The 2000 Census Interim Assessment (2001) / Chapter Skim
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5. Demographic Analysis
5. Demographic Analysis
Pages 77-86
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From page 77... ...
usually begins with the DA estimate for the previous census year (1990) , updated with estimates of births, deaths, and net immigration in the decade between the two years.
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From page 78... ...
The census count is that reported for April 2000, including household and group quarters residents in the United States. The DA base estimate is that developed by demographic analysis as described above, which, at the time of the census, was the Census Bureau's initial and best estimate of the "true" population to be used as a measure for evaluating overall census coverage.
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From page 79... ...
However, the 2000 DA net undercount estimates are much lower than the 1990 DA estimates, even when the 2000 DA population estimates are adjusted to allow for a greater number of undocumented immigrants than originally estimated; see Table 5-2. UNCERTAINTY IN IMMIGRATION ESTIMATES The main area of uncertainty in the DA estimate of the total population lies with the immigration component, especially the number of undocumented immigrants.
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From page 80... ...
a Base is the originally produced DA estimate which includes an allowance for 6 million undocumented immigrants; alternate is a DA estimate that arbitrarily doubles the flow of undocumented immigrants between 1990 and 2000, allowing for 8.7 million undocumented immigrants total. SOURCE: Robinson (2001a:Tables A, 5)
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From page 81... ...
Bureau researchers are currently looking at detailed information from the 2000 census long form and the Census 2000 Supplementary Survey on country of birth, year of immigration, and other charactenstics to try to resolve competing estimates of legal and illegal immigrants. This discussion is not intended to answer the question of the quality of the DA estimate, but rather to point out the problem of fine-tuning and interpreting the DA estimate in light of the uncertainty associated with estimates of the immigration (legal and illegal)
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From page 82... ...
b Alternate is a DA estimate that arbitrarily doubles the flow of undocumented immigrants between 1990 and 2000, allowing for 8.7 million undocumented immigrants total. c Model 1 compares the 2000 DA estimates for blacks with 2000 census tabulations for people who only reported black race.
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From page 83... ...
Using the DA base estimate, the black net undercount ranges from 4.7 percent based on those reporting black only in the census to 0.9 percent when black in combination with other races is included in the count of blacks a fairly wide range with the truth somewhere in between. Note that using the Bureau's alternate DA estimate (i.e., an estimate with 8.7 million instead of 6.0 million undocumented immigrants)
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From page 84... ...
Correspondingly, the nonblack population is currently estimated at about 20 percent minority, and this percentage will probably increase with the passage of time. The black population is a growing fraction of the national population, and DA estimates of net undercount in the black population remain a vitally important product.
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From page 85... ...
Yet another component that can shed some light on the comparison of DA with the census are the estimates for people under age 15. The DA estimates at these ages are less affected by the uncertainties associated with the immigration component, especially undocumented immigrants.
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From page 86... ...
Finally, we urge the Census Bureau to lead a research effort by appropriate federal agencies and outside experts to develop improved methods and sources of data for estimating legal and illegal immigrants in surveys and administrative records as input to demographic analysis and for other uses.
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