Freight-Demand Modeling to Support Public-Sector Decision Making (2010)

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6The private sector is largely responsible for development and management of the nation’s freight flow system, but pub- lic agencies at all levels face important investment and policy decisions that may affect those flows. Public sector transporta- tion decisionmakers need to understand the large and shifting increases in traffic generated, for example, by ports, inland terminals, and mega-destination centers, in order to make informed decisions about mobility improvements and other investments. Many states, metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs), and U.S.DOT have developed and implemented analytical tools and models to better understand the impacts of public and private freight investments and their associated impacts on economic development, environmental quality, and traf- fic operations. However, even with these tools, many agencies struggle to identify which freight mobility strategies will be most effective or even how to measure the success of differ- ent combinations. The goal of this project was to improve and expand the forecasting and analytical tools needed to evaluate freight mobility strategies, so that transportation decisionmakers faced with investment decisions can make more informed choices. The objectives of this project were to • Investigate, identify, and report on high-priority, high- payoff improvements in freight-demand models and other analysis tools; • Conduct research on several of these improvements; and • Develop a guidebook to assist model developers in imple- menting freight transportation planning, including these improvements. The report is organized as follows: • Chapter 2—Current Needs and Practices of states and MPOs in developing and applying freight models and ana- lytical tools; • Chapter 3—Research to Fill Critical Gaps lists the gaps developed from Section 2 and conducting additional research to fill three of those gaps; and • Chapter 4—Guidebook outlines the steps that can be fol- lowed to prepare freight forecasts. • Chapter 5—Conclusions and Recommendations provides this information from the research effort. C H A P T E R 1 Introduction