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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Contract No. NASW-99037, Task Order 105, between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
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Institute of Medicine
National Research Council
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
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COMMITTEE FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF NASA’S SPACE SOLAR POWER INVESTMENT STRATEGY
RICHARD J.SCHWARTZ, Chair,
Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana
MARY L.BOWDEN,
University of Maryland, College Park
HUBERT P.DAVIS, Consultant,
Canyon Lake, Texas
RICHARD L.KLINE,
United Satellite Launch Services, Great Falls, Virginia
MOLLY K.MACAULEY,
Resources for the Future, Inc., Washington, D.C.
LEE D.PETERSON,
University of Colorado, Boulder
KITT C.REINHARDT,
Air Force Research Laboratory, Albuquerque, New Mexico
R.RHOADS STEPHENSON,
Jet Propulsion Laboratory (retired), La Canada, California
Liaison from the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board
DAVA J.NEWMAN,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
Staff
KAREN E.HARWELL, Study Director,
Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board
LEE SNAPP,
NASA Administrator’s Fellowship Program—
NRC Visiting Fellow,
Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board
GEORGE M.LEVIN, Director,
Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board
MARVIN WEEKS, Senior Project Assistant,
Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board (May 2000 through March 2001)
MARY LOU AQUILO, Senior Project Assistant,
Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board (March through June 2001)
ANNA FARRAR, Administrative Associate,
Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board
AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD
WILLIAM W.HOOVER, Chair,
U.S. Air Force (retired), Williamsburg, Virginia
A.DWIGHT ABBOTT,
Aerospace Corporation (retired), Los Angeles, California
RUZENA K.BAJSCY,
NAE, IOM, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
WILLIAM F.BALLHAUS, JR.,
NAE, Aerospace Corporation, Los Angeles, California
JAMES A.BLACKWELL,
Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired), Marietta, Georgia
ANTHONY J.BRODERICK, aviation safety consultant,
Catlett, Virginia
DONALD L.CROMER,
U.S. Air Force (retired), Lompoc, California
ROBERT A.DAVIS,
The Boeing Company (retired), Seattle, Washington
JOSEPH FULLER, JR.,
Futron Corporation, Bethesda, Maryland
RICHARD GOLASZEWSKI,
GRA Inc., Jenkintown, Pennsylvania
JAMES M.GUYETTE,
Rolls-Royce North America, Reston, Virginia
FREDERICK H.HAUCK,
AXA Space, Bethesda, Maryland
JOHN L.JUNKINS,
NAE, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas
JOHN K.LAUBER,
Airbus Industrie of North America, Washington, D.C.
GEORGE K.MUELLNER,
The Boeing Company, Seal Beach, California
DAVA J.NEWMAN,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
JAMES G.O’CONNOR,
NAE, Pratt & Whitney (retired), Coventry, Connecticut
MALCOLM R.O’NEILL,
Lockheed Martin Corporation, Bethesda, Maryland
CYNTHIA SAMUELSON,
Logistics Management Institute, McLean, Virginia
WINSTON E.SCOTT,
Florida State University, Tallahassee
KATHRYN C.THORNTON,
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
ROBERT E.WHITEHEAD,
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (retired), Henrico, North Carolina
DIANNE S.WILEY,
The Boeing Company, Los Alamitos, California
THOMAS L.WILLIAMS,
Northrop Grumman, El Segundo, California
Staff
GEORGE LEVIN, Director
Preface
In 1968, Peter Glaser advanced the proposition that solar energy could be collected by Earth-orbiting satellites and then beamed by means of microwaves to power stations on Earth’s surface. The energy collected would be converted to electricity and introduced into commercial power grids for use by customers. Both the Department of Energy and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) examined the concept in the late 1970s and early 1980s; however, the program was canceled. In 1995, NASA decided to take a fresh look at the feasibility, technologies, costs, markets, and international public attitudes regarding space solar power (SSP). This Fresh Look study1 found that much had changed. Key technologies needed for the construction, deployment, and maintenance of SSP satellites, such as composite materials, modular fabrication, and robotics for construction and repair, had all shown significant advances. During this period, public concerns about environmental degradation grew. The committee also noted that such environmental concerns are, if anything, even more intense today than in the days of the Fresh Look study. As a result of this study, the U.S. Congress became interested in SSP and in FY 1999 appropriated funds for NASA to conduct the SSP Exploratory Research and Technology (SERT) program. The SERT program and its follow-on, the SSP Research and Technology (SSP R&T) program, constitute the effort assessed in this report.2
In March 2000, NASA’s Office of Space Flight asked the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board of the National Research Council to perform an independent assessment of the space solar power program’s technology investment strategy to determine its technical soundness and its contribution to the roadmap that NASA has developed for this program.3 The program’s investment strategy was to be evaluated in the context
of its likely effectiveness in meeting the program’s technical and economic objectives. The scope of this study did not include assessments of the desirability of space-generated terrestrial electrical power or assessment of the ability of NASA’s space launch development efforts to provide the capability needed to deploy a space solar power system.
The Committee for the Assessment of NASA’s Space Solar Power Investment Strategy of the National Research Council has completed an approximately 12-month study evaluating the technology investment strategy of NASA for SSP. A copy of the statement of task for this study is included in Appendix A. In conducting its review, the committee was not asked to assess, and it did not comment on, the ultimate economic viability of producing terrestrial solar power from space. The committee sees the wisdom of investing some of this nation’s resources in a number of potential approaches for dealing with future energy needs. This is particularly true when the committee considers the potential payoffs from this investment to other NASA, government, and commercial programs. This report provides an assessment of NASA’s management of its SSP investments and provides recommendations on how its technical investment process can be improved.
The committee recognized that NASA deliberately excluded “lowering the cost of access to space” (i.e., development of new Earth-to-low-Earth-orbit launch vehicles) in its roadmap for SSP technology development. The committee understands and accepts NASA’s rationale for this decision. NASA has a major program devoted to lowering the cost of access to space. Given the relatively small amount of funding earmarked by Congress for space solar power technology development, little could be accomplished (and much would be lost) by using these program resources to help lower the cost of access to space.
This study was sponsored by NASA and conducted by a committee appointed by the National Research Council (see Appendix B). The statement of task directed the committee to (1) evaluate NASA’s SSP efforts and (2) provide an assessment of its particular investment strategy for a potential program in SSP technology research and development. In order to effectively prioritize and balance investments across several technology areas, rigorous modeling and system analysis studies are usually performed. NASA began this process during the SERT effort. Preliminary technology and programmatic investments were presented to the committee based on this modeling and seem realistic, taking into account the level of funding made available to the program. The committee believes that this approach is one useful technique for assigning technology investment priorities and determining the relative payoff from technology investments. The committee discovered during its meetings, however, that many of the modeling inputs were suspect and that more refinement and better validation were necessary before additional decisions were made regarding technology investment balance. Consequently, the committee agreed that it would be inappropriate to evaluate the actual magnitude of funding in each technical area. Comments on the relative amounts for various technologies are included.
As a result of low overall program funds during the past 3 years, the program has been forced to make much smaller investments than desired for research in various technical areas. Due to this mismatch between the actual funding and program plan, the committee believed it was critical to evaluate the organizational foundations, modeling methodologies, and program management style on which the future SSP investment strategy will be based (despite levels of funding available to the program). These issues led the committee to perform a two-part assessment of the program, providing (1) an evaluation of the total program investment strategy, management, and organization and (2) an evaluation of each individual SSP-related technology area. The structure of the following report is based on these two factors.
The committee was not asked to evaluate technology development in SSP-related areas in the United States or worldwide or to evaluate any other NASA or non-NASA programs in technology development, whether related to SSP or not. As a result, no other technology program structure was assessed or mentioned in the report. However, knowledge of the state of the art in various technical areas is necessary to effectively evaluate any research and technology effort. Various options for generating power from space have been suggested (and researched) during the past 30 years, including the Lunar Solar Satellite Concept proposed by David Criswell, among others. The committee did not consider such competing concepts for solar power from space but concentrated solely on the NASA SERT program. To this extent, the committee has focused on the program at NASA and its relationship with industry and other efforts in SSP-related technology.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and tech-
nical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Minoru S.Araki, Lockheed Martin Corporation, retired,
Richard Green, International Power and Environmental Company,
Joel Greenberg, Princeton Synergetics, Inc.,
Nasser Karam, Spectralab, Inc.,
Thomas J.Kelly, Grumman Corporation, retired,
Leeka I.Kheifets, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI),
Mark S.Lake, Composite Technology Development, Inc.,
F.Robert Naka, CERA, Inc., and
Stephen M.Rock, Stanford University.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Gerald L.Kulcinski, University of Wisconsin, appointed by the NRC’s Report Review Committee, who was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
The committee also thanks those who took the time to participate in committee meetings and provide background materials (see Appendix E). The committee is especially indebted to Karen Harwell, study director, for her unflagging support of the committee and her help every step of the way. Lee Snapp, a NASA Administrator’s Fellowship Program visiting fellow, contributed to the introduction and international sections of the report, and George Levin, director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board, was particularly helpful in interpreting and clarifying the committee’s charge.
Richard J.Schwartz, Chair
Committee for the Assessment of NASA’s Space Solar Power Investment Strategy
Tables and Figures
TABLES
ES-1 |
Proposed Space Solar Power Program Resources Allocation, FY 2002 to FY 2006, |
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2-1 |
NASA’s SERT Program—Model System Category Definitions, |
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2-2 |
Proposed Space Solar Power Program Resources Allocation, FY 2002 to FY 2006, |
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D-l |
Proposed Space Solar Power Program Resources Allocation, FY 2000 to FY 2016, |
FIGURES
ES-1 |
Key recommendations to the NASA SSP program, |
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2-1 |
NASA’s SERT program: research and technology schedule of milestones roadmap, |
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2-2 |
NASA’s SERT program: strategic research and technology goals, |
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3-1 |
NASA’s SERT program integration process, |
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C-l |
Sample SERT progam executive summary chart on solar power generation activity, |
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C-2 |
Sample SERT program goal chart on solar power generation activity, |
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C-3 |
Sample SERT program milestones chart on solar power generation activity, |
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D-l |
Generic space solar power system, |
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D-2 |
Generic microwave and laser SSP systems, |