Future R&D Environments A Report for the National Institute of Standards and Technology (2002) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix E: Recent Reports on Future Trends in Science and Technology
Appendix E: Recent Reports on Future Trends in Science and Technology
Pages 100-128
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From page 100... ...
The organizations are Battelle, the Council on Competitiveness, the Industrial Research Institute (IRI) , the National Intelligence Council (NIC)
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From page 101... ...
Those include the reports by NIC and the Hart-Rudman Commission and a report by RAND done as input to the NIC report. There is a long history of policy planning, including technology policy, in the national security arena, probably because the federal government has overall responsibility in that area, including maintenance of the U.S.
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From page 102... ...
Where Economic Performance Fell Short The authors go on to argue that the economic boom of the 1990s masked persistent areas of weakness in the U.S. economy that could undermine longerterm prosperity: · Forty percent of U.S.
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From page 103... ...
Recommendations To increase the nation's standard of living in the long run, policy makers will have to invest in innovation, increase workforce skills, and strengthen regional clusters of innovation. The authors recommend that the United States undertake the following: Lead in Science and Technology Increase federal investment in frontier research.
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From page 104... ...
It is acknowledged that no single driver or trend will dominate, each driver will affect different regions and countries differently, and in some cases, the drivers may work at cross-purposes rather than be mutually reinforcing. 2National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future with Nongovernment Experts, U.S.
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From page 105... ...
One result implies a need for substantially increased per-worker productivity: "In advanced economies and a growing number of emerging market countries declining birthrates and aging will combine to increase health care and pension costs while reducing the relative size of the working population, straining the social contract, and leaving significant shortfalls in the size and capacity of the work force" (p.
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From page 106... ...
Biotechnology The report says that the biotechnology revolution will be in full swing by 2015, "with major achievements in combating disease, increasing food production, reducing pollution, and enhancing the quality of life" (p.
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From page 107... ...
economy suffers a sustained downturn; Europe and Japan fail to manage their demographic challenges; China and/or India fail to sustain high growth; emerging market countries fail to reform their financial institutions; or global energy supplies are disrupted in a major way (p.
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From page 108... ...
Those changes in the national security environment included not just the new geopolitical situation following the end of the Cold War but also significant technological, economic, social, and intellectual changes: Prominent among such changes is the information revolution and the accelerating discontinuities in a range of scientific and technological areas. Another is the increased integration of global finance and commerce, commonly called "globalization." Yet another is the ascendance of democratic governance and free-market economics to unprecedented levels, and another still the increasing importance of both multinational and nongovernmental actors in global affairs.
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From page 109... ...
And it recommended passage of a new national security science and technology education act to produce more scientists and engineers and qualified teachers in science and math.5 The commission began its work by trying to understand how the world would evolve over the next 25 years. The Phase I report included a volume of supporting research and analysis prepared by a national security study group, a set of national security scholars and practitioners formed to provide the commission with research and analytical support.
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From page 110... ...
Global Economics In this section, the report looks at structural changes in the new global economy. These include an explosion in the volume of international capital flows to developing countries in the 1990s, especially from private sources, and dramatic changes in production, both enabled by advances in information technology.
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From page 111... ...
Technology Trends American preeminence in science and technology is expected to continue over the next 25 years, although global trends in technology will have their effects: American society is likely to remain in the forefront of the information revolution. Most of the seminal scientific research and technological innovation is done in the United States, and American society and the economy are very receptive to new innovations.
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From page 112... ...
RAND Science and Technology Policy Institute The recommendations set forth here are contained in New Foundations for Growth,6 a report done for the National Science and Technology Council in the White Housed The report is based on a yearlong effort to identify ways to improve (or reduce barriers to) innovation in the United States.
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From page 113... ...
Popper and Wagner list a number of types of direct assistance, including funding of research and development; protecting intellectual property; setting technical standards; agricultural and manufacturing extension services; and procurement actions. Indirect assistance includes regulation of the financial infrastructure; favorable fiscal policies; improving the education system; providing the national transportation and information infrastructures; and assisting trade.
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From page 114... ...
tax credit permanent would be beneficial to the national innovation system and the larger economy. Targeted Policies to Enhance Resources · Evaluate the development of mechanisms to encourage investment in emerging technology sectors that currently receive limited venture capital funding and how such sectors and points of advantageous entry might be determined.
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From page 115... ...
· Seek to define and identify best practice across federal agencies and promote learning and transfer of such practices to other settings. · Seek opportunities to create or use existing forums and venues to foster discussion among federal agencies, between federal agencies and their state and local counterparts, and among government, industry, and academia on issues of common interest affecting the national innovation system.
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From page 116... ...
Ensure adequate levels of public funding for all fields of fundamental .
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From page 117... ...
Industrial Research Institute From 1996 to 1998, the Industrial Research Institute (IRI) undertook several studies of future changes in industrial R&D and the technological innovation process during the next 10 years.
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From page 118... ...
Increased outsourcing, partnerships, and alliances with expert companies and universities will become necessary, along with a significant increase in IT investment. The Innovation Process The need for a "smart" organization will force reeducation of the workforce, which will have to understand the importance of openness to new ideas.
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From page 119... ...
· High-power energy packages. Developments such as highly advanced batteries, inexpensive fuel cells, and microgenerators of electricity will make many of our electronic projects and appliances highly mobile.
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From page 120... ...
RAND The Global Technology Revolutionii was based on work conducted by RAND's National Defense Research Institute for the National Intelligence Council's report Global Trends 2015.~2 The content consists of "a quick forei~Philip S Anton, Richard Silberglitt, and James Schneider, The Global Technology Revolution: Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and Their Synergies with Information Technology by 2015, RAND, Santa Monica, Calif., 69 pages.
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From page 121... ...
Trends in the following technologies are discussed, with citations to a lengthy bibliography at the end of the report: Genomics Genetic profiling and DNA analysis Cloning Genetically modified organisms Broader issues and implications of advances in genomics Therapies and Drug Development Technology Broader issues and implications Biomedical Engineering Organic tissues and organs Artificial materials, organs, and bionics Biomimetics and applied biology Surgical and diagnostic biotechnology Broader issues and implications The Process of Materials Engineering Concept/materials design Materials selection, preparation, and fabrication Processing, properties, and performance Product/application Smart Materials Technology Broader issues and implications Self-Assembly Technology Broader issues and implications Rapid Prototyping Technology Broader issues and implications Buildings Transportation
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From page 122... ...
The authors say their descriptions of technology trends give some indication of what might happen based on current movements and progress, but they acknowledge that the progress in and effect of those trends will be affected by enablers and barriers. They present three graphics showing high-growth and lowgrowth paths for three technologies genetically modified foods, smart materials, and nanotechnology and discuss key enabling factors and key barriers in each case.
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From page 123... ...
Finally, the technology revolution is changing the way people interact and live and work. RAND Science and Technology Issues of National Importancei3 is a draft of a report on the outcome of a suite of projects designed to aid the incoming director GRAND, Science and Technology Issues of National Importance, DRR-2486/5-S&TPI, Santa Monica, Calif., April 2001, 77 pages.
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124 Cq an C)
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From page 125... ...
First, a team from the RAND Science & Technology Policy Institute worked with the Washington Advisory Group, a bipartisan organization of former senior federal S&T officials, including several presidential science advisors, to identify more than 50 science and technology policy issues of possible importance to the new administration. Second, an external advisory panel consisting of Erich Bloch, Ed David, Steve Dorman, Arati Prabakhar, Frank Press, and Robert White, went over the list and prioritized the issues.
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From page 126... ...
"More generally, the pace of technological development in many areas raises fundamental governance challenges. Some of the emerging technology-related challenges include safety protocols and trade rules for the commercial sale of genetically modified foods; privacy of information sent over wireless networks; taxation equity between Internet-based businesses and traditional businesses; and intellectual property protection not only for software but also for new 'business methods,' such as online shipping or marketing, and even for strings of genetic codes.
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From page 127... ...
For example, the RAND report on science and technology issues of national importance focuses on societal needs. RAND has also conducted demand-side studies, not summarized here, that focus on industrial needs in the shorter term (e.g., the next 10 years)
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From page 128... ...
128 APPENDIX E risky for individual companies to invest in depend on government actions and resources. There is also consensus that economic globalization will continue, which will require the United States to increase its capacity (e.g., invest in knowledge and people)
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