TRENDS IN OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR PEAKING OF CONVENTIONAL OIL PRODUCTION, AND POSSIBLE MITIGATION OPTIONS
A Summary Report of the Workshop
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
Support for this project was provided under Contract No. DE-AT01-05FE68970 between the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Academy of Sciences. Any views expressed in this publication are those of the workshop participants and do not necessarily reflect the views of the agency that provided support for the project.
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PLANNING GROUP FOR THE WORKSHOP ON TRENDS IN OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PEAKING OF CONVENTIONAL OIL PRODUCTION
MICHAEL P. RAMAGE, NAE, Chair,
ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company (retired), Moorestown, New Jersey
DAVID GREENE,
Oak Ridge National Laboratories, Tennessee
ROBERT L. HIRSCH,
Science Applications International Corporation, Alexandria, Virginia
SCOTT W. TINKER,
University of Texas, Austin
Project Staff
JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director,
Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (BEES)
PANOLA GOLSON, Program Associate (BEES)
BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS
DOUGLAS M. CHAPIN, NAE,1Chair,
MPR Associates, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia
ROBERT W. FRI, Vice Chair,
Resources for the Future (senior fellow emeritus), Washington, D.C.
RAKESH AGRAWAL,
NAE, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana
ALLEN J. BARD,
NAS,2 University of Texas, Austin
DAVID L. BODDE,
Clemson University, South Carolina
PHILIP R. CLARK,
NAE, GPU Nuclear Corporation (retired), Boonton, New Jersey
MICHAEL L. CORRADINI,
NAE, University of Wisconsin, Madison
E. LINN DRAPER, JR.,
NAE, American Electric Power, Inc. (emeritus), Austin, Texas
CHARLES GOODMAN,
Southern Company, Birmingham, Alabama
DAVID G. HAWKINS,
Natural Resources Defense Council, Washington, D.C.
MARTHA A. KREBS,
California Energy Commission, Sacramento
DAVID K. OWENS,
Edison Electric Institute, Washington, D.C.
WILLIAM F. POWERS,
NAE, Ford Motor Company (retired), Ann Arbor, Michigan
TONY PROPHET,
Carrier Corporation, Farmington, Connecticut
MICHAEL P. RAMAGE,
NAE, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company (retired), Moorestown, New Jersey
MAXINE SAVITZ,
NAE, Honeywell, Inc. (retired), Los Angeles, California
PHILIP R. SHARP,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
SCOTT W. TINKER,
University of Texas, Austin
Staff
JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director
DUNCAN BROWN, Senior Program Officer (part time)
ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Officer
MARTIN OFFUTT, Senior Program Officer
DANA CAINES, Financial Associate
PANOLA GOLSON, Project Assistant
Preface
The Workshop Planning Group, the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, and the National Research Council (NRC) staff wish to thank all of the presenters at the workshop. They all gave very well-focused, professional, and substantive talks and adhered to the guidance provided by the planning group so that everyone had sufficient time to express their individual views and opinions at the workshop. The workshop was open to the public, and there was active discussion during the full two days. Many participants noted the interesting presentations and discussions and remarked on the importance and timeliness of the subject.
The workshop was motivated by recent publications and analyses indicating that global production of conventional oil might peak within the next decade or so, and in some instances projections indicated that this peaking might occur within a few years, with potentially significant global economic disruptions. They were in sharp contrast to many other analyses that oil supply could meet global demand for some decades into the future and that any potential oil peaking was much further off in the future. Given the importance of the subject, the National Academies, through its Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, sought funding for a workshop that could bring together analysts with different points of view and begin a dialogue on the subject. The U.S. Department of Energy provided funding to support the workshop.
This workshop summary identifies key issues and questions raised by individuals at the workshop and possible follow-on studies that would be important to undertake. This summary does not include any consensus of the participants or the planning group, does not contain any conclusions or recommendations, does not contain advice to the government, and does not represent a viewpoint of the National Academies or any of its constituent units. It also does not prioritize the ideas and suggestions that were generated. No priorities are implied by the order in which ideas are presented.
The workshop summary was reviewed in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee and was reviewed in draft form by David Gray, Mitretek Systems; David L. Greene, Oak Ridge National Laboratories; John Heywood (NAE), Massachusetts Institute of Technology; John E. Johnston, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering (retired); Daniel Rose, University of Pennsylvania (emeritus); Daniel Sperling, University of California, Davis; and Scott Tinker, University of Texas, Austin.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they did not see the final draft of the workshop summary before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Trevor O. Jones (NAE), Biomec, Inc. Their effort in this task was much appreciated. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the NRC and the author.