APPENDIX 3
Coccidioides immitis
DISEASE BURDEN
Epidemiology
For the purposes of the calculations in this report, the committee estimated that there are 100,000 new cases of C. immitis infection each year in the United States. C. immitis infections are most prominent in several geographic locations in the United States, primarily California, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada. The committee estimated that half of new infections occur to people born in those regions and half occur to people who have migrated into those regions. This distinction has significant implications in other portions of the modeling exercise. The highest incidence was estimated to occur in people between the ages of 15 and 44 years of age. Table A3–1 shows the age distribution of incidence and mortality associated with C. immitis. The committee estimated that males and females are equally vulnerable to coccidioides infection. The committee estimated there are 117 deaths per year associated with the infection.
The treatment of HIV infection and AIDS and the effect of those changes on the health status and costs of care experienced by those with HIV has changed rapidly in recent years and is expected to continue to do so. Therefore, the committee has chosen not to include a scenario specific to infection in those
See Appendix 28 for more information.
Table A3–1 Incidence and Mortality Rates for Coccidioides
5-year Age Groups |
Total Population |
Incidence Rates (per 100,000) (5-year age groups) |
Cases |
0–4 |
20,182,000 |
0.00 |
0 |
5–9 |
19,117,000 |
0.00 |
0 |
10–14 |
18,939,000 |
57.73 |
10,934 |
15–19 |
17,790,000 |
57.73 |
10,270 |
20–24 |
18,473,000 |
57.73 |
10,665 |
25–29 |
19,294,000 |
57.73 |
11,139 |
30–34 |
22,376,000 |
57.73 |
12,918 |
35–39 |
22,215,000 |
57.73 |
12,825 |
40–44 |
19,934,000 |
57.73 |
11,508 |
45–49 |
16,873,000 |
57.73 |
9,741 |
50–54 |
13,351,000 |
14.65 |
1,956 |
55–59 |
11,050,000 |
14.65 |
1,619 |
60–64 |
10,191,000 |
14.65 |
1,493 |
65–69 |
10,099,000 |
14.65 |
1,480 |
70–74 |
8,865,000 |
14.65 |
1,299 |
75–79 |
6,669,000 |
14.65 |
977 |
80–84 |
4,419,000 |
14.65 |
648 |
85+ |
3,598,000 |
14.65 |
527 |
Total |
263,435,000 |
|
100,000 |
Age Groups |
Population |
Mortality Rates (per 100,000) |
% Distribution of Deaths |
<1 |
3,963,000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
1–4 |
16,219,000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
5–14 |
38,056,000 |
0.003 |
0.009 |
15–24 |
36,263,000 |
0.019 |
0.058 |
25–34 |
41,670,000 |
0.039 |
0.139 |
35–44 |
42,149,000 |
0.030 |
0.109 |
45–54 |
30,224,000 |
0.054 |
0.139 |
55–64 |
21,241,000 |
0.064 |
0.115 |
65–74 |
18,964,000 |
0.148 |
0.239 |
75–84 |
11,088,000 |
0.147 |
0.139 |
85+ |
3,598,000 |
0.181 |
0.055 |
Total |
263,435,000 |
0.045 |
1.0000 |
with HIV/AIDS. Consideration of this population would result in differences in the calculations achieved with this model, but the uncertainties associated with doing so were thought to be quite extreme.
Disease Scenarios
For the purposes of the calculations in this report, the committee estimated that 40% of all C. immitis infections were asymptomatic. Symptomatic infections manifested as mild respiratory illness with and without complications of erethyma nodosum, pneumonia, and as a persistent, disseminated infection. The health utility indices associated with C. immitis infection vary from .65 for hospitalization with disseminated infection to .90 for the prolonged outpatient phase of a persistent, disseminated infection. Table A3–2 illustrates the estimated number of cases in each health state, the duration of time that state is experienced, and the health utility index (HUI) associated with each state.
COST INCURRED BY DISEASE
Table A3–3 summarizes the health care costs incurred by C. immitis infections. For the purposes of the calculations used in this report, it was assumed that the mild respiratory illness associated with C. immitis infection leads to the costs of a limited physician visit and that only half of those with this illness would seek medical attention. It is assumed that 100% of people with more severe complications seek medical attention. Those people with complications of erythema incur costs associated with the respiratory illness (limited physician visit, diagnostic, medication) and several specialist visits for assessment and treatment of the complications.
Outpatient pneumonia is assumed to be associated with physician visits, diagnostics, and medications. Inpatient hospital costs were included for the few patients who were assumed to require it. Persistent/disseminated infection was associated with several hospitalizations as well as numerous outpatient visits, diagnostics, and medications over a 3-year period.
Although the health care scenarios are the same for those who would be immunized in infancy and as migrants (at older ages), the costs are calculated separately to allow for the effects of discounting, which will be different in infants (who might have a lag of many years until disease manifestations) and in migrants (some of whom will have much less of a lag between immunization and prevention of disease and the associated health care costs).
VACCINE DEVELOPMENT
The committee estimated that development is feasible but is not imminent. The estimates are that it will take 15 years until licensing and that $360 million needs to be invested.
Table A3–2 Morbidity Scenarios for Coccidioides Infection
|
No. of Cases |
% of Cases |
Committee HUI Values |
Duration |
Total Deaths |
117 |
|
||
Total Cases (new symptomatic and asymptomatic infections) |
100,000 |
|
||
No Symptoms |
|
40% |
1.00 |
|
Mild respiratory illness |
|
17% |
0.81 |
0.0192 (1 week) |
Mild respiratory illness with erythema complications |
|
3% |
|
|
mild respiratory illness |
|
0.81 |
0.0192 (1 week) |
|
erythema nodosum/toxic erythema/arthritis |
|
0.75 |
0.0575 (3 weeks) |
|
Pneumonia: outpatient only |
|
30% |
0.75 |
0.0575 (3 weeks) |
Pneumonia |
|
5% |
|
|
self-limiting: inpatient |
|
0.73 |
0.0192 (1 week) |
|
self-limiting: outpatient |
|
0.75 |
0.0575 (3 weeks) |
|
Persistent/disseminated |
|
5% |
|
|
P/D: inpatient |
|
0.65 |
0.0384 (2 weeks) |
|
P/D: outpatient: 3-year period |
|
0.90 |
3.0000 (3 years) |
Table A3–3 Health Care Costs Associated with Coccidioides Infection
|
% with Care |
Cost per Unit |
Units per Case |
Form of Treatment |
Mild respiratory illness |
50% |
$50 |
1.0 |
physician a |
Mild respiratory illness with erythema complications |
|
|||
mild respiratory illness |
100% |
$50 |
3.0 |
physician a, diagnostic a, medication b |
erythema nodosum/toxic erythema/arthritis |
100% |
$100 |
2.0 |
physician b |
Pneumonia: outpatient only |
100% |
$250 |
1.0 |
outpatient treatment (physician a and b, diagnostic a, medication b) |
Pneumonia |
|
|||
self-limiting: inpatient |
100% |
$4,000 |
1.0 |
inpatient treatment |
self-limiting: outpatient |
100% |
$250 |
1.0 |
outpatient treatment (e.g., physician a and b, medication b, diagnostic a) |
Persistent/disseminated |
|
|||
P/D: Inpatient |
100% |
$4,000 |
2.0 |
inpatient treatment |
P/D: outpatient: 3 -year period |
100% |
$50 |
7.0 |
outpatient treatment (physician a, diagnostic a, medication b) |
VACCINE PROGRAM CONSIDERATIONS
Target Population
The target population for this vaccine is approximately 1,035,300 people: all infants born in the geographic regions identified above and migrants into the area. The model assumes that half of immigrants into the area from the western part of the United States would not have had the vaccine already. For the purposes of the model, the average age for migrants into the area is estimated to be 27.9 years, and immunization is estimated to occur within 1 year of migration. The committee estimated that 90% of infants would receive the vaccine, compared with only 10% of migrants.
Vaccine Schedule, Efficacy, and Costs
The committee estimated that this would be a relatively low-cost vaccine, costing $50 per dose. Vaccine administration would cost an additional $10. The committee has accepted default assumptions for this vaccine that it will require a series of 3 doses and that efficacy will be 75%. Table 4–1 summarizes vaccine program assumptions for all vaccines considered in this report.
RESULTS
If a vaccine program for c.immitis were implemented today and the vaccine was 100% efficacious and utilized by 100% of the target population, the annualized present value of the QALYs gained would be 1,700. Using committee assumptions of less-than-ideal efficacy and utilization and including time and monetary costs until a vaccine program is implemented, the annualized present value of the QALYs gained would be 240.
If a vaccine program for c.immitis were implemented today and the vaccine was 100% efficacious and utilized by 100% of the target population, the annualized present value of the health care costs saved would be $44.8 million. Using committee assumptions of less-than-ideal efficacy and utilization and including time and monetary costs until a vaccine program is implemented, the annualized present value of the health care costs saved would be $6.3 million.
If a vaccine program for c.immitis were implemented today and the vaccine was 100% efficacious and utilized by 100% of the target population, the annualized present value of the program cost would be $190 million. Using committee assumptions of less-than-ideal efficacy and utilization and including time and monetary costs until a vaccine program is implemented, the annualized present value of the program cost would be $53.4 million.
Using committee assumptions of time and costs until licensure, the fixed cost of vaccine development has been amortized and is $10.8 million for a C. immitis vaccine.
If a vaccine program were implemented today and the vaccine were 100% efficacious and utilized by 100% of the target population, the annualized present value of the cost per QALY gained is $85,000. Using committee assumptions of less-than-ideal utilization and including time and monetary costs until a vaccine program is implemented, the annualized present value of the cost per QALY gained is $240,000.
See Chapters 4 and 5 for details on the methods and assumptions used by the committee for the results reported.
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