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Japanese officials are quick to point out that while political events in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union have greatly altered the strategic scene in Europe, the picture in the Eastern parts of the Soviet Union and the Pacific have not been changed significantly. In the strategic context, Japanese officials continue to view the Soviet Union as a potent military threat in the Pacific. There have been no reductions on Soviet naval forces nor have there been any indications of troop withdrawals from Soviet bases. From the political perspective, there remain major outstanding questions of Japan's relations with the USSR. First and foremost is the continuing question of Japan's Northern Territories which the Soviets have thus far refused to discuss with Tokyo. Continuing Soviet intransigence on this issue is a convincing signal to most Japanese political and business leaders that Soviet strategic objectives in the Pacific remain unchanged. Furthermore, a Soviet crackdown by force of arms in the Baltic or other dissident states would only reassure outside observers that the Soviet military is alive and capable of defending and perpetuating Soviet territorial claims. Nonetheless, a breakthrough on the Northern Territories issue is also possible, especially given Gorbachev's flair for the dramatic. We doubt, however, whether Gorbachev is prepared to meet Japanese expectations completely with an unconditional return of the islands. Instead, any moves by 28
APPENDIX A Principal Laws and Implementing Ordinances Governing Export Control in Japan A Law ~ * ~ is passed by the full Diet ~ Japan ' s Parliament) and cannot be overruled by an administrative or ministerial ordinance e Laws usually provide authority tc, the Cabinet to make necessary decisions regarding interpretations of the law. An Administrative ordinance ~ ** ~ is an executive order. It: is issued by the Cabinet under the Prime Minister's direction. It usually provides authority to the various ministries to issue supporting legislation to enact laws. A Ministerial Ordinance ~ *** ~ is a directive ordered by specific cabinet ministers. It may not overrule an Administrative Ordinance. Ministerial Ordinances often describe the specif ic regulations governing procedures set forth in Administrative Ordinances and Laws. O Foreign Exchange & Foreign Trade Control Law ~ Control Law ~ ~ Law No . 2 2 8, December ~ , ~ 9 4 9 ~ * ( Gaikoku Kawase Futatabi Gaikoku Boeki Kanri Ho This is the principal law governing export controls. It is the basic law on security trade control, and covers all facets of export control. O Export Trade Control Order (Export Order) (Cabinet Order No. 37S, December I, 1949 ~ ** ~ hut- This Order contains the Japanese control list, called Appendix ~ by the law. a Export Trade Control Regulation ( Export Rule ) (MITI Ministerial Ordinance No. 64, December I, 1949 ~ *** Yushutsu Boeki Kanri Kisoku This Rule contains provisions to enact the Control Law and other export control legislation. O Foreign Exchange Control Order (Exchange Order) (Cabinet Order No. 260, October Il. 1980 ~ ** Gaikoku Kawase Kanri Eli This Order enacts the Control Law and specif finally governs matters necessary for implementing control or ad justment of foreign exchange. Article ~ ~ of this Order governs service transactions and technology transfer that are deemed as hindering maintenance of international peace and security.
Outlook In the wake of the Toshiba Machine episode, Japan's moves to improve its system of strategic trade controls have had far- reaching implications for future Japanese positions in both the domestic and international arenas. First' and most obvious, is Japan's emergence as a more prominent player in multilateral policy issues. Through the almost complete renovation of its export control and export licensing system, Japan has taken a major step in demonstrating its willingness to accept both the responsibility for safeguarding Western strategic interests along with the economic benefits of its technological and industrial development. Japan can now boast of a system of strategic trade controls in which greater accountability and more extensive and thorough administration place it on a par with export control regimes in any COCOM-member country. Through the improvements in licensing and enforcement and its commitment to a more active role in COCOM, Japan has demonstrated that it can and will be an active, responsible and responsive member of the Western industrial alliance. Secondl y , Japan has established a strong foundation on which to build independent positions on strategic trade control issues. Formation of industry groups such as CIS.TEC, and the increased 30
o Ministerial Ordinance Concerning Control of Invisible Trade Transactions Relating to Foreign Trade (MITI Ministerial Ordinance No. 64, November 27, 1980 ~ *** Boeki gan`kei Boeki Gal Torihiki TO no Kanri Hi Fansuru Sho Rei This Order also contains provisions to enact the Control Law, and regulates trade in services.
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