NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report is funded by a grant from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and a contract from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of NASA or NOAA or any of its sub-agencies.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
National Research Council
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ERIC J. BARRON (Co-Chair),
Pennsylvania State University, University Park
JAMES R. MAHONEY (Co-Chair)*,
Mahoney Environmental Consultants, McLean, Virginia
SUSAN K. AVERY,
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder
HOWARD B. BLUESTEIN†,
University of Oklahoma, Norman
LANCE F. BOSART*,
State University of New York, Albany
STEVEN F. CLIFFORD†,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado
GEORGE L. FREDERICK†,
Radian Electronic Systems, Austin, Texas
MARVIN A. GELLER,
State University of New York, Stony Brook
CHARLES E. KOLB,
Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts
JUDITH L. LEAN†,
Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, D.C.
ROGER A. PIELKE, JR.,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
MICHAEL J. PRATHER†,
University of California, Irvine
ROBERT T. RYAN,
WRC-TV, Washington, D.C.
MARK R. SCHOEBERL,
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
JOANNE SIMPSON,
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
NIEN DAK SZE*,
Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts
THOMAS F. TASCIONE†,
Sterling Software, Inc., Bellevue, Nebraska
ROBERT A. WELLER,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
ERIC F. WOOD,
Princeton University, New Jersey
Ex Officio Members
DONALD S. BURKE,
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
DARA ENTEKHABI,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
MICHAEL C. KELLEY,
Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
MARIO MOLINA,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
JOHN O. ROADS,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
EUGENE M. RASMUSSON,
University of Maryland, College Park
EDWARD S. SARACHIK,
University of Washington, Seattle
NRC Staff
ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, JR., Director
LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer
ALEXANDRA ISERN, Program Officer
PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Officer
DIANE L. GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant
ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Associate
TENECIA A. BROWN, Project Assistant
CARTER W. FORD, Project Assistant
† Beginning 1/2000 |
* Ending 12/1999 |
COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair),
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
RICHARD A. CONWAY,
Union Carbide Corporation (Retired), S. Charleston, West Virginia
LYNN GOLDMAN,
Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
THOMAS E. GRAEDEL,
Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
THOMAS J. GRAFF,
Environmental Defense, Oakland, California
EUGENIA KALNAY,
University of Maryland, College Park
DEBRA KNOPMAN,
Progressive Policy Institute, Washington, D.C.
BRAD MOONEY, J.
Brad Mooney Associates, Ltd., Arlington, Virginia
HUGH C. MORRIS,
El Dorado Gold Corporation, Vancouver, British Columbia
H. RONALD PULLIAM,
University of Georgia, Athens
MILTON RUSSELL,
Joint Institute for Energy and Environment and University of Tennessee (Emeritus), Knoxville
ROBERT J. SERAFIN,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
ANDREW R. SOLOW,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
E-AN ZEN,
University of Maryland, College Park
NRC Staff
ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Executive Director
GREGORY H. SYMMES, Associate Executive Director
JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative and Financial Officer
SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
Radford Byerly, Jr., Boulder, Colorado
Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Alexander H. Flax, Potomac, Maryland
Robert A. Frosch, Harvard University
Louis J. Lanzerotti, Bell Laboratories
Margaret A. LeMone, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Robert J. Serafin, National Center for Atmospheric Research
While the individuals listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
Preface
The term “Crossing the Valley of Death” is sometimes used in industry to describe a fundamental challenge for research and development (R&D) programs. For technology investments, the transitions from development to implementation are frequently difficult, and, if done improperly, these transitions often result in “skeletons in Death Valley.” Successful transitions from R&D to operational implementation always require: (1) an understanding of the importance (and risks) of the transition, (2) development and maintenance of appropriate transition plans, (3) adequate resource provision, and (4) continuous feedback (in both directions) between the R&D and operational activities. In the case of the atmospheric and climate sciences, inadequacies in transition planning and resource commitment can seriously inhibit the implementation of good research leading to useful societal benefits.
During the past generation, the atmospheric and climate sciences have experienced major improvements on various time and space scales in observational resources, scientific understanding, and forecasting capabilities applied to the characterization of the earth. Short-term synoptic forecasting, small regional scale forecasting, severe weather event warning, climate system analysis and modeling, and improved data and information processing and dissemination have all provided substantial societal benefits–especially in the 1990s. Even greater benefits (related to the pressing need to better understand and protect critical
earth systems) can be achieved in the first decade of the 2000s, but only if the linkages among research, observation, forecasting, and information processing are adequately managed.
The Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) recently completed a major review of the field of atmospheric sciences and published The Atmospheric Sciences Entering the Twenty-First Century (NRC, 1998a). As a follow-on to that effort, BASC identified almost 20 items from the report as potential subjects to examine more closely during the 1999 summer study. BASC selected the transition from research to operations as the first priority for more extensive study.
The federal agencies responsible for research, observing systems, information processing, and operational aspects of weather, climate, and related environmental activities asked BASC to address issues dealing with the transition of research results to the operational provision of services. As a result the following statement of task was developed for the study:
Statement of Task The BASC will convene a summer study in a workshop format to explore issues related to the transition from research and development to operations in the area of numerical weather prediction. Two case studies will form the nucleus of the effort:
The board will summarize these plans, analyze their strengths and weaknesses, including any major barriers to their successful implementation, and recommend improvements. |
Particular attention was directed to the ability of the major federal weather and climate prediction center, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), to implement the products of the research community and to the transition of research environmental satellite sensors to operational status. The NCEP readiness question was prompted by several internal government reviews of NCEP's responsibilities and capabilities and the apparent improvement in products and services that was being experienced in other prediction centers. The environmental satellite question was prompted by the 1998 NRC report Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade (NRC, 1998c). This report recommended that the continued monitoring of climate variables be a specific mission of the operational satellite programs of NOAA, in contrast to the research satellite programs of NASA.
BASC conducted a summer study to review these two issues (see Appendix A), and this report is the result of that study.
In general, BASC was pleased with the health of the research community, but did identify some definite shortcomings in the ability of NCEP to exploit the fruits of the research community. Equally important, limitations at NCEP prevent optimal support to the academic and research communities in the form of data and tailored forecast products necessary to stimulate research. BASC noted that progress was being made in several areas that should lead to improvements. Plans for other short and long-term improvements were also evaluated.
BASC reviewed the progress of planning for the National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Program (NPP) satellite mission which will assist in the transition of instruments from the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites to the operational NPOESS. Several BASC members had participated in earlier reviews of the NASA and NOAA plans and were generally pleased at the progress that was being made.
In its deliberations, BASC noted the improvements in the science of weather forecasting that have emerged in recent years and the increasing demand for additional products and services from many different sectors of the nation. BASC hopes that the recommendations in this report will enable the operational forecasting enterprise to meet these growing demands for service to the benefit of society.
Eric Barton and James Mahoney
Co-chairs, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate