The 2000 Census Interim Assessment (2001) / Chapter Skim
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2. Evaluation Issues
2. Evaluation Issues
Pages 35-44
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From page 35... ...
Evaluating a decennial census is a similarly daunting mission, requiring careful scrutiny of every procedure and careful assessment of the effect of each procedure on the quality of the resulting data. The ultimate benchmark against which the results of a census could be compared namely, an unambiguously true count of the population is as unknown and elusive to census evaluators as it is to census collectors.
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From page 36... ...
iA third type of data product not considered in this categorization are public-use microdata sample (PUMS) files, which are sampled individual records from census files (using appropriate safeguards to protect confidentiality and privacy)
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From page 37... ...
Likewise, business plans and decisions depend on census count and characteristics data: applications include locating retail outlets, comparing the market potential of different cities, and assessing the availability of needed occupational skills in different labor market areas. Both census data types are essential to many academic and private-sector researchers whose work depends on charting population differences and their changes over time.
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From page 38... ...
Moreover, even when gross omissions and erroneous enumerations balance, examination of them could help identify sources of error that would be useful to address by changing enumeration procedures or other aspects of the census. Any evaluation of a decennial census must necessarily attempt to get some reading of the level of various types of error in the census, even though those errors cannot be computed directly.
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From page 39... ...
Another source of census response error is confusion over the questionnaire itself; language difficulties may deter some respondents, while others may not understand who should and should not be included, such as students on temporary visas or away at college. Consequences of Error The potential effect of different levels of census error is difficult to quantify succinctly, primarily because the effects of error depend greatly on the use to which census data are put and on the fineness with which the data are aggregated geographically.5 To date, the focus of research on the consequences of census error has been on their effect on three major uses of census data: reapportionment of the U.S.
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From page 40... ...
The change in political clout that can result from a shift of even one seat defies estimation; moreover, the mere fact that different levels of census error and adjustment strategies can alter apportionment opens the door to the unfounded but damaging assertion that the census can be manipulated to produce a desired political effect. The potential effect of census error on legislative redistricting is particularly hard to assess, given the intensely political nature of the process.
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From page 41... ...
Program; demographic analysis; the Census 2000 Supplementary Survey (the pilot American Community Survey) ; other household surveys, such as the Current Population Survey; and administrative records such as those collected by the Internal Revenue Service.
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From page 42... ...
: (1) development of the Master Address File, including: updates from the Postal Service Delivery Sequence File, block canvassing, and the Local Update of Census Addresses Program; special efforts to list group quarters and special places; and operations to filter duplicate addresses; (2)
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From page 43... ...
It is also important to assess the error in estimates on the basis of the characteristics information collected on the census long form and how that error varies with level of geographic aggregation. One technique for this latter analysis is external validation from administrative records and other sources; another is a detailed component error analysis, attempting to sort out errors due to such sources as proxy response, imputation for item nonresponse, and sampling error.
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From page 44... ...
Should any such patterns emerge, they should be checked against the results of previous censuses as a confirmatory measure. SUMMARY Evaluation of a decennial census is not an easy task, and it does not lend itself to snap summary judgments.
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