FIGURE 1-4 Comparison of historical trends (millions of barrels per day) in U.S. consumption and importation of oil (National Energy Policy Group, 2001).

crease is related to the transportation sector and more specifically, to motor vehicles. Significant increases in land-based runoff of petroleum hydrocarbons can be expected as a by-product of this increased consumption.

To meet the increased demand, an increase in world oil supply of roughly 45 mb/d (6.4 mt/d) is projected for the next two decades. It is expected that Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) producers will be responsible for more than two-thirds of this increase. Imports into industrialized countries are therefore expected to increase from 34.0 to 43.7 mb/d (4.9 to 6.2 mt/d), and imports into developing countries from 19.3 mb/d to 42.8 mb/d (2.8 to 6 mt/d). Much of these imports will move by sea. Major importers and exporters are shown in Figure 1-7. Increased imports into China and Pacific Rim countries will come largely from the Persian Gulf. North American imports are projected to increase from 11.0 mb/d (1.57 mt/d) in 1998 to about 18.0 mb/d (2.6 mt/d) in 2020. More than half

PHOTO 1 The Genesis Spar, located in the Green Canyon 205 Field about 150 miles south of New Orleans, is typical of the new technology allowing oil and gas development in deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico. (The original discovery well was drilled in 1988 in 2600 feet of water.) The Genesis Development Project is a joint venture development between ChevronTexaco Production Company, Exxon Company USA, and PetroFina Delaware, Inc. (Photo courtesy of Environmental Research Consulting.)

of the North American imports are expected to come from the Atlantic Basin, principally Latin American and West African producers. Imports into North America from the Persian Gulf are expected to double, from 2.2 to 4.2 mb/d (0.3 to 0.6 mt/d).

It is apparent that greater and greater amounts of oil will be transported by vessel, refineries will have to increase capacity, and more coastal petroleum handling facilities will be needed. These have the potential to increase the input of hydrocarbons into the oceans. However, the operational and accidental discharge of oil from vessels and platforms has declined substantially over the past three decades, and it is reasonable to expect continued improvements in these areas in future years as the benefits from recently enacted regulations and improved operational practices are fully realized. The expected growth in worldwide consumption, with much of the increase concentrated in the transportation sector, is of concern. Land-based runoff of petroleum hydrocarbons can



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