Appendix A
Historical Scenarios
The following historical incidents provide some perspective on the magnitude of the consequences that might result from the kinds of terrorist attacks described in the scenarios in Chapter 3. These incidents also served as a basis for the development of those four scenarios. This is not a comprehensive list of all relevant historical incidents in the chemical industry.
High-Volume Storage Scenario
Toxic or Flammable Chemicals at Fixed Sites
Stage One Historical Analogies (single event, no cascading events)
Facility: Azote de France Fertilizer Factory (owned by Atofina)
Location: Toulouse, France
Date of Event: September 21, 2001
Chemical(s) involved: Ammonium nitrate
Event: Explosion
Consequences of Event: 30 killed (7 off-site), 800 hospitalized, 2,400 injured, shock wave of 3.4 on the Richter scale, 50-foot crater resulted; 500
homes uninhabitable and 85 schools or colleges damaged; chemical releases and structural damages at other facilities.1
Facility: Phillips Petroleum
Location: Pasadena, Texas
Date of Event: October 23, 1989
Chemical(s) involved: Plastics manufacturing
Event: An explosion in a polyethylene reactor was caused when a seal blew out on an ethylene loop reactor, releasing ethylene-isobutane and setting off a series of fires and explosions.
Consequences of Event: 23 fatalities, 130-300 injured; extensive facility damage.2
Facility: Marathon Refinery
Location: Texas City, Texas
Date of Event: 1987
Chemical(s) involved: Hydrofluoric acid
Event: Construction at Marathon refinery severs a pipe on an anhydrous hydrofluoric acid storage tank, releasing gas that forms a dense hydrofluoric acid vapor cloud that migrates through the community.
Consequences of Event: Approximately 4,000 people were evacuated and more than 1,000 were treated for injuries.3
Facility: BP Refinery
Location: Texas City, Texas
Date of Event: March 23, 2005
Chemical(s) involved: Unknown
Event: Overfill of flammable hydrocarbons in the tower of an octane boosting unit led to an explosion.
1 |
Dechy, N., T. Bourdeaux, N. Ayrault, M-A. Kordek, and J.C. Le Coze. 2004. First lessons of the Toulouse ammonium nitrate disaster, 21st September 2001, AZF plant, France. Journal of Hazardous Materials 111:131-138. |
2 |
U.S. Fire Administration. 1989. Phillips Petroleum Chemical Plant Explosion and Fire: Pasadena, Texas, USFA-TR-035. Emmitsburg, MD. |
3 |
Health and Safety Executive. Accident Summary: Release of Hydrofluoric Acid from Marathon Petroleum Refinery, Texas, USA, 30th October 1987. Available at http://www.hse.gov.uk/comah/sragtech/casemarathon87.htm. |
Consequences of Event: 15 people were killed and more than 100 were wounded.4
Facility: Union Carbide Corporation
Location: Bhopal, India
Date of Event: December 3, 1984
Chemical(s) involved: Methyl isocyanate (MIC)
Event: A relief valve lifted on a storage tank containing MIC, subsequently releasing a cloud of MIC gas onto residential areas surrounding the plant.
Consequences of Event: 3,000-7,000 people were killed immediately; 20,000 cumulative deaths; 200,000-500,000 injured; posttraumatic stress; continued medical consequences.5
Stage Two Historical Analogies (initial event with cascading events or major toxic release)
Facility: PEMEX LPG Terminal
Location: Mexico City
Date of Event: 1984 Chemical(s) involved: Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)
Event: The rupture of a transfer pipe produced a gas cloud that ignited a flare stack. At a late stage, the emergency shutdown button was pressed. About 15 minutes after the initial release the first boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion occurred. For the next hour and a half, a series of boiling liquid expanding vapor explosions followed as the LPG vessels exploded violently. LPG was said to rain down and surfaces covered in the liquid were set alight. The explosions were recorded on a seismograph at the University of Mexico.
Consequences of Event: 650 dead; 6,400 injured.6
Facility: SS Grandcamp.
Location: Texas City, Texas
Date of Event: April 16, 1947
4 |
See the following web site for more information: http://www.galvnews.com/story.lasso?ewcd=f21798a1b23f8be1. |
5 |
Lees, Frank. 1996. Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 3:A5.1-A5.11. |
6 |
Details available at http://www.hse.gov.uk/comah/sragtech/casepemex84.htm. |
Chemical(s) involved: Ammonium nitrate
Event: Cargo of ammonium nitrate on the ship SS Grandcamp caught fire and eventually exploded at the loading dock.
Consequences of Event: More than 560 killed and 2,000 injured (unable to apportion the number killed or injured by the immediate explosion from those killed by cascading events that reflect the second portion of the scenario); explosion heard 150 miles away. There was also an explosion of a second ship containing ammonium nitrate. Other chemical releases and structural damage occurred at the nearby Monsanto Chemical Co. and other facilities.7
Facility: Ashland Oil Company, Inc.
Location: Floreffe, Pennsylvania
Date of Event: January 1988
Chemical(s) involved: Oil
Event: A 4 million gallon oil storage tank owned by Ashland Oil Company, Inc., split apart and collapsed at an oil storage facility near the Monongahela River. The tank split while being filled to capacity for the first time after it had been dismantled and moved from an Ohio location and reassembled at the Floreffe facility. The split released diesel oil over the tank’s containment dikes, across a parking lot on an adjacent property, and into an uncapped storm drain that emptied directly into the river.8
Consequences of Event: The oil spill temporarily contaminated drinking water sources for an estimated 1 million people in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio; contaminated river ecosystems; killed wildlife; damaged private property; and adversely affected businesses in the area; more than 511,000 gallons of diesel fuel remain unrecovered and are presumed to be in the rivers.
Facility: Motiva Enterprises, LLC
Location: Delaware City, Delaware
Date of Event: July 17, 2001
7 |
See the following web site for more information: http://www.local1259iaff.org/report.htm. |
8 |
Ashland Oil Spill, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Available at http://www.epa.gov/reg3hwmd/super/PA/ashlandoil/. |
Chemical(s) involved: Sulfur dioxide and sulfuric acid
Event: Welding operations on a catwalk triggered a fire that propagated into an explosion in the confined headspace of a large storage tank, causing its catastrophic collapse and release of its contents.
Consequences of Event: Collapse of a spent sulfuric acid storage tank (more than 250,000 gallons), triggered releases from nearby tanks, killed one contract worker, and caused a large fish kill. Other commonly bermed tanks were immersed in concentrated sulfuric acid for several days until they could be drained, but they did not fail.9
Facility: First Chemical Corporation
Location: Pascagoula, Mississippi
Date of Event: October 13, 2002
Chemical(s) involved: Mononitrotoluene
Cause of Event: A 145-foot-tall mononitrotoluene distillation tower exploded, injuring three workers; large projectiles of debris ruptured a large mononitrotoluene storage tank, damaged other plant equipment, and ignited fires on- and off-site; projectiles missed nearby storage vessels containing high volumes of ammonia, hydrogen, refined petroleum liquids and gases, and other hazardous materials.10
Consequences of Event: Three workers injured; fires, projectiles, and other damage to the plant and plant equipment.
High-Volume Transport Scenario
Location: Baltimore, Maryland
Date of Event: July 18, 2001
Chemical(s) involved: Hydrochloric acid, ethylhexyl phthalate, and tripropylene glycol
Event: An eastbound CSX1 freight train derailed 11 of its 60 cars while passing through the Howard Street Tunnel in Baltimore, Maryland. Four of the 11 derailed cars were tank cars containing tripropylene, hydrochloric acid, and di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate. The derailed tank car containing tripropylene was punctured, and the escaping tripropylene ignited. The fire spread to the contents of several adjacent cars, creating heat, smoke, and
fumes that restricted access to the tunnel for several days. A 40-inch-diameter water main directly above the tunnel broke in the hours following the accident and flooded the tunnel with millions of gallons of water.
Consequence of Event: Five emergency responders sustained minor injuries while responding to the incident, but there were no deaths as a result of the event. Emergency operations in the City of Baltimore were occupied by the incident, and the north-south transportation corridor on the East Coast was disrupted for days. Total costs associated with the accident, including response and cleanup costs, were estimated at about $12 million.11
Location: Graniteville, South Carolina
Date of Event: January 2005
Chemical(s) involved: Chlorine
Event: Due to an improperly set switch, a 42-car train collided with a parked train. The accident led to the puncture of a tank car containing chlorine.
Consequence of Event: Nine people died as a result of exposure to chlorine; more than 250 were sent to the hospital, and 5,400 were evacuated.12
Location: Mississauga, Ontario
Date of Event: November 1979
Chemical(s) involved: Propane, styrene, chlorine, and caustic soda
Event: A Canadian Pacific train lost a wheel resulting in the derailment of 24 cars. Six of these cars separately contained propane, styrene, chlorine, caustic soda, and fiberglass insulation. The mixture of these chemicals caused an explosion that could be seen more than 100 km away and the mixture of chlorine and styrene, with sunlight as a catalyst, created mace.
Consequence of Event: Although there were no fatalities or serious injuries, approximately 250,000 residents were evacuated for almost a week.13
11 |
National Transportation Safety Board. 2001. Railroad Accident Brief. Available at http://www.ntsb.gov/publictn/2004/RAB0408.pdf. |
12 |
|
13 |
City of Mississauga. Train Derailment. Available at http://www.mississauga.ca/portal/cityhall/trainderailment. |
Chemical Shortage Scenario
The following flu outbreaks provide a basis for assessing the magnitude of these events.
|
Date |
Fatalities |
Mortality Rate |
Spanish flu (U.S.) |
1918-1919 |
670,000 |
6.5/1,000 |
Asian flu (U.S.) |
1957-1958 |
70,000 |
|
Normal year (U.S.) |
|
36,000 (200,000 hospitalizations) |
0.07/1,000 |
Misuse Scenario
Location: Chicago, Illinois
Date of Event: 1982
Substance(s) involved: Cyanide, Tylenol
Event: Seven people died as a result of taking Tylenol that had been contaminated with cyanide. A wave of copycat poisonings in the following years led to additional deaths.
Consequence of Event: To restore consumer confidence, new packaging procedures were implemented by all manufacturers. The Tylenol case was never solved. As a result, the company’s market value fell by $1 billion.14
Location: The Dalles, Oregon
Date of Event: 1984
Substance(s) involved: Salmonella typhimurium
Event: A series of restaurant salad bars were intentionally contaminated with S. typhimurium in an effort to affect the results of a local election.
Consequence of Event: Twelve percent of the town became ill and a third of the town’s restaurants were closed.
Location: On the East Coast
Date of Event: Fall 2001
Substance(s) involved: Anthrax
Event: Letters laced with the bacteria Bacillus anthracis, commonly known as anthrax, were mailed to two U.S. Senators and a variety of media outlets.
The anthrax attacks occurred over the course of several weeks beginning on September 18, 2001. The crime is suspected to be domestic and intended to frighten and raise public fear rather than kill large numbers of people.15 There were also occurrences of copycat letters being mailed. Contaminated sites were closed for cleanup ranging from three months to more than three and a half years. Estimated costs for decontamination of these sites were approximately $242.5 million.16
Consequence of Event: Five people were killed including two postal workers, a nurse, a Connecticut woman, and an American Media, Inc., worker. The crime remains unsolved.
Location: Belgium
Date of Event: June 1999
Substance(s) involved: Dioxin
Event: In June 1999 the Belgian government discovered that fat laced with dioxin—a carcinogenic by-product of the manufacture of some herbicides and pesticides—was used to make feed for poultry, pork, and cattle.
Consequence of Event: An initial ban on poultry resulted when some chickens showed levels of dioxin up to 1,000 times the accepted limits. Soon there was speculation that beef and pork could also be contaminated. Subsequently, the government withdrew all beef, pork, and poultry products from supermarkets throughout Belgium. Police went on alert to make sure no poultry, pigs, or cattle were slaughtered or transported anywhere and went from shop to shop to ensure that all contaminated food had been removed from the shelves. Other countries including Greece, Britain, France, Switzerland, Romania, and the United States imposed bans on imports of Belgian animal products. Russian health authorities also confiscated 20 tons of ground turkey because of fears of dioxin contamination. This had an almost immediate impact on jobs in the meat industry in Belgium where one company had to lay off 1,000 of its 1,200 workers. This crisis did not result in any injuries, and lab test results subsequently revealed inconsequential levels of dioxin in these foods.17