Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States Technology, Policy, and Societal Dimensions (2024) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 361-406
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From page 361... ...
The committee's focus on heat pumps as the vehicle for electrification of current space and water heating's energy consumption is also supported by the evidence, given current technological options for immediate electrification and the financial feasibility of their installation. The gap between heat pumps' diffusion and the rates of this technology's adoption that would be necessary to meet the stated decarbonization goals is significant.
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From page 362... ...
. If all new homes were required to have heat pumps, the housing stock would meet the committee's heat pump diffusion rate targets by 2028, assuming the average construction rates of approximately 1.2 million new homes built each year continues (U.S.
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From page 363... ...
. Data for estimates of 2030 and 2040 heat pump adoption rates and housing units were committee generated.
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From page 364... ...
.5 Furthermore, assuming that all existing homes that transition to electric heat pumps were using carbon-based fuels for space heating beforehand, this would result in a 14.4 percent reduction in total demand for those fuels. In short, although the heat pump revolution is already happening, and adoption rates are increasingly meeting the committee's original targets or the new national projections, it is not happening fast enough to meet the broader goals of reductions in carbon-based energy demands or overall energy demand.
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From page 365... ...
All Owners All Renters SF Owners SF Renters All SF MF Owners MF Renters All MF Income group 14.4% 14.8% 13.5% 15.1% 14.7% 15% 9.5% 12.9% 12.5% Heat pump homes 100.0% 69.1% 30.9% 66.8% 10.6% 77.4% 2.3% 20.3% 22.6% NOTE: MF = multifamily; SF = single family. SOURCE: Tabulations of 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Surveys, courtesy of the U.S.
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From page 366... ...
. Heat pumps are also more than three times more likely to be found in single-family homes than multifamily apartment buildings.
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From page 367... ...
For example, recent data suggest a growth in overall energy insecurity. Considering just energy cost hardship, high energy burden (defined by Drehobl et al.
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From page 368... ...
Finding 7-3: The committee's original recommendations for increased investments in WAP are meant to prioritize decarbonization efforts for households experiencing a range of energy hardships. However, defining the population and articulating outcomes (in both removal of carbon-based energy sources as well as improving energy efficiency to reduce overall energy burden)
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From page 369... ...
Summary of Gap Analysis In sum, the committee's targets for specific technological interventions (e.g., heat pump adoption) and program budgets (for WAP)
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From page 370... ...
Each provides some achievement against the committee's original 2030 energy reduc tion goals, although none as much as the federal investments in the past 2 years.12 National Policy Changes In particular, the IIJA authorized $3.5 billion to WAP until expended (§40551) -- which the White House estimates will aid 700,000 income-eligible households over the next decade based on past WAP mean expenditures per unit.13 However, a likely scenario given past expenditure rates is more than 322,000 homes weatherized, resulting in an additional 8 tBTUs reduced in total energy consumption (6.5 tBTUs in natural gas consumption)
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From page 371... ...
With these new tax credits and direct rebates from the IRA, the committee estimates increased heat pump adoption rates starting in 2023, which would accomplish the committee heat pump adoption goals by 2029, 10 years before the currently projected industrial diffusion. By the IRA benefits' closeout in 2033, furthermore, the residential heat pump adoption will have surpassed the committee's goals by an additional 2.3 percent and 27.3 percent of the entire housing stock (or 38 million homes)
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From page 372... ...
IIJA funding for WAP will provide an opportunity to target eligible households and energy-reducing improvements, including electrification, more effectively. IRA tax credits and rebates are also significant: IRA incentives for heat pump installations will meet the committee's targets by 2029 (a decade ahead of business-as-usual adoption rates)
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From page 373... ...
. This may not be additive -- that is, many of the households and homebuilders that take the tax credits or rebates may have been purchasing heat pumps anyway.
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From page 374... ...
. A few states have also incented or mandated distributed renewable energy production.19 For example, California's goal of achieving zero net energy for new residential buildings by 2020 and by 2030 for commercial buildings has resulted in codes with prescriptive requirements for heat pumps (CPUC n.d.)
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From page 375... ...
For example, California recently prohibited natural gas heating equipment beginning in 2030. California has also set goals for the installation of heat pumps and set aside funds for this effort.
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From page 376... ...
to act, particularly when the policy supports are voluntary. Implementation will involve private industry actors and individual building owners and households -- the same stake holder groups that built and maintain the current built environment.
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From page 377... ...
For example, state energy offices should coordinate with community services, housing, and community development agencies to better target weatherization assis tance funds as well as state rebate programs. Furthermore, local building inspection and housing departments should be utilized to better support building improvements in new and existing residential and commercial buildings.
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From page 378... ...
should dedicate a portion of their available funds to monitoring the effectiveness of this technical assistance as well as tracking its outcomes in energy savings or electrification rates. BROADER DECARBONIZATION STRATEGIES FOR THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT The opportunities for decarbonization in the built environment rest on more than just addressing buildings' energy consumption.
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From page 379... ...
Like increasing building requirements, federal incentives for subnational governments to implement community-level decarbonization strategies should involve appropriate implementation transition periods. Because the process of adopting and implement ing community and land use changes in the built environment takes longer than retrofitting of individual buildings, it would be helpful to use modest incentives across a wider range of federal programs for subnational governments (including transpor tation, water, broadband, housing, and energy block-grant resources)
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From page 380... ...
. A more aggressive target for increased energy efficiency in buildings and the built environment would reduce demand for heating, cooling, and transport electricity.
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From page 381... ...
. Of these savings, 70 percent come from a dozen products that could be accelerated to achieve Energy Star performance in the top 25 percent of their market, including residential water heaters, heat pumps/central air conditioners, boilers and furnaces, refrigerators, as well as commercial/industrial fans, electric motors, transformers, air compressors, and packaged unitary air conditioners and heat pumps.
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From page 382... ...
to become the mandatory minimum within 5–10 years, with continuously updated minimums to reflect advances in appliance efficiency. The most rapid acceleration for appliance and equipment upgrades may occur in response to mandates for building electrification, especially in the installation of heat pumps for heating and hot water.
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From page 383... ...
5.7 quads of reduced annual energy demand, 265 MMtCO2 of reduced annual emissions. The design, engineering, and construction professions have been delivering net-zero new buildings wherever clients or codes mandate, by combining very low energy use per square foot requirements with on-site or purchased renewable energy sources.
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From page 384... ...
The largest energy demands in residential and commercial buildings are for heating, cooling, ventilation, and lighting -- each of which can be measurably reduced through thermal and air tightness improvements in building roofs, walls, windows, and foundations, which directly impact the sizing and performance of mechanical and electrical equipment. Retrofitting the nation's existing buildings to improve their energy efficiency would require significant expansion of relevant manufacturing and training, and would need to address the barriers and disruptions that accompany most retrofits, as well as the up-front capital cost, even when reduced operating 384 A00026 -- Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States_CH07.indd 384 3/29/24 4:53 PM
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From page 385... ...
. The IIJA and IRA provide a significant start by a commitment to retrofitting 1.3–2.5 million buildings inhabited by low-income households with heat pumps.
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From page 386... ...
and $0.2 billion for states to establish training and education programs for contractors who install home energy efficiency and electrification improvements (§50123) is a critical start and could be expanded to address existing commercial buildings as well.
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From page 387... ...
3.2 quads of reduced annual energy demand, 125 MMtCO2 of reduced annual emissions. In addition to increased use of proven technologies, an effort to significantly tighten and accelerate national targets for building decarbonization (i.e., Figure 1-3)
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From page 388... ...
Local and state codes will need to be modified to support HFC-free equipment. Increased federal funding to develop and deploy the next generation of refrigerants would help the United States to remain a leader in the manufacturing of heat pumps, refrigerators, and air conditioners, while helping the United States meet or exceed its target for reducing refrigerant emissions.
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From page 389... ...
. However, if electrification in buildings is combined with high energy efficiency, on-site energy storage, and smart technologies with grid integration, the energy and GHG emissions reductions can be substantial.
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From page 390... ...
. Community Policies and Actions for Rapid Decarbonization in the United States In addition to modifications to buildings for decarbonization, federal, state, and local policies could promote land use policies that substantially increase the energy efficiency of buildings and infrastructure as described in the next four sections on mixed-use, transit-oriented development; community renewables with micro-grids; smart surfaces; and innovation, research, and rapid development of district energy through GEBs with thermal energy distribution and storage systems.
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From page 391... ...
to promote tree planting in communities, both with priority given to underserved populations. However, these programs aim to fill particular needs, and would not be sufficient if the nation were to decide to transform the built environment to reduce emissions and achieve objectives related 391 A00026 -- Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States_CH07.indd 391 3/29/24 4:54 PM
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From page 392... ...
. Moreover, bundling electrification with energy efficiency retrofits reduces the needed size and operational energy demands of the new electrical equipment such as heat pumps.
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From page 393... ...
has analyzed how trade-offs and synergies among building efficiency, electrification, and the various options for electric power generation affect energy demand and greenhouse emissions. LBNL concluded that the most aggressive strategies would bundle building efficiency, electrification, and grid decarbonization to offer approximately 90 percent reductions in carbon emis sions from the built environment by 2050 (Figure 7-6; Langevin et al.
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From page 394... ...
. Expansion of the electric grid and providing sufficient charging points for vehicles will force substantial changes in the built environment that will be challenging everywhere, but particularly in areas with high population density.
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From page 395... ...
4.0 quads of reduced annual energy demand, 150 MMtCO2 of reduced annual emissions. There are abundant alternatives to the use of electricity for space heating, hot water, and even cooling loads that combined are responsible for 37 percent to 46 percent of the to tal energy consumed in the United States (EIA 2022a)
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From page 396... ...
District heating and cooling systems that combine ground source heat pumps with PV and building energy storage systems have resulted in major residential carbon savings in Europe and the United Kingdom, under climatic conditions present in many regions of the United States (Litjens et al.
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From page 397... ...
In addition to ensuring that new transmission infrastructures improve communi ties, there are two key opportunities that depend on integration of the grid and the built environment beyond a simple utility service: advancing buildings (and their cars) as batteries and peak load managers for grid resilience; and incorporat ing distributed renewables and district energy with GEBs into an interconnected grid of grids.
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From page 398... ...
(See NASEM 2021b.) To realize the potential of buildings as batteries and peak load managers for grid resilience, the United States would need to increase long-term RD&D investments in a number of technologies, including • Heat pumps for integrated heating, cooling, and hot water (buildings)
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From page 399... ...
The IRA dedicates $65 billion to funds for grid reliability and resiliency actions and supports a Grid Deployment Office for critical minerals and supply chains for clean energy technology; key technologies including carbon capture, hydrogen, direct air capture, and energy efficiency; and energy demonstration projects outlined in the bipartisan Energy Act of 2020. These federal funding opportunities do not include a focused RD&D program to develop grids that fully engage distributed renewables, storage, and GEBs as an integral player in the grid.
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From page 400... ...
, and multiple states have launched low- and moderate-income solar programs to facilitate community solar by helping to overcome barriers such as lack of access to capital, insufficient tax burden to take advantage of tax credits, the large fraction of renters who are often ineligible for incentives, frustrating interconnection policies, and lack of familiarity with solar products (Mai et al.
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A00026 -- Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States_CH07.indd 401 FIGURE 7-8 Accelerating U.S. investments in building and community PV is key to competitiveness.
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From page 402... ...
Summary of 10 Actions Consistent long-term federal and subnational leadership and incentives, combined with subnational mandates, could significantly accelerate the pace of emissions reductions associated with the built environment. For this to succeed, there would need to be clarity and coordination across federal, state, and local building pro grams, with a commitment to ensure equity across all programs and policies.
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From page 403... ...
Recommendation 7-6: Increase Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment for Built Environment Decarbonization Interventions. Congress should provide funding in support of a Department of Energy (DOE)
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. Indeed, as this chapter describes, there is a much greater potential for emissions reductions from the built environment with even more ambitious strategies for reducing energy demand and more tightly weaving building technologies into the broader energy system.
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From page 405... ...
Consideration of the interactions across intervention types and their resulting contributions to both comprehensive decarbonization of the sector and the inequitable access and impacts across populations -- particularly for low-in come, energy-burdened, energy-insecure households; households in severely inadequate housing; and other disadvantaged groups. For the next decade, investments in market transformation across all building and community intervention points are needed to meet the goal of reducing the built environment's contribution to carbon-based energy demand and its result ing GHG emissions by 2050.
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From page 406... ...
Larger incentives must be allotted to building audit services and to owner and occupant service management to ensure the technologically appropriate selection and installation order of decarbonization technologies that are suited to the housing unit and house hold or owner capacity. For example, the creation of additional targets for 2040–2043 could ensure a higher adoption rate of heat pumps beyond the 25 percent and 15 percent targets laid out in the committee's first report for residential and commercial buildings by 2030.
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