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Report of a Workshop on Predictability and Limits-To-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems (2002) / Chapter Skim
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2. Predictability Science: Definitions
Pages 12-14

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From page 12...
... Various approaches to QPF are each characterized by varying performances at different lead times and aggregation levels. A complete QPF system will re-quire not only a systematic framework for the merging forecasts from various approaches but also deeper insight into precipitation, severe weather, and runoff processes that ultimately produce floods, which are the most costly (in terms of human life and property)
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From page 13...
... Interactions among microscale features often lead to effects that are not completely represented in macroscaTe predictions based on effective parameters for microscale models. Examples include enhanced surface flux due to land-breeze circulations over heterogeneous patches, on regional recharge and discharge patterns over complex terrain.
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From page 14...
... For example, spatial and temporal averages are not necessarily more predictable as traditionally believed if the averaging covers a scale that contains a strong transition or change in behavior (analogous to a bifurcation in dynamic systems)
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Key Terms

  • remote factors
  • lead times
  • runoff processes
  • involve coupled
  • quantitative precipitation

  • predictive relations
  • flux due
  • scaling local
  • developing ensembles
  • severe weather

  • nonlinear scale
  • human life
  • merging forecasts
  • statistically representative
  • completely represented

  • examples include
  • robust operational
  • systematic framework
  • deeper insight
  • heterogeneous patches

  • ensemble models
  • randomized inputs
  • enhanced surface
  • produce floods
  • varying performances

  • major challenges
  • predictions based
  • amplify errors
  • effective response
  • microscale models


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