The 2000 Census Interim Assessment (2001) / Chapter Skim
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Part I: Letter Report
Part I: Letter Report
Pages 1-14
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Part I Letter Report
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This interim report makes no judgment on the appropriateness of adjusting or not adjusting the census for net population undercount. The panel in its November 2000 letter report concluded that the Census Bureau's plans for evaluations that could be completed within the time available appeared to be sufficient for making a reasonably confident decision about adjustment in March 2001.
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However, the panel urges the Bureau to complete the research necessary to develop reliable revised estimates of the net coverage errors in the census, particularly for population groups, in order to determine whether their use would improve the Bureau's population estimates that are regularly produced during the postcensal period. iThe Bureau's evaluations are available at http: //~w .
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The panel staff met with Census Bureau staff to ask clarifying questions about the key analyses of unmeasured erroneous census enumerations. 3 The Executive Steering Committee for A.C.E.
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results could not reliably be used for census adjustment. It would be desirable for the Bureau to revise the dual-systems estimates for the total population and individual post-strata as quickly as possible to determine if use of the revised estimates would improve the census counts that form the basis of regularly updated postcensal estimates of the population.5 To date, the Bureau's estimates of erroneous census enumerations not measured in the A.C.E and the effects on the estimated net undercount are based only on preliminary analyses of small subsets of the A.C.E.
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Why did they occur in the census in the first place? Measurement of Erroneous Enumerations Two principal evaluations of the E-sample identified problems with the classification of erroneous census enumerations in the A.C.E.
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failed to measure 1.9 million erroneous census enumerations (Krejsa and Raglin, 2001~. The EFU could not resolve the status of an estimated 4.6 million census enumerations an unresolved rate of 1.7 percent (lower than the 2.6 percent unresolved enumeration status in the original A.C.E.~.
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, an allowance was added for duplicates not detected by the computer matching. The result was an estimate of 2.9 million erroneous census enumerations that were not measured in the A.C.E.
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. A special unduplication operation in summer 2000 to identify duplicate MAP addresses and associated household members resulted in 6 million person records identified initially as possible duplicates, of which 3.6 million were dropped from the census and 2.4 million were reinstated after further analysis.
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This study compared the race and ethnicity composition of imputed persons and data-defined persons, but it did not look at the proportions of population groups that were imputed, which is the relevant analysis for the effects on net undercount rates. If it has not already done so, the Census Bureau should study imputations for other groups as well, such as owners and renters, and make the results publicly available.
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As we urged in our interim report (see Part II:Ch.5) , the Census Bureau should increase its resources for demographic analysis, particularly for methods for improving estimates of net immigration.
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2001) Total Population -0.65 0.32 0.12 1.85 1.65 Black 2.80 3.51 2.78 5.68 5.52 All Other -1.19 -0.17 -0.29 1.29 1.08 NOTES: Net undercount rates are calculated as the estimate from demographic analysis minus the census count divided by the estimate.
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FUTURE WORK OF THE PANEL In its work to prepare a final report, the panel plans to address the quality of the important socioeconomic information collected in the census long form and to review the detailed information obtained on race and ethnicity. The panel will also review further Census Bureau evaluations of population coverage in the 2000 census and consider methods for improving coverage evaluation for future censuses.
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These evaluations underscore the critical importance for the census of having a coverage measurement program, such as the A.C.E., with a large independent survey that can provide detailed information on coverage errors for population groups and geographic areas. Sincerely yours, Janet L
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