Measured demand is also sensitive to the level of aggregation of the analysis. Replacement rates arising from turnover will be higher when individual firms are the unit of analysis; they will be lower when industries are examined, since people can move among firms without increasing industry turnover overall.


Employer surveys are conducted to assess demand, but they do not always produce reliable information. Generally such information is credible for current employment levels and turnover rates. It is less credible for future employment and qualitative dimensions of demand. Such information has become difficult (and/or expensive) to collect.


Even specialists in computer hardware may not remain tied to a narrow set of industries producing computer-based hardware, since such hardware is becoming embedded in a growing range of products.


The number of computing professionals may not seem small compared to the number of scientists, engineers, or other technical personnel. For example, unpublished BLS tables for 1991 indicate that there were 95,000 employed mathematicians and mathematical science college and university teachers, 42,000 employed physicists and physics teachers, and 1.8 million employed engineers and engineering teachers (combined).


Defense cutbacks, however, do not have a clear-cut effect. For example, explained Jane Siegel, many defense systems have a 20-to 30-year lifetime, creating a demand for individuals to maintain and enhance if not create them. Also, defense systems may be associated with a requirement for hiring only U.S. citizens. For an interesting analysis of the employment implications of the recent dramatic events in Eastern Europe, see Andrew Pollock's "Technology Without Borders Raises Big Questions for U.S.," New York Times, January 1, 1992.


In the information technology industry the number of new transnational corporate technology alliances has increased from 348 in 1980–1984 to 445 in 1985–1989. The Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing Company now has 2,500 technical employees stationed abroad, triple the number the company had in 1980. See Pollock, "Technology Without Borders Raises Big Questions for U.S.," 1992.


For an interesting overview of the issue, see Pollock "Technology Without Borders Raises Big Questions for U.S.," 1992.


One example cited by workshop participants was the drop in demand for certain workers associated with mainframe systems, such as "tape hangers" and computer operators; an earlier example might be keypunch operators.


Observed Tora Bikson, "I think that what we are seeing is . . . every level shifting up, and there is not a large bunch of low-skill jobs at the bottom level."


Paul Maritz explained, "[This approach] really is very effective because we get to see these people in more than just a one hour or a half hour interview and we really find those people who are not only good at interviewing, but really are good at working as well."


Note also that some computing-related research can be done in other departments (e.g., interface design in psychology), involving Ph.D.s in both computer science and other fields.


See Computer Science and Telecommunications Board, Computing the Future: A Broader Agenda for Computer Science and Engineering , National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1992.


See, for example, American Mathematical Society, Employment and the U.S. Mathematics Doctorate: Report of the AMS Task Force on Employment , American Mathematics Society, July, 1992; Jean Kamagai and William Sweet, "Signs of Tighter Job Market

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