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I.?1PAC 1 OF DEFENSE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPME`NT IN~JEST}£ENTS ON THE CIVILIAN SECTOR George Gamota Univers ity of Michigan There are very few of man' s artifacts that cannot be equally well used for peaceful or warlike purposes; what matters is the intention. Arthur C. Clarke It is very good for us. . . to reflect on the possibility that, .; . if a few ingenious men had failed us, most of us would have died twenty years ago, and the whose of Europe might have been a desert at this moment. Lord Bowden at ~ - Day 20th Anniversary Defense technology has had a profound effect on both the military and the civilian way of life. From the invention of the wheel and spear to man's outreach in space, defense technology has played a stgrlal role in our ~cechnical advances. Support of technology (basic and applied research) by the Department of Defense (DOD) has been of significant importance in the last 40 or so years, and, unless we disturb the infrastructure, it promises to play a key role in coming years. ~ To be sure, predicting the futures is difficult, and changes In government policy or funding levels can alter D<)D's role. Nevertheless, based on past performance, DOD' s impact on the civilian sector (particularly if taken over a long time span) is equal ~co, or even greater than, the impact of Japan's Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) on Japanese industry. This paper will review some of the areas in which DOD has had a major role and will try to predict which civilian sectors will be affected most by current DOD-funded research projects, including the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) . The SDI's political implications will not be at issue--rather, the program will be considered from ache perspective of a large government program that might result in new technologies with commercial applications. For technology transfer to occur successfully, however, certain elements must be in place. These include quality basic research in the nation's universities, open and free dissemination of info~-luation, and a heal~chy, compeci~cive U. S . industry. A produc~ci~re federal Iabora~ory system is 243
important al so, but that affects national security more than the commercial spinoff of DOD technology. BRIEF HISTORY OF DEFUSE R£S-~CH This paper is not intended to be a thorough review of the history of defense research, since much has been written on the subject. But, a few examples will show how coo?era~cion between the defense and civilian sectors began and how it has benefited both parties. One of the first instances of cooperation between the scientific and defense establishmen~cs in the Wes~cern World occurred in 17th- century England and involved the development of the chronometer. 3 That development not only gave the Royal Navy an overwhelming edge in conquering the ocean=, but it also provided England witch a definite commercial advantage. Following the warships were merchants, promoting trade. To accomplish this feat, the first modern military-industrial~academic complex was forged. Professors from Cambridge and Oxford, together with local industry and entrepreneurs, conducted research to solve military problems. In ache United States, an early spinoff of defense research car be found during ache presidency of Thomas Jefferson. Thwarted by Congress in crying Act establish ~ civilian government agency for the purpose of exploration, Jefferson, under ache aegis of national security, involved the Army in exploration. Two of the most famous explorers were Army officers Lewis and Clark, who opened the Nor~chwest passage, providing the research community with in~ral''=ble information: and the commercial sector with extremely valuable new . materials and trade. Exploration was not limited to the Army. The U. S . Navy charted much of what we know about both poles and the Far East. Exploration of space would have been the task of the Air Force were it not for the creation of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) . But, it might be noticed, the vast ma; oddity of NASA' s astronauts and many in senior administrative positions are active or retired military personnel. The concept of major government support for basic research BiSO began with DOD. In 1946, ~chrough an act of Congress, the Navy created the Office of Natural Research (ONR) arid began to fund basic research in U.S. universities. It also created the Natural Research I-aboratory, which made significant contributions not only to science but also to technology. In fact, OUR was so successful that, when Congress finally coerced the National Science Foundation (NSF), much of ache ONE apparatus was brought to NSF, as was its first director, Dr. Alan T. Waterman. - 244
THE B IRTH OF HI GlI TECHNOLOGY I t is recognized generally that research benefits ache nation more than it benefits any individual company; and; private firms tend to devote fewer resources to research and development (Red) ~ than they should. In Japan, industrial under~nvestment is remedied by t£~TI. In ache United S tates, DOI) performs a s imilar role . Figure 1 shows that the 1960' s experienced a period of growth in national R&D expenditures . A ma] or factor in that growth was support of microelectronics, materials, and space research by DOD and NASA. However, that support came to an abrupt halt about 1970 There were many reasons for the break--the Vietnam War, the awakening of the environmental movement ~ and, perhaps, that the United S tates was beginning ~o take technology for granted. This feeling permeated the whole nation, including the military. The military was particularly ~down" on basic research, which was being performed mostly in universities. Neglect of such research by I:>OD continued until about 1978. Only after several substantive studies by the Defense Science Board and, later, by ache President's Office of Science and Technology Policy was the trend of decreased interest finally reversed. It took three administrate ons to bring about ache reversal; by Lichen, more than two Chards of the funds ng base had been eroded. Figure 2 shows the pattern of DOI) research funding and ache effect of inflation on that pattern.. Publicly, many reasons are given for the lack of DOD support for R&D. Me Mansfield Amendment, passed in 1969, is cited by many as the main culprit; others cite lack of interes~c by researchers-in performing military research; still others blame it on lack of funds . There are elemen' s of Crunch in all of ache above, but perhaps the prime reason was lack of interes t on the part of the military and lack of civilian personnel in the Pentagon willing deco raise this as an issue. One must remember, too, tha~c there was a lack of in~ceres~c in science not only in DOD, but in the government and the nation in general . While today one hears about the pass ible creation of a cabinet post and a department of science and technology, only 13 years ago (and 3 years af~cer an American set foot on the moon), ache White House abolished the Office of the Presiden~c's Science Advisor. In spite of the downturn, ache fruits of early R&D imtesmes~ts began to pay off. A great many of today's U.S. exports depend on technology developed during those early years. In microelectronics, while prince f.unds~were used in addi~cion deco those from DOD and NASA to develop integrated circuit ( IC) technology, the math interest came from DOD, and DOD was a guaranteed customer as well. ~ Irt the first half of the 1960's, the government bought more than 90 percent of ache electronics produces desire loped under federal R&~) . Tony, the government buys only 7 percent of those products; the rest are used in civilian apple cations e - 245
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The U.S. aircraft industry also depends almost exclusively on DOD for its funding. In fact, until recently, most civilian aircraft were based on military models. Both the Boeing 747 and the McOonnei: Douglas DC-10 were developed for possible sale to the military for transport purposes; the sale went eventually to Lockheed for the C-5A. 1~., computer industry has been even more dependent upon DOD R&D funds. Again, ache government not only stimulates the work, but is also a guaranteed cus~comer. The driving forces for faster machines with larger capacities have been the mili~cary needs for stun ation nuclear weapons detona~cions, cryptography, improved weather predict' on, and a number of other specialized applications. As the R&D costs are written off by the government, however, the prices become compet~.ci~re, and ache civilian market enjoys the benefits. Since its creation, ache Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency . (DAREA) has played ~ key rote in stimulating rapid advances in computers. For example, DARPA pioneered in the use of networking on a major scale with ARPANET. Only recently has the National Science Foundation, through its supercomputer initiative, become a major federal funding source for computer technology. RECENT EXPERI£NCE The rote of DOD in stimulating new technology has decreased in recent years, but it stall can play a catalytic role. Two examples are the Manufacturing Technology (Man Tech)~progr=~ and The Very High Speed Integrated Circuit (V8SIC) program. The VHSIC program is a particularly good example of the way in which DOD has tried to steer technology in a direction that industry might not have gone by itself. In the late 1970's, it became clear that industrial needs (particularly those that would provide the quickest and largest return on investment) and those of DOI) were not ache sue. While DOD needed new, faster, more compact electronics capable of multipurpose use, industrial R&D was Sicily focusing on expanding the use of current technology. By direct funding of MUSIC technology in industry, DOD took a commercially oriented approach. The departmen~c collaborated directly with universi~cies and industry in developing technology for the marketplace. The key, or carrot, used with indus~cry was, again, a guaranteed customer approach--~che government would buy all tiae units produced. By several accounts, the MUSIC program has been a success, and not only for DOI); products Rising MUSIC technology are starting to appear in the civilian marice~cplace . However, there were, and still are, problems. 'the two main ones are the high cost of VHSIC packages and U.S. industry's fear of being barred from selling products using VHSIC technology in international marice ts . - 248 _
A maj or concern is to avoid giving this new technology to ache nation's adversaries. In a recently released document, the Secretary of Defense provides several hundred examples of current Soviet military equipment and weapons that have benefited from Western ~cechnolo~. The great maj ority of those technology es come from the Uni ted S tares . There will be little national security benefit derived from MUSIC if we lose ache technological leverage needed deco offset the numerical advantage of our adversaries in most weapons systems and manpower. There is a tradeoff between wide dissemination of technical information and national security benefits . Ul~c~mately, the VHS IC program could have a greater impact on the civilian sector than on ache military, but? at ache same time, fur latest technology would be easily accessible to our adversaries. lathe Man Tech program also has provided an early lead for US S ~ industrial "factory of ache futures research. Much more research is necessary, since foreign commercial competitors are either right behind us or, in fact, ahead. What is certain is that wi shout the Man Tech program, the U. S . manufac~curing industry would be even farther behind its competitors. THE ROLE OF HIGHER EDUCATION Most of the scientists and engineers who received their higher education be tween the late i950 ' s and early 1970' s hare, at one time or another, been dependent on DOD or NASA support. However, DOI) funding decreased sharply after the Mansfield Amendment, and Chat from NASA dropped after the end of ache Apollo miss ion . lathe DOD-university link began to deteriorate, and it was not un~ci: 1977 chat notice was taken of the consequences of that break. At that point, DOl) realized two things: It cannot by itself perform all the research of potential inheres to the mili~cary, and it cannot train scientists ant engineers direct y out of high school. It is apparen~c that DOD steeds the univers it:y link as much as, or even more titan, the universities need COD. However, industry now has realized the same need, and ache industrial sector is increasing its contacts with ache nation's colleges and universities; Of even greater concern to botch the commercial ~d the military sectors is the invest:mene being made in our best urti~rersities by foreign companies. Figure 3 compares graphical.ly ache changes in atti~cude taken by several coteries toward producing scientists and engineers active in Rid). lathe largest rise in R&D personnel has been in the Soviet Union, but there also have been dramatic increases in Japan and Western Europe. Commercial competition for qualified personnel is even tougher given the fact that, in the United S~cates, a fair number of the scientists and engineers are engaged in defense work, while, in Japan, most are involved in civilian R&D. - 249
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Paradoxical' y, DOl) is now, more than ever, dependent on a strong national technology base but, as a portion of R&D, is spending less for it. It is ironic that ~ n the last several years ' buildup of DOD' s R&D, ache Technology Base Program (DOD' s 6 . ~ and 6 . 2) has dwindled ~ see Figures 4 and 5 ~ . The blame for this must be shared by both ache executive and ache legisla~ci~re branches. Apparen~cly, DOD has higher prior' ties than research <or training, and Congress responds more quickly to pressure from industrial consti~cuents, where all the ~ obs are, than to academics, who are of Scan of little political value. The industrial sector might do well to lobby for the universities as hard as it does for itch own causes, not through good will or charity, but for tics own future and well-being. Figure 6 shows both DOD and federal support of teas to research, app lied research, and development for 1984. As can be seen, DOD is a minor contributor in basic research, and, even in applied research, DOD funding is not a major factor. Dr. Joseph A. Boyd, Chief Executive Officer of Harris Corporation, a major electronics firm, made the point well at a recent conference: Universities are the only place to train the advanced students who come up witch new ideas, who push the state of the art in science and technology.... National and DOD goals cannot be achieved without ache univers ity community .... The United S Lances Bust reestablish its lead in world technology, especially e iectronics and computers . The DO{) is the only organization wi Oh the reason, ache leadership, and the resources to accomp fish this. DOD must be ache cri~cical driving force in supporting faculty and students in universities. Full cooperation hong DOD, universities, and industry is absolutely essential. THE INDUSTRIAL LINK The position of U.S. h~gh-technology industry in world competition has been slipping. It was natural that the overwhelming edge the United States had for 20 or so years after World War IT would shrink as Europe and Japan rebuilt echoic economies aggressively. Figure 7 shows the ratio of RED to gross national product for several Westerns European countries and Japan. When comparing the United States and Japan, note music be taken, again, that of the ~cotal R&D expenditures in the United States, 40 percent is spent by DOD, whereas, in~Japan, it is all used for commercial purposes. Most of the countries shown in Figure 7 compete directly witch the United States, even inside our borders. More often than not, they are using technology developed first in the United States, a large percentage of which was sponsored by DUD . Much has been and can be written on this, but, in ache final analysis, the problem is not them but us: U.S. industry must make tics products quicker, better, and cheaper. he Japanese, par~cicularly, threaten to saturate U. S . markets with their products . - 2Sl
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While Japanese color teie~ris~ons and audio equipment are ubiquitous already, Japan' s rapid rise in other high-techr~ology products is impressive, and no slowdown is in sight. Defense industries are in Ache best position to transfer technology into products quickly. Small business also is key Deco the successful u~cilization of defense R&D, and Ache go~rernment's Small Business Inno~ratios1 Research (SBIR) program is helping. But, more needs to be done . Small bus inesses seed to improve their relationships with ussi~rerst~cies, and the federal governmen~c (DOD) can enhance that interaction. Neither the universities, GOD, nor big industry knows how to treat small businesses; yet, by all accounts, most innovative ~ application oriented) work is done by small fs was . At the same dime, small firms have neither ache time, staff, nor money deco deal witch cumbersome federal regulations. Also, they cannot afford deco be involved in one- sided agreements with large companies or seek atten~cion from urti~rersities more interested in substantial donors OUTLOOK The largest technology program on the horizon is the Stra~cagic Defense Initiative. If implemented successfully, i~c could provide a maj or influx of new government money for support of high- technology industry. The question is, Will it? The problems are mostly political and not unlike those of the late 1960' s and early 1970' s . The rationale and the players are di~fferan~c, but ache result could be the same, that is, severely Unaging a real. opportunity for DOD to provide, once again, the impend for a revitalization of U. S . high technology. The opportuni~cy is not yet loose, but time is short. Tuning primarily to the Department of Energy (DOE) weapons laboratories is nor the answer if DOD really wants the SDI work to be commercialized. Federal weapons laboratories play a vital role in national security, but they do a poor ~ ob of ~cechnolog~r transfer. Chile DOD woes the patent law system as a major st~ula~cor, ache DOE weapons. laboratories we it as an inhibitor. This must be changed if the United States is to benefit from the SDI as tt did from precarious DOD investments. The DOD's SDI program office must work in concert with the nation's best universities. Creating its own-cadre of scholars will not suffice. President Johnson tried it unsuccessfully with the SEMIS pro] ect, and, w~ th few exceptions, the a~ctempt failed. The SDI program has many opportunities for civilian applications of teas ic research . Several areas of SDI interest overlap those noticed recently by ache National Academy of Sciences/National Academy 256
If Engineering/Institute of Medicine in their outlook for science and technology: . . Advanced Polymeric Compost res . New manmade polymeric composites are stranger and s Differ than the best structural materials now available. Such composites are being used already in the manufacture of aircraft and sports equipment, and they are on the verge of being used in autos, heavy equipment, robotics, and other commercial areas. Supercomputer Architectures. Faster computers, accompanied by refinements in software, will expand ache applications of computers deco ever more complex scientific and technological problems . Computer so mulation wit! affect aircraft des ign, the development of new pharmaceuticals, the design of energy storage systems and industrial product and the testing of new generations of IC chips. Better and real- time forecasts will be made of weather, atmospheric phenomena, wind shears, tornadoes, and earthquakes. In medal mine, real-time simulation of surgery will have a dramas c effect on providing better health care. Solar Terrestrial Plasm Physics . Better ur~ders~cand~ng o f ache interactions of charged particles with each other and wi oh electrical and magnetic fields w'll help in the effort to attain peaceful uses of fusion, will improve understanding of the effects of sunspots on magnetic storms and on comm~cat~on systems, and will provide invaluable data for breaking new ground in understanding such basic questions as the origin, behavior, and location of black holes. Certainly, Arthur Clarke's assertion could be verified again, as it has in the pase--sc~ence and technology have both peaceful and me ~ itary uses, and one cannot predict their event applications. coNcLusioN In s''mmary, the role of the federal government in stimulating high~technology industry has diminished somewhat. At the same time, the DOD role has risen significantly. Figure ~ shows how the federal fraction of the total national R&D effort has decreased, while DOD's share has increased. Today, DOD is in a unique position to help U.S. industry and itself with a wise investment of its R&D funds, be they for SDI, supereomputers, sensors, or Ion. But, times hare changed, and the approach must be thought through carefully. This is not the time for a " seat of the pants approach"; strategic planning and coopera~ci~re sp irit are needed on all fronts . In autumn 1986, a Robot with laser eyes took its first steps at Ohio State University. 4 That project, sponsored primarily by DOD, represents the convergence of advances in robotics, computer science, - 257 -
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biology, anatomy, and medicine. Its potential applications, both defense and commercial, are limited only by one's imagination. But, ~ he robot' s e~ren~cual commercialization potential must be outlined immediately. If this is not done, ache Japanese will discover quickly its civilian uses, and the Soviets will use it in military systems. The DOD has p rayed the catalytic ro te, but i t is up to everyone e Is e in~rol~red in technological advance to ensure that the nation benefits. This means that those in universities, industry, and go~rernmen~e must put aside their own interests and prejudices and work together. A quotation from President Truman' s September 6, 194S, - speech is as true today as it was then: No nation can maintain a position of leadership in the world of today unless ~ t develops to the full its scientific and technological resources. respons Abilities unless it the work o f and encourages its own laboratories. No government adequate ly mee ts i ts generous By and inte lligen~cly suppor as science in univers ity, incus try, and - 259 _O
REFERENCES 1. D. J. Kevles. The Physicists. Vintage Books, 1917. 2. L. R. Smith and J. J. Koriesky. The Scare of Academic Scudy. Change Magazine Press, 1977. liens Clark . "Navigation, the Go~rernmen~c, and Indus try: An Ancient Partnership, n Journa] of the lus~it?~re of Naviga~c~on, ttol. 26, No. [(Spring 1979~. 4. The DOI' Role In the Semiconductor Technology. EMIGRE Corporation, 1976. . Richard C. Levin. "The Semiconductor Industry. ~ In Gove~ene and Tec.hnica] Progress. Edited by R. Nelson. New York: Pergamon Press, ~ 982a 6. I). C. Mowery and N. Rosenberg. "The Commercial Aircraft Industry. n In Gove~mene and Technical Progress. Edited by R. Nelson. New York Pergamon Press, 1982. G. B. Katz and A. Phillips. "The Computer Industry. n In Government and Technica] Progress. Edited by R. Nelson. New York: Perg~mon Press, 1982. "Federal Financial Support for High~Technolagy Industries." Congressional Budget Office, June 1985. 9 0 n Soviet: Acquis Scion of t£ili~carily S igntficant yes tern Technology: An Update. ~ DOD Release, 1985. O. Stuart Cannes. "The Soviet Lag in High-Tech Defense, " Porcine, (November 25, 1985~. 11. JO A. Boyd. "What Education Can Contribute." In Commercializing Defense Related Technology. Edited by R. Kuhn. Praeger, 1984. . SDIO/ISTO Pamphlet, March 19BS. L. 13. National Academy of Sciences/Nat~ona1 Academy of Engineer~ng/Insti=~ce of Medicine, Commit~cee on Science, Engineering, asked Public Policy. The Outlook for Science and Tecl2nol ogy 1985 . Washington, 1)C: Na~cionai Academy Press, 1985. 14 . New Yoric Times, ( October 15, 19 8 5 ~ . - 260 -
