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Global Trends in Computer Tech no'Qgy and Their Impact on Export Control Committee to Study International Developments in Computer Science and Technology Computer Science and Technology Board Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1988

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. F,unctioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice ~airman, respectively, of the National Research Council. Support for this project was provided by the U.S. Department of State under Grant No. 1751-700306. Available from: Computer Science and Technology Board National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 Printed in the United State of America

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COMMITTEE TO STUDY INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS IN COMPUTER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY SEYMOUR E. GOODMAN, University of Arizona, Chairman DUANE A. ADAMS, Carnegie-Mellon University ISAAC L. AUERBACH, Auerbach Consultants WARREN DAVIS, Semiconductor Industry Association JACK J. DONGARRA, Argonne National Laboratory THOMAS F. CANNON, Digital Equipment Corporation DAVID C. GOSSARD, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ANTHONY C. HEARN, The RAND Corporation JOHN L. HENNESSY, Stanford University JOHN McCARTHY, Stanford University WILLIAM K. McHENRY, Georgetown University JOHN K. OUSTERHOUT, University of California at Berkeley THEODORE J. RALSTON, Microelectronics and Computer Technology Corporation (MCC) JAMES W. STANSBERRY, Stansberry Associates, Inc. JUDITH THORNTON, University of Washington CLARK WElSSMAN, Unisys Corporation TROY L. WILSON, IBM Corporation MARJORY S. BLUMENTHAL, Staff Director DAMIAN M. SACCOClO, Staff Officer MARGARET A. KNEMEYER, Staff Associate DONNA F. ALLEN, Administrative Secretary MARGARET A. CHENG, Secretary

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COMPUTER S CIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY B OARD JO SEPH F. TRAUB, Columbia University, Chairman JOHN SEELY BROWN, Xerox Corporation MICHAEL L. DERTOUZOS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology SAMUEL H. FULLER, Digital Equipment Corporation JAMES FREEMAN GILBERT, University of California at San Diego WILLIAM A. GODDARD ITT, California Institute of Technology JOHN E. HOPCROFT, CorneD University ROBERT E. KAHN, Corporation for National Research Initiatives SIDNEY KARTN, GA Technologies, Tnc. LEONARD KLEINROCK, University of California at Los Angeles DAVID J. KUCK, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign ROBERT LANGRIDGE, University of California at San Francisco ROBERT W. LUCKY, AT&T Bell Laboratories RAT RED DY, Carnegie-Mellon University MARY SHAW, Carnegie-Mellon University WILLIAM J. SPENCER, Xerox Corporation {VAN E. SUTHERLAND, Sutherland, Sproull & Associates VICTOR VYSSOTSKY, Digital Equipment Corporation SHMUEL WINOGRAD, IBM Corporation TRYING WLADAWSKY-BERGER, IBM Corporation MARJORY S. BLUMENTHAL, Staff Director DAMIAN M. SACCOCTO, Staff Officer MARGARET A. KNEMEYER, Staff Associate DONNA F. ALLEN, Administrative Secretary 1V

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COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND RESOURCES NORMAN HACKERMAN, Robert A. Welch Foundation, Chairman GEORGE F. CARRIER, Harvard University HERBERT D. DOAN, The Dow Chemical Company (retired) PETER S. EAGLESON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology DEAN E. EASTMAN, IBM, T. J. Watson Research Center MARYE ANNE FOX, University of Texas GERHART FRIEDLANDER, Brookhaven National Laboratory LAWRENCE W. FUNKHOUSER, Chevron Corporation Retired PHILLIP A. GRIFFITHS, Duke University CHRISTOPHER F. McKEE, University of California at Berkeley JACK E. OLIVER, CorneD University JEREMIAH P. OSTRIKER, Princeton University Observatory FRANK L. PARKER, Vanderbilt University DENTS J. PRAGER, MacArthur Foundation DAVID M. RAUP, University of Chicago RICHARD ]. REED, University of Washington ROY F. SCHWTTTERS, Harvard University ROBERT E. StEVERS, University of Colorado LEON T. SILVER, California Institute of Technology LARRY L. SMARR, National Center for Supercomputing Applications EDWARD C. STONE, JR., California Institute of Technology KARL K. TUREKIAN, Yale University RAPHAEL G. KASPER, Executive Director MYRON F. UMAN, Associate Executive Director v

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Preface and The Committee to Study International Developments in Com- puter Science and Technology was established under the auspices of the Computer Science and Technology Board (CSTB) of the Na- tional Research Council to evaluate trends in the development and international diffusion of computer technology and the ramifications of those trends for export control policy. Committee members were selected for their expertise in a variety of aspects of computer science and technology, for their familiarity with international trends in the field, and for their insights into the East Bloc or Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) environment. Through CSTB, the committee was asked by the Department of State to assess: o computer science and technology trends in Western nations o the status of computer capabilities and trends in East Blocs countries. The committee began its deliberations with meetings on Decem- ber 3 and 4, 1987. It met again in 1988 on March 24 and 25 and on 1 east Bloc countries covered are members of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance, which includes members of the Warsaw Pact plus Cuba, Mongolia, and Viet Nam. Throughout this report West or Western should be taken to include Japan and other countries in the Far East that are friendly in a military sense to the United States. . . V11

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. . . V111 PREFA CE July 6 and 7. Throughout the course of this study, the committee communicated extensively via electronic mail and other media. The full committee and its representatives were briefed by the intelligence community and the Department of State, and they sought informa- tion from the Departments of Commerce and Defense. Most of the material reviewed by the committee was unclassified. We conducted an assessment of trends in computer science and technology and, from that assessment, drew conclusions about the intrinsic controllability of computer technologies and the interplay among controls, technology development, and prospects for the U.S. computer industry. Those conclusions formed the basis for a brief set of recommendations for improving controls on the export of computer technologies. The committee focused on the supply of computer technologies. While we did not study military applications, our evaluation was intended to illuminate the relative military potential of various com- puter technologies. Neither did we conduct a comprehensive inquiry into technology transfer mechanisms or policy options, but we hope to have provided a technical foundation for more extensive analyses. Finally, we sought to avoid presupposing any one position regarding the intentions of the USSR and other CMEA countries. The report is a true committee effort, having drawn on diverse inputs from committee members who deliberated as a group on Al aspects of the material. The report took shape through the efforts of several individual members who coordinated specific technology assessments under tight constraints of time and resources. Thomas Cannon led a team consisting of Jack Dongarra, John Hennessy, Theodore Ralston, and Troy Wilson to structure the assessment of hardware technologies; Duane Adams organized the presentation of manufacturing technologies with assistance from Theodore Ralston; John Ousterhout worked with Anthony Hearn, Theodore Ralston, John McCarthy, and Clark Weissman to frame the discussion of software trends, incorporating an effort led by James Stansberry to evaluate integrated systems; Clark Weissman structured the as- sessment of computer network technologies with input from William McHenry; and William McHenry, working with Judith Thornton, developer! the discussion of computing in CMEA countries. Isaac Auerbach, Warren Davis, and David Gossard contributed to individ- ual sections and served as critics at large as the committee progressed from early to final drafts of its report.

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PREFA CE 1X A report of this size also tends to draw upon a wide array of additional contributors. In our case, the anonymous reviewers of the report convened by the National Research Council provided a number of helpful suggestions. Allen Locke kept us cognizant of the concerns of the Department of State and assured of their interest in our project. Others who offered guidance, input, and suggestions include Bruce Collier, Thomas Greene, Richard Judy, I,arry Kennedy, Robert Lerner, Oscar Rothenbeucher, Joe! Snyder, Ross Stapleton, Mitchel WaDerstein, Peter Wolcott, and the Eaton Corporation. We are grateful to ah of them. Responsibility for the statements presented in the final report remains, of course, with the committee. Seymour Goodman, Chairman Committee to Study International Developments in Computer Science and Technology

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