, 63 Panel on Technology and Women's Employment, 31, 90, 92, 95, 117 Netherlands, educational attainment in, 68, 70 New United Motor Manufacturing, Inc., success of, 29 Newly industrializing countries, U.S. sourcing of subassemblies in, 81 o Occupations classifications of, 100, 123 with projected declines in employment, 96-97, 114, 117-118 sources of skill improvement training by, 140 Office automation case studies of, 102-103 displacement of workers by, 89-90 product standards in, 46 skill changes resulting from, 89, 102-103 U.S. investment rates in, 44 Organizational change interaction with technological change, 27-29 Organizational structure impact of technological change on, 122-128 of U.S. firms, 123-126 Output changes in sectoral composition, 74-77 growth in, 72-74 p Patents, growth in number of, 31 Perkins Vocational Education Act of 1984, 146, 149 Philadelphia Area Labor-Management Committee, 155 Plant shutdown, advance notice of, 4, 6, 10-11, 155-159 Policy recommendations adoption of new technologies, 12-15, 186-188, 190-191 advance notice of plant closures and layoffs, 10-11, 183-185 data collection and analysis, 13-14, 188-190 education for managers, 192-193 equal employment opportunity, 12, 117, 119, 186 health and safety implications of technological change, 15, 190 labor-management collaboration in technology adoption, 14, 190-192 training for labor force entrants, 11, 185-186 worker adjustment, 4, 7-12, 178-186 President's Commission on Industrial Competitiveness, 158 Product quality after notifying employees of plant shutdown or layoffs, 157 organizational changes affecting, 28-29 productivity measures and, 30-31 Product redesign, organizational change required for, 27-28 Product standards, role in information and computer technologies, 46-47 Production workers, displacement by computer-aided manufacturing technologies, 48 Productivity after notifying employees of plant shutdown or layoffs, 157 basic skill contribution to, 99 best practice and average, 93 declines, causes of, 54 difficulties in measuring, 73 growth in, 30-33, 54, 72-74, 81-84, 88 international comparisons of, 82-84 labor, 2, 30, 32, 52, 73, 88

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INDEX 223 manufacturing, 73-74, 81-84 measures of technological change, 30-32 multifactor, 30, 32 nonmanufacturing vs. manufacturing, 73-74 organizational change and, 27-28 R&D investment relation to, 34 unemployment and, 72 Profitability effect on diffusion of innovation, 42 organizational change and, 27 of R&D investment, 40 Q Quality of employment importance of technological change to, 88 organizational change and, 27 R R&D investment federal, 35-38 foreign, 34, 35, 38-40 industrial, 27, 33-35 as measure of inventive or innovative activity, 30 productivity and, 34 profitability of, 40 relation to U.S. exports, 78-80 tax treatment of, 34 Real estate, sectoral employment and output changes in, 74-75, 77 Reemployment, wage levels associated with, 59, 61 Regulation effect on diffusion of innovation, 27, 42-43 of hazards in workplace, 135-136, 175 of mandatory advance notice of plant shutdowns and layoffs, 158 Research basic, 34-35, 38 Robotics displacement of workers by, 48, 91-95 reduction of workplace hazards with, 134 use in U.S. industry, 43-44, 95 S Safety, workplace, opportunities created with technological change, 134- 135, 175 Science and technology policy recommendations, 12-13, 186-188 Scientists, projected supply of, 63 Secretary of Labor's Task Force on Economic Adjustment and Worker Dislocation, 57-59, 158 Service industries diffusion studies of, 43 employment growth, 53, 77, 125 output growth, 75 quality of data on employment and output, 74 skill and wage levels in, 79, 106 Skill level changes from adoption of computer-assisted technologies, 45-46, 89, 127- 128 effects on blacks, 114, 116 for entry-level jobs, 116, 127 findings on, 169 in manufacturing, 101-102 multiskilling, 127-128 organizational change and, 27, 127-128 projections of, 5-6 recommended adjustments for, 4 studies of, 99-103 Skills, basic contribution to productivity, 99 for labor force entrants, 11, 20, 142- 143, 170 minority access to education in, 117 Skills, job-related definition and measurement, 100 educational attainment and, 100 increased training in, 127 Small companies product standards effect on, 46 training provided by, 127, 139-140 use of robotics by, 44 Standard of living, importance of technological change to, 16, 88 Studies of technological change aggregate analyses, 94-98, 100 and distribution of earnings and income, 106-111, 173 and employment impacts, 86-99 and impact on compensation of worker sectoral changes, 105-106 individual firms, industries, or occupations, 89-94 input-output methodology, 94-98 interactions among technological change, productivity change, output growth, and employment, 91 and level of earnings, 103-106 in manufacturing, 101-102 office automation, 102-103

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224 INDEX and organizational structure, 122- 123, 173 policy-oriented, 87-89 recommendations for, 12-13 and sectoral changes in employment, 92-94 skill requirements and, 99- 103 weaknesses and difficulties in, 13, 86, 93-96, 98, 100, 123, 173 Sweden automation investments, 44 educational attainment in, 70 job-related skills training in, 138 R&D public investment focus, 38 T Taxes effects of policy changes on household income distribution, 109 R&D investment and, 34 Technological change adjustments required for firms and individuals, 3-4 adoption strategies, 123, 129-133, 169 benefits of, 1-2, 16-17, 88-89 defining, 24-32 economic effects of, 16-19, 87-88, 169 effect on U.S exports, 78-80 employment effects of, see Employment effects of technological change jobs affected by, 19-20 labor-management relations and, 129- 133 measuring, 29-32 organizational dimensions of, 27-29, 122-128 policy-oriented studies of, 87-89 quality of data on, 160-166, 175-176 rates, 12-15, 21, 31, 41, 171, 186-188, 190-191 skill requirements and, 99-103 sources, 32-40, 171 stages in, 25-26 studies, see Studies of Technological change unit labor costs and, 82-83 worker displacements related to, 61 worker health and safety and, 134-136 Technological Trends and Employment (TEMPO) project, 92-93 Technology civil versus military, 37-38 description of key technology "clusters" with employment implications, 47-50 diffusion of, 40-47; see also Diffusion of innovation Technology transfer, rates of, 2-3, 5, 32, 71, 126, 169 Telecommunications contribution to international technology transfer rates, 39 product innovation in, 74 Temporary National Economic Committee, studies of technological change impacts, 87-88 Temporary worker industry, growth in, 125 Texas Department of Community Affairs evaluation of displaced worker programs, 150 Texas Instruments, silicon junction transistor, 26 Toyota production system, 28-29 Trade adjustment assistance for displaced workers, 147-148 Trade, wholesale and retail employment growth, 53, 77 output growth, 75 Training adequacy of current system, 142-143 basic skills, 4, 143 costs, 46, 127, 133 differential between blue-collar and white-collar workers, 139, 141, 152 of displaced workers, 9-10, 146-148 firm size and, 139 increased need for, 127-128 job-related, 138-143 for labor force entrants, 11, 143 on-thejob, 99 sources, 138-141 upgrades for employed workers, 149 Transistors, development of, 24-26, 46 Transportation industry employment growth, 53 output growth, 75 Turnover rates in manufacturing employment, 129-130, 141 U U.S. companies, organizational structure of, 122-128 U.S. economy labor supply and demand within, 51-85, 171-173 sectoral composition of jobs in, 53 sources and rates of technological change in, 24-50, 171

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INDEX 225 structural and performance changes in, 51-55 technological change and welfare of, Video display terminals, 134 16-19 U.S. exports, effect of technological change on, 78-80 Unemployment age, race, and gender correlates of, 57, 60, 115-117 aggregate, 19, 55-57 benefits, displaced workers receiving, 59 causes of, 54 compensation, 8-9, 145, 148-149 displaced worker share in, 6, 57-58 duration, 56, 58-61, 115, 119, 156, 170, 172 geographic region and, 59 labor supply influence on, 61-62 skill level mismatches causing, 55-56 strategies for reducing, 54-55 structural, 19 trends in, 52, 55-61, 88-89 women's contribution to, 55 youth rates, 57, 121 see also Displacement of workers Unemployment insurance, 148- 149 Unions bargaining over adoption strategies for technological change, 130-133 contract provisions for displaced workers, 130-131, 154-155 contract provisions for employer/employee sharing of training costs, 141 decline in pattern bargaining, 131 requirements for notification of plant shutdowns and layoffs, 159 role in structuring U.S. firms, 124 United Auto Workers-Ford program for displaced workers, 9, 155 United Kingdom educational attainment in, 69-70 growth rates in unit labor costs, productivity, and compensation, 83 public R&D funding, 35 sectoral studies of employment and technological change in, 92-93 unemployment levels, 56 Utility industry employment opportunity trends in, 53 output growth, 75 V W Wages multiskilling and, 127 studies of, 53-54 see also Compensation; Earnings West Germany automation investments, 44 educational attainment in, 69-70 growth rates in unit labor costs, productivity, and compensation, 83-84 job-related skills training in, 138 R&D investment, 34, 38 unemployment rates, 56 White-collar workers duration of unemployment, 59 wage losses on reemployment, 59 Women distribution of earnings by, 108 effect on labor markets, 53, 55, 62 employment opportunities for, 117-119, 174 labor force participation effects on family income, 108-109 Worker adjustment through adult education, 153 through advance notice of plant shutdowns and layoffs, 155-159 basic skills training for labor force entrants, 143 costs of programs for, 9-10 current policies for, 137-159, 175 demonstration and experimental programs for, 8 effectiveness of programs, 166- 167 employment services for, 8 federal loans for, 8 federal training and income support programs for, 146-151, 170 income support for, 8 through job-related training, 138-143 private programs for, 153-155 quality of data on, 166-167 recommended strategies for, 7-12 state programs, 151-152 unemployment compensation, 8-9, 148-149 see also Training y Youth unemployment rates, 57, 121