Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States Technology, Policy, and Societal Dimensions (2024) / Chapter Skim
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From page 483... ...
Companies are under pressure to end sourcing of materials produced under such con ditions, which is a major motivator to produce batteries with limited cobalt content, for example. China is a dominant producer and processor of both critical minerals and materials, as well as finished battery components, cells, and packs, and is the largest market for electric vehicles.
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The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHSTA) and EPA have released new vehicle fuel economy and GHG emissions standards, respectively, under their existing leg islative authorities.
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(2023) estimate that if the 17 states that have previously ad opted California's emissions policies adopt California's 2035 LDV and 2050 truck ZEV sales share mandates, LD PEV sales share would reach 63 percent and MHD PEV sales share would reach 56 percent by 2035, even with the phaseout of IRA incentives in 2032.
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. Government agencies and nonprofit organizations that own fleets are also beginning to require purchases of electric vehicles, in part for operat ing cost and emissions reductions, including vehicle fleets from the postal service and the Department of Defense (DoD)
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. Federal fuel economy and GHG emissions standards, although less direct, can also serve to push manufacturers to produce and market PEVs.
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and to 55% EV sales by 2030 Mitsubishi Plans for 100% of EV sales by 2035 and 50% Global Group EV sales by 2030 in their Environmental Targets 2030 Porsche 80% of sales to be electric by 2030 Europe Brand BMW Group Cumulative sales of more than 2 million EVs Global Group by the end of 2025; EV sales shares of 30% by 2025, 50% by 2030 MINI and Rolls-Royce Aims to have fully electric line-up by 2030 Global Brand Lancia All new model launches from 2026 to be Global Brand electric; to sell 100% EVs by 2028 Jaguar Aims to go all-electric by 2025 Global Brand Land Rover Aims to go all-electric by 2036 Global Brand 488 A00026 -- Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States_CH09.indd 488 4/15/24 10:35 PM
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From page 489... ...
While catenary and third rail can be used effectively in some situations, they are unlikely to prove practical for all rail lines. One area where electrification may be adopted more quickly is in rail yards, analogous to port operations, where electrification, including electric locomotives, can provide emissions reductions in and near urban areas as well as benefit from easier access to infrastructure and no requirement for long-distance travel.
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. Aircraft Aviation represents 10 percent, and growing, of transportation GHG emissions (EPA 2021; see Figure 9-1)
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. Findings and Recommendations Finding 9-1: The IIJA and IRA authorized and appropriated funding and tax credits to electrify road vehicles offer the largest, most cost-effective opportunity to decarbonize the transportation sector and will make substantial progress toward achieving the 2030 ZEV sales share goals of the committee's first report and the nation's long-term strategy for decarbonization.
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Achieving the higher growth rates required to reach or exceed the 2030 50 percent sales share goals of ZEVs, rather than simply reaching the 2050 100 percent sales goal, would substantially reduce the number of vehicles dependent on net-zero-emission liquid fuels after 2030 as well as after 2050. Recommendation 9-1: Accelerate the Adoption of Battery Electric Vehicles.
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From page 493... ...
State and local funding for conversion of public vehicle fleets, including transit and school buses, to electric drive; and h. Expanded public engagement programs to help consumers better understand and navigate the changes entailed in adopting and adapting their practices and household infrastructures to the capabilities and requirements of electric vehicles.
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Numerous technical means to improve fuel economy exist, so efficiency improvements are likely to continue in the next few decades. For example, vehicle lightweighting can dramatically improve energy efficiency for either ICEs or EVs (Lovins 2020)
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As travel demand grows, the GHG emissions reduction potential of improved traf fic flow management will erode. In essence, greater traffic volumes without infra structure capacity expansions will reduce the efficiency of traffic flow owing to congestion (NASEM 2019d)
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While routing on rail or inland waterways may be longer in both distance and time, and short-sea shipping along coastal routes has so far failed to gain substantial mar ket share in the United States, these modes have lower fuel use and GHG emissions per ton-mile of freight movement (Corbett et al.
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Information and Communications Technology Substitutes for Transport In many cases, information and communications technologies (ICT) can substitute for travel and thus reduce GHG emissions.
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.14 The impact of biking, walking, and transit on transportation GHG emissions, especially in the near term, is limited by the nature of transportation needs in the United States today, which are themselves heavily influenced by land use patterns. Trips tend to be relatively long, and thus accomplished by personal vehicles, which therefore results in the majority of emissions.
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. Transport Infrastructure Construction and Maintenance Relative to direct vehicle emissions, the GHG emissions from infrastructure construc tion and maintenance are relatively modest but still important.
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GHG emissions from ICE vehicles, vessels, and aviation operations not easily electrified can be reduced cost effectively through enhanced fuel economy, traffic flow management, freight operational efficiencies and mode shift, enhanced mode choices, and land use and zon ing policies. Enhancing efficiency also has direct economic and non-GHG en vironmental benefits even though the marginal GHG reductions from these efforts may be modest.
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Finding 9-6: Transportation infrastructure construction and maintenance repre sents a small share of transportation GHG emissions relative to combustion from operation of ICE vehicles, but they can be further reduced in cost-effective ways by reducing the full life-cycle carbon content of input materials, enhanced use of recycled materials, electrification of construction equipment and vehicles, and low-carbon materials procurement standards. Recommendation 9-4: Pursue Infrastructure Designs, Standards, Specifications, and Procedures That Effectively Reduce Transportation Carbon Emissions.
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Although they will benefit from lower emissions exposures, without additional policies and pro grams, the initial growth in EVs will have limited benefits for the lower-income drivers or owners of vehicles who will find it hard to purchase a new EV, nor will EV growth result in expanded mobility options for those who cannot afford to own vehicles. As discussed in the section "2030 ZEV Sales Goals and Barriers," the IRA includes specific efforts to make PEVs and charging accessible to low-income households, but broad penetration of PEV ownership in this income group will require additional efforts.
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More over, several compact sedans priced well below these ceilings are being introduced by OEMs. The tax credits available in the IRA for home and commercial installation of charging infrastructure target rural and low-income census tracts, which will facilitate access to public charging by low-income households and renters less able to charge at home.
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, whereas employment growth in manufacturing for PEVs and in charging infrastructure would fall 2 million jobs short of replacing these losses. PEVs, having more integrated designs with fewer parts, can be produced with fewer workers per unit of output than ICEVs, and new factories are expected to be more reliant on automation than existing ones.
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Certain transportation-related technologies implemented for decarbonization will introduce new or heightened interest and concern from the public and require special consideration for public engagement. Carbon capture and sequestration, net-zero GHG emissions synthetic fuels, and other carbon management strategies may require investment in new or modified pipelines to transport carbon dioxide or ammonia (Larson et al.
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From page 506... ...
, but there is more opportunity to man age charging demand on the grid from PEVs. Transportation Fuel Impact on Agriculture, Forestry, and Nature-Based Solutions Even if the committee's ZEV sales goals are reached, there will still be substantial de mand for low-carbon fuels for industrial heat, aviation, marine shipping, and perhaps heavy road transport.
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However, aviation will almost certainly re quire liquid fuel combustion for the foreseeable future. Recommended actions to address future liquid fuel demand are made in the section "Actions to Expand the Innovation Toolkit." Finding 9-8: Reducing ICEV emissions and noise through electrification offers greater health benefits to low-income communities of color than other groups because such communities tend to be located near major highways, freight depots, and ports.
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New programs to assist low-income households in purchasing, owning, leasing, and insuring new and used plug-in electric vehicles; b. Assurance that public charging locations are equitably allocated, accessible, and affordable by low-income residents unable to rely on home charging; c.
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From page 509... ...
Recycling processes for batteries and BEVs will be needed, building on the extensive recycling infrastructure for conventional vehicles. End-of-life recycling of electric vehicles and batteries is in its infancy (Chok shi and Browning 2022)
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Standardization of connector plugs has significant benefits for BEV users. Provisions in the IIJA will encourage this standardization because any recharging infrastructure funded through this program will have to be interoperable across proprietary designs.
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Synthetic low carbon liquid fuels could also be commercially available by 2050. For the hard to-electrify transportation applications, especially aviation, true net-zero-carbon liquid fuels, with energy density comparable to current fossil fuels, provide the most likely option for decarbonization despite their harmful emissions of conven tional pollutants.
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. Net-zero carbon synthetic and biofuels will likely be first introduced as blends with existing fossil fuels (Farrell et al.
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Finding 9-10: Despite successful electrification of LDVs and most MHD trucks, net-zero-carbon liquid fuels will still be required to decarbonize high-power, high energy-consumption applications such as aviation and perhaps also heavy long distance land transport and marine vessels, which could amount to 25 percent of current demand for fossil fuels in transport. There are no current commercially available truly net-zero-carbon liquid fuels, but technologies in development include carbon capture paired with either biofuels or synthetic low-carbon fuels from CO2.
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Policy Portfolio Battery Electric • Non-federal reductions Tightened Targets Vehicles actors • Equity for the Buildings • Health and Industrial • Public Sectors and a engagement Backstop for the Transport Sector 9-2: Promote Ports and airports • Transportation • GHG Tightened Targets Vehicle and their state and • Non-federal reductions for the Buildings Electrification at local government actors • Health and Industrial Ports and Airports owners Sectors and a Backstop for the Transport Sector 9-3: Pursue Cost- Private companies • Buildings • GHG A Broadened Effective Efficiency and state and local • Transportation reductions Policy Portfolio Improvements governments • Fossil fuels • Equity Tightened Targets to Reduce • Non-federal • Health for the Buildings Greenhouse Gas actors and Industrial Emissions Sectors and a Backstop for the Transport Sector 9-4: Pursue State Departments • Transportation • GHG Tightened Targets Infrastructure of Transportation, • Industry reductions for the Buildings Design, Standards, American • Non-federal and Industrial Specifications, and Association of actors Sectors and a Procedures That State Highway and Backstop for the Effectively Reduce Transportation Transport Sector Transportation Officials, American Carbon Emissions Road and 514 A00026 -- Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States_CH09.indd 514 4/15/24 10:35 PM
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Objective(s) Categories Short-Form Implementing Addressed by Addressed by Addressed by Recommendation Recommendation Recommendation Recommendation Recommendation Transportation Builders Association, and other specialized transportation infrastructure materials and construction associations 9-5: Enhance States and local • Buildings • GHG Rigorous and Transportation governments • Transportation reductions Transparent Equity and • Finance • Equity Analysis and Environmental • Non-federal • Health Reporting Justice Through actors • Public for Adaptive Programs, engagement Management Planning, and Ensuring Services Procedural Equity in Planning and Siting New Infrastructure and Programs Ensuring Equity, Justice, Health, and Fairness of Impacts Tightened Targets for the Buildings and Industrial Sectors and a Backstop for the Transport Sector continued 515 A00026 -- Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States_CH09.indd 515 4/15/24 10:35 PM
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From page 516... ...
. "All Laws and Incentives Sorted by Type." DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
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2009. "Environmental Assessment of Passenger Transportation Should Include Infrastructure and Supply Chains." Environmental Research Letters 4(2)
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2021. "Health Benefits of Decreases in On-Road Transportation Emissions in the United States from 2008 to 2017." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118(51)
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2019. "Implications of Behavioral Economics for the Costs and Benefits of Fuel Economy Standards." Current Sustainable/Renewable Energy Reports 6(4)
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2022b. The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions.
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2016. "Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Energy Efficiency, and Cost of Synthetic Fuel Production Using Electrochemical CO2 Conversion and the Fischer–Tropsch Process." Energy and Fuels 30(7)
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2023. "Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards for Passenger Cars and Light Trucks for Model Years 2027–2032 and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Heavy-Duty Pickup Trucks and Vans for Model Years 2030–2035." Federal Register 88(158)
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From page 523... ...
2022. "Charging Infrastructure Access and Operation to Reduce the Grid Impacts of Deep Electric Vehicle Adoption." Nature Energy 7(10)
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From page 524... ...
2009. Driving and the Built Environment: The Effects of Compact Development on Motorized Travel, Energy Use, and CO2 Emissions.
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Analyses of the impact of these bills suggest that industrial GHG emissions will de crease 6–14 percent by 2030. However, the scenarios in the Biden administration's strategy and the funding priorities in the IRA and IIJA court risk by placing the major ity of industrial CO2 reductions on the latter decarbonization pillars.
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The chapter then describes five major pillars of industrial decarbonization, which are relevant across heavy and light industry and small, medium, and large manufacturers: (1) energy and materials efficiency, (2)
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supports demonstrations at scale of transformative low-carbon technolo gies directly involved in producing products in heavy industry. Figure 10-1 also indicates the absence of support for the two fast-start decarbonization pillars -- electrification and $5 Industrial/Manufacturing Programs Future of Industry Program and Industrial Research and Assessment Centers Advanced Industrial Facilities Deployment Program Funding in IIJA and IRA (billions)
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From page 528... ...
While the IIJA has support for increasing generation of clean electricity and infrastruc ture, it contains little direct support for industrial electrification. The relatively low levels of funding for energy efficiency and electrification in industry are major gaps considering that these decarbonization pillars are most amenable to early action and impact owing to their relatively low costs, capital requirements, and infrastructure needs (DOE 2022a)
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From page 529... ...
. within DOE's Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap estimates that an emissions reduction of 29 percent versus a 2015 baseline could be achieved by 2030 if all pil lars are rigorously pursued.2 That the Rhodium Group's estimates of industrial CO2 emissions reductions from the IRA and IIJA are less than half of the potential reduc tions noted by the DOE Roadmap suggests that the reductions supported by these bills spur only a portion of the possible reductions during this time period.
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This risk could be diminished by prompt investments in faster acting pillars that could deliver substantial CO2 reductions in the next 5–10 years. Accelerating the pace of reductions will require more aggressive support for the fast start pillars of energy efficiency, materials efficiency, and electrification of process heat and key processes that are the backbone of heavy industries; pursuit of crosscutting approaches and a focus on achieving cost parity for low-carbon technologies; and decreased hurdles for implementation.
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, (2) demonstrate low-carbon technologies (e.g., industrial heat pumps, Rightor et al.
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