TABLE 1-1 Consumption of Petroleum by End-Use Sector, 1973-1999 (quadrillion Btu)

Year

Transportation

Percentage

Residential & Commercial

Percentage

Industrial

Percentage

Electric Utilities

Percentage

Total

1973

17.83

51.2

4.39

12.6

9.1

26.1

3.52

10.1

34.84

1974

17.4

52.0

4

12.0

8.69

26.0

3.37

10.1

33.46

1975

17.61

53.8

3.81

11.6

8.15

24.9

3.17

9.7

32.74

1976

18.51

52.6

4.18

11.9

9.01

25.6

3.48

9.9

35.18

1977

19.24

51.8

4.21

11.3

9.77

26.3

3.9

10.5

37.12

1978

20.04

52.8

4.07

10.7

9.87

26.0

3.99

10.5

37.97

1979

19.83

53.4

3.45

9.3

10.57

28.5

3.28

8.8

37.13

1980

19.01

55.6

3.04

8.9

9.53

27.9

2.63

7.7

34.21

1981

18.81

58.9

2.63

8.2

8.29

26.0

2.2

6.9

31.93

1982

18.42

60.9

2.45

8.1

7.79

25.8

1.57

5.2

30.23

1983

18.59

61.9

2.5

8.3

7.42

24.7

1.54

5.1

30.05

1984

19.22

61.9

2.54

8.2

8.01

25.8

1.29

4.2

31.06

1985

19.5

63.1

2.52

8.2

7.81

25.3

1.09

3.5

30.92

1986

20.27

63.0

2.56

8.0

7.92

24.6

1.45

4.5

32.2

1987

20.87

63.5

2.59

7.9

8.15

24.8

1.26

3.8

32.87

1988

21.63

63.2

2.6

7.6

8.43

24.6

1.56

4.6

34.22

1989

21.87

63.9

2.53

7.4

8.13

23.8

1.69

4.9

34.22

1990

21.81

65.0

2.17

6.5

8.32

24.8

1.25

3.7

33.55

1991

21.46

65.3

2.15

6.5

8.06

24.5

1.18

3.6

32.85

1992

21.81

65.0

2.13

6.4

8.64

25.8

0.95

2.8

33.53

1993

22.2

65.6

2.14

6.3

8.45

25.0

1.05

3.1

33.84

1994

22.76

65.6

2.09

6.0

8.85

25.5

0.97

2.8

34.67

1995

23.2

67.1

2.08

6.0

8.62

24.9

0.66

1.9

34.56

1996

23.74

66.4

2.2

6.2

9.1

25.4

0.73

2.0

35.77

1997

24

66.2

2.14

5.9

9.31

25.7

0.82

2.3

36.27

1988

24.64

66.7

1.97

5.3

9.15

24.8

1.17

3.2

36.93

1999

25.21

66.9

2.07

5.5

9.45

25.1

0.97

2.6

37.7

 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review, March 2000, pp. 27, 29, 31, 33.

utilities consumption has decreased, and industrial consumption has remained nearly constant, consumption by transportation has increased substantially.

The U.S. population has increased from 180.7 million to 272.7 million in the past 40 years, an increase of 92 million people. Figure 1-1 illustrates U.S. oil production and consumption for 1960 through 1997 (Davis, 2000). Consumption increased from 9.8 mb/d (1.4 mt/d) in 1960 to 18.6 (2.8 mt/d) mb/d in 1997, an increase of 8.8 mb/d, and it has continued to increase during the past decade. U.S. oil production, however, has remained rather constant and since 1985 has been declining (Figure 1-1). As a result, U.S. consumption is presently nearly three times U.S. production. Figures 1-2 and 1-3 illustrate projections of consumption and production of oil and natural gas in the United States for the next 20 years (National Energy Policy Development Group, 2001). Note that oil consumption will exceed production by 19 mb/d (2.7 mt/d) in the year 2020, and natural gas consumption will exceed production by 13.5 trillion cubic feet in the same time. Today, the United States produces 39 percent less oil than it did in 1970, leaving us ever more reliant on foreign suppliers. As consumption increases and production decreases, net imports will have to increase to meet this demand (Figure 1-4). The United States has been a net importer of oil since the 1950s, and today oil accounts for 89 percent of net U.S. energy imports (National Energy Policy Development Group, 2001). If the projections of oil consumption are correct, the United States will have to import nearly 20 mb/d (2.9 mt/d) by the year 2020—double its current amount.

WORLD ENERGY NEEDS AND RESOURCE AVAILABILITY

As the population of the world increases and developing nations become more industrialized, the demand for energy will increase. Oil is currently the dominant energy fuel and is expected to remain so over the next several decades (see Figure 1-5). There is general agreement that the availability of oil will not be a significant constraint on oil demand through 2020, because the reserve-to-production ratio for Persian Gulf producers currently exceeds 85 years. Worldwide petroleum consumption is projected to increase by 44.7 mb/d (6.4 mt/d), from 74.9 mb/d (10.7 mt/d) in 1999 to 119.6



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