Click for next page ( 54


The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement



Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.

OCR for page 53
4 Availability of Experts A pplicants for National Geospatial-Intelligence collects and tracks employment statistics for more than Agency (NGA) positions must be U.S. citizens 800 occupations. and have a relevant ­ achelor’s degree, experi- b ence, or both (Box 4.1). ­ any geo­patial intelligence M s Supply of New Graduates disciplines needed for these positions are small and some are shrinking. Thus, a key question for agency managers The Department of Education’s National Center is how many individuals have education and/or experi- for Education Statistics gathers information from U.S. ence in the core and emerging areas now and over the colleges and universities on the number of degrees next 20 years (Task 1). This chapter assesses the supply conferred by degree level and field of study through of two sources of expertise in the core and emerging its Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System. areas: (1) new graduates entering the workforce with a Educational institutions use a set of instructional pro- relevant degree, and (2) individuals already working in grams defined in the Classification of Instructional occupations outside NGA that require relevant knowl- Programs to report degree data. The Classification of edge or skills. It also examines factors that reduce the Instructional Programs includes more than a thousand availability of this expertise to NGA. programs.1 Cartography is the only core or emerging area tracked in this classification directly, but some of CURRENT AVAILABILITY OF EXPERTS the other areas are mentioned in the code descriptions. For example, photogrammetry appears in the descrip- To assess the current availability of experts in tions of three codes; remote sensing appears in six the core and emerging areas, the committee analyzed codes; and geodesy appears in four codes. Because the government statistics on the number of individuals core and emerging areas do not exactly correspond to graduating with a relevant degree from a U.S. college the instructional program codes, the committee chose or university and the number of experienced indi- relevant fields of study to track by matching the descrip- viduals employed in occupations that require relevant tions of the instructional programs to the skills, degrees, knowledge or skills. For example, one source of NGA or coursework identified for the core and emerging employees is former military officers, who have received areas (Chapters 2 and 3). The committee used expert a substantial amount of on-the-job training in the field judgment to rank each instructional program as highly of service. Data on new graduates are available from the relevant, possibly relevant, or not relevant to each area. Department of Education, which tracks the number of degrees conferred by level and field of study. Data on 1 See for a experienced individuals working in related fields are list of all programs. The committee used the 2000 version of the available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which Classification of Instructional Programs because data were not available for the 2010 version when the analysis was carried out. 53

OCR for page 53
54 FUTURE U.S. WORKFORCE FOR GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE BOX 4.1 NGA Education Requirements Most geospatial analysis positions at NGA require a bachelor’s degree, 6 years of experience, or a comparable combination of education and expe­ rience (Table B.1, Appendix B). A master’s or doctorate degree is preferred for principal scientists. In NGA’s current workforce, more than 80 percent of scientists and analysts have a bachelor’s degree and 30 percent have a master’s degree. Relatively few have a doctorate degree or less than a bachelor’s degree (e.g., an associate’s degree). The fields of study specified in the education requirements for NGA scientist and analyst positions are diverse (Table B.1, Appendix B). A few occu­ a­ions have relatively specific requirements. For example, analysts specializing in geospatial analysis must have a related degree or a certificate in pt Geographic Information Systems from an accredited university. However, many positions allow a wide range of degree topics. For example, applicants for imagery intelligence positions may hold a bachelor’s degree in engineering, foreign area studies, geography, history, imagery science, international affairs, military science, physical science, political science, remote sensing, or a related discipline. The 25 most common degree topics specified in science and analysis positions at NGA are shown graphically in the figure below. The most highly sought degree topics—physical science, engineer­ ing, mathematics, and geography—are broad areas that encompass several fields of study, suggesting that NGA is flexible on the field of study for its science and analysis positions. FIGURE  The 25 most common degree topics specified in NGA job descriptions for scientists and analysts (Table B.1, Appendix B), which focus on five core areas: geodesy and geophysics, photogrammetry, remote sensing, cartography, and GIS and geospatial analysis. In word clouds such as this, the most common topics are portrayed by the largest lettering. An arbitrary color scheme is used to make it easier to distinguish the various phrases. SOURCE: Generated using . A total of 164 instructional programs were judged to (surveying engineering) and 12 possibly relevant pro- be highly relevant or possibly relevant to the core and grams. The highly relevant instructional programs that emerging areas. The definitions of these programs are were identified most often across the core and emerging given in Table C.1 of Appendix C, and the assignment areas were surveying engineering, mathematical statis- of relevance to each core and emerging area is given in tics and probability, and cartography. Table C.2. The large number of highly relevant or possibly rel- Figure 4.1 shows the number of instructional pro- evant instructional programs (164) yields a correspond- grams that potentially provide knowledge and skills ingly large number of graduates. For human geography, that are relevant to each of the core and emerging areas. for example, the committee deemed 54 instructional Areas that are highly interdisciplinary (e.g., human programs as highly relevant and 28 instructional pro- geography, forecasting) or that are taught in several grams as possibly relevant. In 2009, more than 150,000 different university departments (e.g., remote sensing) degrees were conferred at all levels for the highly rele- have the largest number of highly relevant instructional vant instructional programs and nearly 100,000 degrees programs (21–57). The area with the lowest number were conferred for the possibly relevant instructional of relevant instructional programs is photogrammetry, programs (Table C.3 in Appendix C). These numbers which has only 1 highly relevant instructional program are clearly overestimates of the recruitment pool, given

OCR for page 53
AVAILABILITY OF EXPERTS 55 FIGURE 4.1  Number of instructional programs that potentially provide knowledge and skills that are relevant to the core and emerg- ing areas. SOURCE: Data from the National Center for Education Statistics’ Classification of Instructional Programs, . that human geography, as defined in this report, is an • crowdsourcing: information technology; statis- emerging area. tics, general; A more realistic “upper bound” on the number • human geography: political science and govern- of graduates was determined by focusing on the 109 ment, general; history, general; sociology; instructional programs considered by the committee • visual analytics: information science/studies; to be highly relevant to the core and emerging areas. graphic design; and Figure 4.2 shows the number of bachelor’s, master’s, • forecasting: political science and government, and doctorate degrees conferred in 2009 in highly general; sociology. relevant fields of study (see also Table C.4 in Appen- dix C). For each of the core and emerging areas, a few The instructional programs that produce the bulk of instructional programs produce more than 50 percent graduates do not always match the programs that pro- of graduates (Table C.6): vide the bulk of skills needed for a position in a core or emerging area (e.g., see Tables A.1–A.10, Appendix A). • geodesy and geophysics: aerospace, aeronautical The mismatch is greatest in remote sensing, geodesy and astronautical engineering; and geophysics, human geography, and forecasting. • photogrammetry: surveying engineering; Figure 4.2 shows that more than three-quarters • remote sensing: mathematics, general; of the degrees were at the bachelor’s level and about • cartography: geography; graphic design; 18 percent were at the master’s level. The mix of degrees ­ • GIS and geospatial analysis: geography; conferred varied among the core and emerging areas, • GEOINT fusion: information science/studies; with a larger fraction of bachelor’s degrees in fields information technology; environmental studies; envi- highly relevant to cartography, human geography, and ronmental science; forecasting; a larger fraction of master’s degrees in

OCR for page 53
56 FUTURE U.S. WORKFORCE FOR GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE FIGURE 4.2  Number of degrees conferred in 2009 in instructional programs that are highly relevant to the core and emerging areas. SOURCE: Data from the U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics’ Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Completions Survey. Accessed via WebCASPAR. fields highly relevant to crowdsourcing and GIS and Growth rates in the number of degrees conferred geo­patial analysis; and a larger fraction of doctorate s in highly relevant fields of study vary considerably by degrees in fields highly relevant to geodesy and geo- area (Figure 4.4; Table C.5, Appendix C). The areas physics and remote sensing. with the highest growth in the number of relevant Figure 4.3 shows trends in the number of graduates degrees (annual growth rates greater than 4 percent) for all levels in fields of study that are highly relevant to from 2000 to 2009 were geodesy and geophysics, car- the core and emerging areas for the 2000–2009 period tographic science, crowdsourcing, and visual analytics. (see also Table C.4, Appendix C). The figures show that Some of the fields of study driving the increase include the total number of degrees conferred grew over the aerospace, aeronautical, and astronautical engineering 2000–2009 period. Annual growth rates for that period (geodesy and geophysics); information technology were 3.5 percent for bachelor’s degrees, 4.5 percent for master’s degrees, and 2.1 percent for doctorate degrees.2 In this case, the ending value is the number of degrees conferred in 2009, the beginning value is the number of degrees conferred in 2000, 2 Annual growth rates were calculated using the standard compound and N is the number of years that have elapsed between the beginning annual growth rate formula: (ending value ÷ beginning value)1/N – 1. and ending values (9 years).

OCR for page 53
AVAILABILITY OF EXPERTS 57 FIGURE 4.3  Number of degrees conferred by year for the fields of study that are highly relevant to the core and emerging areas. SOURCE: Data from the U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics’ Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Completions Survey. Accessed via WebCASPAR. (crowdsourcing); and graphic design, and animation, programs included in the Classification of Instructional interactive technology, video graphics, and special Programs may not perfectly match university programs. e ­ ffects (cartographic science and visual analytics). The Each university uses discretion in matching the degrees sharp increase in 2003 or 2004 for crowd­ourcing, s it confers to the programs included in the classification, cartography, and visual analytics (Figure 4.4 top) re- which could result in inconsistencies across universities. flects the introduction of new instructional program Moreover, instructional program codes evolve over codes (Table C.6, Appendix C). The 2008 decline in time. For example, nearly half of the instructional pro- crowdsourcing reflects a decreasing number of degrees grams that are highly relevant to the core and emerging conferred in information technology. The decline areas were introduced in the classification used in this for visual analytics between 2003 and 2007 reflects a study, one was discontinued, and several were renamed. decrease in degrees conferred in information science/ In some of the new fields, no degrees were reported, studies, although recent increases in degrees conferred suggesting that it takes time for universities to adopt in animation, interactive technology, video graphics, new classifications. and special effects have led to a recent uptick. No clear The most important shortcoming in the Depart- trend is apparent in photogrammetry, possibly because ment of Education data is that only one instructional only one field of study was considered highly relevant program (cartography) directly matches an area ana- and numbers of graduates in that field are small and lyzed in this report. For the other core and emerging were not reported until 2004. areas, several instructional programs potentially offer The degree data compiled by the Department some relevant knowledge and skills. Adding up the of Education are not ideal for estimating the sup- number of graduates from all relevant instructional ply of new graduates in the core and emerging areas programs yields an “upper bound” on the number of discussed in this report. One shortcoming is that the experts in the core and emerging areas. To estimate

OCR for page 53
58 FUTURE U.S. WORKFORCE FOR GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE FIGURE 4.4  Total number of degrees conferred for 2000–2009 by year for fields of study that are highly relevant to the core and emerging areas. Note the change in scale between the two figures. (Top) Ten-year trends for photogrammetry, geodesy and geophysics, crowdsourcing, GIS and geospatial analysis, cartography, and visual analytics. (Bottom) Ten-year trends for GEOINT fusion, remote sensing, forecasting, and human geography. SOURCE: Data from the U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics’ Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Completions Survey. Accessed via WebCASPAR.

OCR for page 53
AVAILABILITY OF EXPERTS 59 the number of graduates with the desired mix of skills in the core and emerging areas and the instructional and knowledge, the committee took into account the programs most commonly associated with these pro- number of graduates from the prevailing instructional grams lowers the estimated number of graduates in the program (if any) and the number of universities offer- core and emerging areas (Table 4.1). The difference ing programs in a core or emerging area (see Tables between the total number of graduates from highly A.1–A.10, Appendix A). For remote sensing, which relevant instructional programs and the number of has no prevailing instructional program, the commit- graduates with knowledge in a core or emerging area tee made its estimate based on the number of universi- is smallest for photogrammetry and for GIS and ties and the membership of the primary professional geospatial analysis, each of which is dominated by society for remote sensing and related geospatial one instructional program that provides the bulk of analysis—the American Society for Photogramme- training necessary for the core area (i.e., geography for try and Remote Sensing (ASPRS). The committee’s GIS and geospatial analysis [Table A.4]). For core or estimates, which are based on expert judgment, are emerging areas with a small number of graduates in given in Table 4.1. a closely related instructional program (e.g., geodesy Accounting for the number of university programs and geophysics, cartography) and/or a small number TABLE 4.1  Estimated Annual Number of Graduates at All Levels with Knowledge in a Core or Emerging Area Number of Universities with Training in a Number of Graduates with Knowledge in a Number of Graduates in Relevant Fields of Studya Core or Emerging Areab Core or Emerging Area Geodesy and geophysics • 5,979 total graduates 60 universities for geophysics hundreds • 213 geophysics and seismology graduates 20 universities for geodesy • 28 surveying engineering graduates Photogrammetry 28 total graduates, all in surveying engineering 15 universities few tens Remote sensing 35,427 total graduates 63 universities hundreds to thousandsc Cartographic science • 14,779 total graduates 35 universities hundreds • 165 cartography graduates GIS and geospatial analysis • 9,917 total graduates 189 universities thousands • 5,615 geography graduates GEOINT fusion 21,656 total graduates 12 universities tens to hundreds Crowdsourcing 6,469 total graduates 10 universities tens to hundreds Human geography 155,016 total graduates 10 universities tens to hundreds Visual analytics 17,678 total graduates 15 universities tens to hundreds Forecasting 101,121 total graduates 100 universities hundreds to thousands a See Table C.6, Appendix C. b See Tables A.1–A.10, Appendix A. c Based on the number of universities and the membership of ASPRS (7,000).

OCR for page 53
60 FUTURE U.S. WORKFORCE FOR GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE of university programs (e.g., all emerging areas), the majority (77 percent) in the private sector. The federal difference in estimates can be several orders of mag- sector employs more than 50 percent of the nation’s nitude (Table 4.1). The refined estimate suggests that forest and conservation technicians, ­ eographers, and g the number of graduates with expertise in the core and political scientists. The bulk of jobs in the private sec- emerging areas ranges from tens (e.g., photogrammetry, tor are in computer occupations, with more than half crowdsourcing) to thousands (e.g., GIS and geospatial in three occupations: software developers, applications; analysis). computer systems analysts; and computer program- mers. Occupations that are likely to be particularly rel- Supply of Experienced Individuals evant to NGA—cartographers and photogrammetrists; surveying and mapping technicians; geographers; and The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Occupational geoscientists, except hydrologists and geographers— Employment Statistics program estimates the number represent less than 4 percent of the jobs in NGA- of jobs and wages for more than 800 occupations. The relevant occupations. number of jobs in a specific occupation is similar to, For a majority of occupations, the mean annual but not the same as, the number of people employed in salary is higher in the federal sector than in the pri- that occupation. For example, a person may have more vate sector (Table D.2, Appendix D). These data are than one job. Thus, these job estimates are not direct consistent with a Congressional Budget Office report estimates of the number of people available in a given (CBO, 2012), which found that average wages and occupation. The job and wage estimates are based on a benefits are higher for federal workers with bachelor’s survey of more than a million business establishments and master’s degrees than for private-sector workers. in the United States, the District of Columbia, Guam, As noted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, however, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands over a 3-year these salary differences may be due to factors such as period. The data do not reflect the self-employed, the level of work performed, age and experience, cost of o ­ wners and partners in unincorporated firms, house- living, establishment size, work schedules, and union- hold workers, and unpaid family workers. ization.3 Given these caveats, the occupations with the The Occupational Employment Statistics program most notable differences in salary are astronomers and classifies occupations using the Standard Occupa- historians, which have mean annual salaries that are tional Classification system. The codes and descrip- more than 50 percent higher in the federal sector than tions for the 36 occupations chosen by the committee in the private sector. Pay for mathematical technician as most relevant to NGA are given in Table D.1 in occupations is notably lower in the federal sector than ­Appendix D. Some of the occupations are closely related in the private sector. to the core and emerging areas, such as cartographers As noted above, former members of the military and ­ hotogrammetrists; surveying and mapping tech- p are a source of employees for NGA. Statistics from nicians; geographers; and geoscientists, except hydrolo- the American Community Survey of the U.S. Bureau gists and geographers. The individuals working in these of Census can be used to estimate the fraction of occupations likely have knowledge and skills that would people in NGA-relevant occupations who are cur- be useful to NGA. However, most occupations are more rently serving or have served in the military. The data broadly defined than the core and emerging areas (e.g., for 2010 show that current and former military make computer programmers, computer systems analysts, up approximately 11 percent of employees in NGA- electrical engineers) and likely include workers with relevant occupations, including 11 percent of surveyors, skills and knowledge that are less relevant to NGA. cartographers, and photogrammetrists; 16 percent of Table D.2 in Appendix D lists the number of jobs surveying and mapping technicians; 16 percent of mis- and wages by sector as of May 2010 for NGA-relevant cellaneous social scientists, including survey researchers occupations. The data suggest that there are more than 2.7 million jobs in occupations that are potentially rel- evant to NGA. A relatively modest percentage of these 3 Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, jobs are in the federal sector (8 percent), with the vast Occupational Employment Statistics, Frequently Asked Questions, .

OCR for page 53
AVAILABILITY OF EXPERTS 61 and sociologists; and 40 percent of atmospheric and or skills needed for the core and emerging areas. The space scientists (Table D.3). actual number is likely considerably lower. A possible Individuals who are unemployed in NGA-relevant “lower bound” is the number of jobs in the four most occupations discussed above may also be a viable source closely related occupations: cartographers and photo- of expertise. Information on unemployment by occupa- grammetrists (11,670); surveying and mapping techni- tion is available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ cians (53,870); geographers (1,300); and geoscientists, Current Population Survey. Coverage of the survey is except hydrologists and geographers (30,830). limited to the civilian noninstitutional population aged 16 years and older and involves a monthly survey of REDUCTIONS IN THE TALENT POOL 60,000 households. The occupation data collected are consistent with the 2000 Standard Occupation Code The talent pool available to NGA is smaller than system but are presented at a higher level of aggrega- the estimates presented above because only U.S. citi- tion in some cases. zens able to obtain a security clearance are eligible for Table D.4 in Appendix D shows average annual hire. In addition, competition from other organizations, unemployment rates4 for salary and wage workers in which may offer higher salaries or a better work envi- NGA-relevant occupations over the 2006–2010 period. ronment, may reduce the number of highly qualified The average annual unemployment rate for manage- applicants. For example, new graduates are accustomed ment, professional, and related occupations as a whole to staying connected with their peers, downloading (5 percent for 2010) was included as a benchmark. applications, and using any software they wish to carry Two occupations with notably high total unemploy- out tasks on computer platforms and mobile devices. ment rates for 2010 were surveying and mapping Organi­ ations that do not offer such a flexible, high- z technicians (15 percent) and artists and related workers tech, connected environment, such as government (14 percent). These two occupations have experienced agencies, may not attract the most technically savvy relatively high unemployment rates since 2006, sug- and analytically capable individuals. Moreover, some gesting that the high rates in 2010 were not due solely individuals will not work for the government or for to the recent recession. an intelligence agency. It is difficult to quantify reduc- Occupations with relatively low 2010 unemploy- tions in the labor pool associated with the NGA work ment rates include statisticians (<1 percent); urban environment, but data are available to assess reductions and regional planners (1 percent); operations research associated with the U.S. citizenship requirement, as analysts (2 percent); environmental scientists and discussed below. geoscientists (2 percent); librarians (3 percent); and physical scientists, all other (3 percent). The 2010 U.S. Citizenship unemployment rate for surveyors, cartographers, and photogrammetrists (2 percent) was lower than the The citizenship of new graduates can be inferred management, professional, and related occupations from data gathered by the National Center for Educa- benchmark in 2010, but higher in most other years. tion Statistics. Although these data do not distinguish The labor data are subject to some of the same between U.S. citizens and permanent residents, other shortcomings as the degree data. In particular, only a data sources suggest that the vast majority of degrees few occupations match the core areas and none match conferred to U.S. citizens and permanent residents the emerging areas. Thus, the 2.7 million jobs in NGA- are conferred to U.S. citizens. In particular, an analysis relevant occupations provide an “upper bound” on the of the most recent cohort in the Baccalaureate and number of experienced workers with some knowledge Beyond Longitudinal Study,5 representing bachelor’s degree recipients during the 2007–2008 academic year, 4 The unemployment rate is the number of people who are shows that more than 96 percent of degree recipients unemployed (i.e., people without jobs who are looking for work) were U.S. citizens and 3 percent were permanent resi- divided by the number of people in the labor force (i.e., employed people plus unemployed people). See Table D.4 for details on how the unemployment rate is calculated. 5 See .

OCR for page 53
62 FUTURE U.S. WORKFORCE FOR GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE dents. An analysis of the most recent National Survey that are highly relevant to geodesy and geophysics ­ of Recent College Graduates,6 representing individuals (Table C.9, Appendix C). Given that NGA hires in- who earned a bachelor’s or master’s degree in a science, dividuals mainly at the bachelor’s and master’s levels, engineering, or health field between July 1, 2005, and the number of U.S. citizens with doctorates may not June 30, 2007, shows that U.S. citizens received more be important to NGA. than 95 percent of bachelor’s degrees and more than To estimate the citizenship status of individuals 81 percent of master’s degrees. An analysis of the a ­ lready employed in relevant occupations, the commit- 2009 Survey of Earned Doctorates,7 which captures tee used data collected in the American Community information on individuals receiving research doctorate Survey, an ongoing survey conducted by the U.S. degrees from an accredited U.S. institution during the Census Bureau. Specifically, the 2005–2009 Public 2009 academic year, shows that 94 percent of degrees Use Micro­ ata Sample Files were used to estimate the d conferred to U.S. citizens and permanent residents fraction of the workforce in NGA-relevant occupations were conferred to U.S. citizens. In addition, some that were U.S. citizens. The data show that at least permanent residents will become eligible for naturaliza- 75 percent of employees in NGA-relevant occupations tion, and thus for NGA positions, if they have been a were U.S. citizens; in most of these occupations, more permanent resident for at least 5 years.8 than 90 percent of employees were U.S. citizens (see The education data show that more than 176,000 Table D.5, Appendix D). In 2009, the occupations bachelor’s degrees and more that 32,000 master’s with the highest fraction of U.S. citizens were librar- d ­ egrees in fields of study that are highly relevant to ians (98 percent); surveying and mapping technicians the core and emerging areas were conferred to U.S. (97 percent); statistical assistants (97 percent); aerospace citizens and permanent residents in 2009 (Table C.7, engineers (97 percent); urban and regional planners Appendix C), with annual growth rates of 3.5 percent (97 percent); and surveyors, cartographers, and photo- for ­ achelor’s degrees and 4.2 percent for master’s b grammetrists (96 percent). Occupations with the lowest degrees over the 2000–2009 period. As illustrated in fraction of U.S. citizens were physical scientists, all other Figure 4.5, the percentage of these degrees conferred to (76 percent); computer software engineers (80 percent); U.S. citizens and permanent residents was stable over and astronomers and physicists (86 percent). the 2000–2009 period. Approximately 98 percent of Overall, the education and census data suggest bachelor’s degrees and 82 percent of master’s degrees that NGA’s U.S. citizenship requirement does not were conferred to U.S. citizens and permanent resi- dramatically reduce the “upper-bound” pool of quali- dents during this period (Table C.8, Appendix C). In fied new graduates or experienced employees. When contrast, the annual growth rate of doctorate degrees citizenship is factored in, the number of new graduates conferred to U.S. citizens and permanent residents at all levels decreases by 7 percent to 214,870, and the over the 2000–2009 period was a modest 0.8 percent, number of experienced workers decreases by 12 percent and the fraction of doctorate degrees conferred to U.S. to 2,417,964. citizens and permanent residents was lower in the sec- ond half of the decade. About 72 percent of doctorate ANTICIPATED AVAILABILITY OF EXPERTS degrees went to U.S. citizens and permanent residents in 2000 and 65 percent in 2009. Compared to the aver- Estimating the future availability of expertise in age for all core and emerging areas (Figure 4.5), there any field is inherently difficult and the estimates are are ­notably fewer U.S. citizens and permanent residents subject to large uncertainties that grow with the pro- in master’s and doctorate programs that are highly jection horizon. The Bureau of Labor Statistics makes relevant to crowdsourcing and in doctorate programs 10-year employment projections, but the projections reflect the anticipated demand for workers, not the 6 supply of workers, in a given occupation.9 Accurate See . 7 See . forecasts of the number of graduates can be made for 8 U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, A Guide to Naturalization, Chapter 4: Who is eligible for naturalization?, p. 9 See Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections 18, . Program, .

OCR for page 53
AVAILABILITY OF EXPERTS 63 FIGURE 4.5  Percent of degrees conferred by year to U.S. citizens and permanent residents across fields of study that are highly relevant to the core and emerging areas. SOURCE: Data from the U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Sta- tistics’ Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Completions Survey. Accessed via WebCASPAR. a few years into the future because the future gradu- trends in the number of graduates in relevant fields of ates are already attending classes and attrition rates are study, as described below. reasonably well known (NRC, 2000). As the projection horizon lengthens, however, the projections become Supply Outlook less reliable as a result of (a) misspecification of models, (b) data that are flawed or aggregated at an inappropri- The future supply of geospatial intelligence ex- ate level, and/or (c) unanticipated events. For example, pertise depends primarily on the number of people the profound effect of the September 11, 2001, terror- graduating with degrees in relevant fields of study. The ist attacks on scientific labor markets would have been committee projected the future supply of new gradu- difficult to incorporate into any forecasting model. ates by extrapolating trends in the number of degrees Future labor markets depend on the paths of multiple conferred to U.S. citizens and permanent residents over variables, including some that are well understood (e.g., the past decade to 2030. In its projections, the com- the age structure of the population) and others that are mittee assumed that the annual growth rates in degrees unpredictable (e.g., the career preferences of future col- conferred observed over the 2000–2009 period (i.e., lege students, future technology changes that will affect 3.5 percent per year for bachelor’s degrees, 4.2 percent the demand for talent, immigration policies). Given per year for master’s degrees, and 0.8 percent per year the uncertainties in labor forecast models as well as the for doctorate degrees) will continue. Based on this resource constraints of an NRC study, the committee ­assumption, the number of bachelor’s degrees conferred chose to estimate the future availability of geospatial in geospatial intelligence-related programs would be intelligence expertise by simply extrapolating recent expected to climb to 367,000 by 2030, the number of

OCR for page 53
64 FUTURE U.S. WORKFORCE FOR GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE master’s degrees conferred would be expected to exceed To illustrate the uncertainty associated with these 75,000, and the number of doctorate degrees conferred forecasts, the committee extrapolated the number of would be expected to rise to 6,000 (left column of new graduates under a high-growth scenario (50 per- Table 4.2). cent higher than the growth rate observed for 2000– 2009) and a low-growth scenario (50 percent lower than the observed growth rate). The results of these three scenarios are presented in Table 4.2 and illus- TABLE 4.2  Projected Number of Degrees in Geospatial Intelligence-Related Fields of Study Conferred to U.S. trated in Figure 4.6. The number of degrees projected Citizens and Permanent Residents in 2030 to be conferred in 2030 to U.S. citizens and permanent Scenario residents in geospatial intelligence-related fields of Degree Level Reference High Growth Low Growth study ranges from 312,000 to 648,000. However, the Bachelor’s degrees 367,000 525,000 256,000 actual values could be higher or lower, especially if any Master’s degrees 77,000 117,000 50,000 large shocks in the labor market occur over the next Doctorate degrees 6,000 7,000 6,000 20 years (e.g., NRC, 2000). TOTAL 451,000 648,000 312,000 The projections presented above are based on NOTE: Results are rounded to the nearest thousand. The projections were trends in the total number of graduates with degrees made using the standard future value formula (Brealey and Myers, 1996): beginning value × (1+g)N, where beginning value is the number of degrees that are highly relevant to the core and emerging ­ reas. a conferred in 2009, g is the observed annual growth rate of degrees conferred Only a small fraction of these graduates will have the over the 2000–2009 period, and N is the number of years that will elapse combination of knowledge and skills suited for a sci- between the beginning value year and the projection year (21 years). SOURCE: Projections were made based on data from the U.S. Department ence or analysis position at NGA. Thus, the projec- of Education, National Center for Education Statistics’ Integrated tions are an “upper bound” on the future availability of Postsecondary Education Data System Completions Survey. Accessed via WebCASPAR. expertise in geospatial intelligence. FIGURE 4.6  Observations (2000–2009) and extrapolations (2010–2030) of the number of degrees conferred to U.S. citizens and permanent residents by year across highly relevant geospatial intelligence-related fields of study. SOURCE: Data for 2000–2009 are from the U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics’ Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Completions Survey. Accessed via WebCASPAR.

OCR for page 53
AVAILABILITY OF EXPERTS 65 The committee’s best estimate of the current num- than 200,000 new graduates in relevant instructional ber of experts (Table 4.1), which is considerably lower program in 2009 and more than 2.4 million jobs in than the total number of graduates, does not lend itself relevant occupations. These graduates and experienced to extrapolation because the numbers are difficult to ag- workers likely have some knowledge and skills in a core gregate and previous growth rates cannot be estimated or emerging area and could potentially be trained for with any certainty. However, based on the evolution an NGA position. of the core and emerging areas (Chapters 2 and 3), it The actual number of graduates with expertise in is likely that the number of graduates in cartography a core or emerging area is likely considerably lower and photogrammetry will decline and that the number than the “upper-bound” estimates, especially for the of graduates in other areas, especially the emerging emerging areas, which are taught as comprehensive areas, will grow over the next 20 years. Thus, although programs in only a handful of universities. Factoring in the exact number cannot be projected with high con- other information—including the number of universi- fidence, it is likely that the supply of graduates in all ties offering programs in a core or emerging area, the geospatial intelligence-related fields of study except size of the professional community, and the number of photogrammetry and cartography will be robust for graduates from instructional programs that produce the the next 20 years. bulk of necessary skills—allows a qualitative estimate to be made based on expert judgment. The commit- SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS tee’s best estimate is that the current number of new graduates in geospatial intelligence areas is likely on the The first task of the committee was to estimate order of tens for photogrammetry; tens to hundreds for the number of experts in the core and emerging areas GEOINT fusion, crowdsourcing, human geography, now and over the next 20 years. The primary sources of and visual analytics; hundreds for geodesy, geophysics, expertise are new graduates in relevant fields of study, and cartographic science; hundreds to thousands for which are tracked by the Department of Education, remote sensing and forecasting; and thousands for GIS and employees working in occupations that require and geospatial analysis. relevant knowledge and skills, which are tracked by the Insufficient information was available to refine the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unfortunately these data are number of experienced workers. A “lower bound” was not ideal for addressing the task because the core and estimated by summing the number of jobs in the four emerging areas are embedded within or span multiple most closely related occupations: cartographers and fields of study or occupations; 109 fields of study and photogrammetrists; surveying and mapping techni- 36 occupations potentially provide some knowledge cians; geographers; and geoscientists, except hydrolo- and skills relevant to a core or emerging area. gists and geographers. For these four occupations, there An “upper bound” on the number of experts was were nearly 100,000 jobs in 2010. determined by summing the number of new graduates Estimates of the future availability of experts are from all relevant fields of study and the number of subject to large uncertainties, so the committee simply workers from all relevant occupations. This calculation extrapolated past trends of the number of new gradu- showed that there were more than 229,000 degrees ates with relevant degrees. Extrapolation of 10-year conferred in the 109 instructional programs in 2009 trends under high-growth and low-growth scenarios and more than 2.7 million jobs in the 36 occupations suggests that 312,000–648,000 degrees in relevant in 2010, the latest years for which data were available fields of study will be conferred to U.S. citizens and when the report was being written. NGA’s require- permanent residents in 2030. These figures place an ment for U.S. citizenship decreases the size of the labor “upper bound” on the future number of graduates pool by 7 percent for new graduates, with the largest in geospatial intelligence-related fields of study. The reductions at the doctorate level, and by 12 percent committee’s best estimate of the current number of for experienced workers, with the largest reductions in graduates with skills and knowledge in core and emerg- physical science and computer occupations. Account- ing areas is qualitative and could not be projected with ing for U.S. citizenship reduces the estimate to more confidence. However, it is substantially lower than the

OCR for page 53
66 FUTURE U.S. WORKFORCE FOR GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE total number of graduates in relevant fields of study and geodesy, geophysics, and cartographic science; hun- thus would yield substantially lower projections. Based dreds to thousands for remote sensing and forecast- on how the core and emerging areas have evolved over ing; and thousands for GIS and geospatial analysis. the past few decades, it is likely that the number of In addition, U.S. citizens currently hold more than graduates will rise in all areas except photogrammetry 100,000 jobs in occupations closely related to the core and cartography over the next 20 years. areas. If substantial on-the-job training is an option Based on the education and labor analysis, the for NGA, the current labor pool increases to 200,000 answer to Task 1 is that the current number of U.S. new graduates and 2.4 million experienced workers. If citizens and permanent residents with education is 10-year growth trends in the “upper-bound” estimate likely on the order of tens for photogrammetry; tens continue, the number of new graduates could reach to hundreds for GEOINT fusion, crowdsourcing, 312,000–649,000 by 2030. h ­ uman geography, and visual analytics; hundreds for