Airports and the Newest Generation of General Aviation Aircraft, Volume 1: Forecast (2009) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 12-24
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From page 12... ...
The analysis that follows is best thought of as a market "potential" forecast and, because the air taxi market is just now emerging, it is inherently somewhat speculative. Because the focus is on potential market demand, it is implicitly assumed that manufacturers will be able to expand production as needed to meet the demand.
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From page 13... ...
For present purposes, it was much more efficient to use existing survey data rather than to design and undertake a survey from scratch. For the existing air taxi and commercial air modes, the best available data are those from mode-specific datasets: daily Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS)
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From page 14... ...
-- which is not in the ETMS data but that nonetheless might be captured by VLJ air taxi services -- the flight counts were then scaled up using data from the 2006 General Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey conducted by the FAA. Specifically, activity ratios of total air taxi flights to IFR air taxi flights by engine type (jet, prop, or piston)
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From page 15... ...
As noted earlier, this was done using Census population estimates to generate synthetic observations of air taxi travel at the Census tract level. The conversion of ETMS flights into passenger trips is discussed below in the Model Assumptions section.
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From page 16... ...
Model Assumptions The data from the three sources described above -- ETMS 2007 air taxi flights, DB1B 2007 commercial air trips, and ATS 1995 automobile trips -- were combined into a single large dataset to reflect the potential universe of trips from which a new VLJ mode would attract customers. To convert flights into passenger trips for current air taxi users, an average load factor of 70% was applied to the seat size of each representative aircraft selected.
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From page 17... ...
Table 12. List of explanatory variables used in air taxi analysis.
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From page 18... ...
Variable Automobile Commercial Air Air Taxi Piston Air Taxi Prop Air Taxi Light Jet 71.3-15.5-25.2-81.0-07.0-) ecirP(tsoC 05.0-01.1-84.0-71.0-23.0-emiTlevarT Income (relative to AT light jet)
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From page 19... ...
These estimates will be provided electronically as the appendix to the second volume of this report, ACRP Report 17: Airports and the Newest Generation of General Aviation Aircraft, Volume 2: Guidebook. When reviewing these estimates, it is important to recognize that they account only for air taxi activity.
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From page 20... ...
Spread and Distribution of VLJ Per-Seat versus Traditional Charter Services It is believed that a per-seat pricing approach still could be the foundation for a successful business model for VLJ air taxi services, although the prices may need to be somewhat higher than initially estimated or selection and utilization of aircraft type may need to be altered. To assess the potential impact of the per-seat approach to air taxi services, an analysis of actual fares offered for per-seat services in 2008 was undertaken.
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From page 21... ...
Estimated air taxi annual trips and market shares.*
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From page 22... ...
Operational Impacts on Airports Given the baseline projections, the trip estimates are all tied to specific locations and airports, so the total number of associated air taxi operations on an airport-specific basis can be aggregated. The projected operational increases for 2017 compared with the TAF 2007 total operation estimates are summarized in Table 19; the average operational increase by 2017 relative to the 2007 baseline is on the order of 6%.
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From page 23... ...
Hanscom Fld Bedford MA 169,471 4,775 455,3153,96AMylreveBinuMylreveBYVB 339,1732,401HNauhsaNdleiFerioBHSA OXC Waterbury-Oxford Oxford CT 60,829 1,708 155,91959,923OCrevneDlainnetneCAPA BJC Rocky Mountain Metropolitan Denver CO 167,968 6,188 DRO Durango-La Plata County Durango CO 57,123 4,845 655,4700,47OCnoitcnuJdnarGdleiFreklaWTJG HIO Portland-Hillsboro Portland OR 224,461 4,534 PDK Dekalb-Peachtree Atlanta GA 223,399 35,184 FTY Fulton County Airport-Brown Field Atlanta GA 122,196 29,093 LZU Gwinnett County - Briscoe Field Lawrenceville GA 85,686 26,682 712,710CNlliHlepahCsmailliWecaroHXGI RYY Cobb County-Mc Collum Field Atlanta GA 110,069 17,018 071,29338,131XTsallaDnosiddASDA 264,62136,841XToinotnAnaSinuMnosnitSFSS 813,32835,68XTnotsuoHlngRdnaLraguSRGS 753,81479,441XTnotsuoHdleiFnotgnillEDFE HYI San Marcos Muni San Marcos TX 120,420 12,984 556,29042,912VNsageVsaLsageVsaLhtroNTGV CRQ Mc Clellan-Palomar Carlsbad CA 215,859 28,667 MYF Montgomery Field San Diego CA 223,410 25,674 HND Henderson Executive Las Vegas NV 67,482 22,006 FAT Fresno Yosemite Intl Fresno CA 156,648 18,705 Northwestern Mountain Southern Southwestern Western Pacific Central Eastern Great Lakes New England Table 20. Added VLJ air taxi operations by 2017 -- top five airports by region.
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From page 24... ...
Hanscom Fld Bedford MA 169,471 7,010 484,4153,96AMylreveBinuMylreveBYVB 769,2732,401HNauhsaNdleiFerioBHSA MVY Marthas Vineyard Vineyard Haven MA 52,060 2,706 504,03959,923OCrevneDlainnetneCAPA PAE Snohomish County (Paine Fld) Everett WA 131,836 13,455 BJC Rocky Mountain Metropolitan Denver CO 167,968 10,957 HIO Portland-Hillsboro Portland OR 224,461 10,177 TTD Portland-Troutdale Portland OR 86,721 10,154 PDK Dekalb-Peachtree Atlanta GA 223,399 47,433 FTY Fulton County Airport-Brown Field Atlanta GA 122,196 34,773 LZU Gwinnett County - Briscoe Field Lawrenceville GA 85,686 34,213 RYY Cobb County-Mc Collum Field Atlanta GA 110,069 20,955 772,02437,151LFodnalrOevitucexELRO 889,111338,131XTsallaDnosiddASDA 656,73136,841XToinotnAnaSinuMnosnitSFSS 741,13835,68XTnotsuoHlngRdnaLraguSRGS 690,52479,441XTnotsuoHdleiFnotgnillEDFE HYI San Marcos Muni San Marcos TX 120,420 18,187 991,052042,912VNsageVsaLsageVsaLhtroNTGV MYF Montgomery Field San Diego CA 223,410 78,118 CRQ Mc Clellan-Palomar Carlsbad CA 215,859 60,820 440,65243,592ACnojaClE/ogeiDnaSdleiFeipselliGEES HND Henderson Executive Las Vegas NV 67,482 47,108 Northwestern Mountain Southern Southwestern Western Pacific Central Eastern Great Lakes New England Table 21.
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