Report of a Workshop on Predictability and Limits-To-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems (2002) / Chapter Skim
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4. Conclusions
4. Conclusions
Pages 30-32
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From page 30... ...
In addition, such objectives are benchmarks for tracking the maturation of a research area, the vision for advancement of the area, and the metrics for progress. While it is recognized that USGC1~ agencies have focused research activities on forecasting and prediction, the workshop participants indicated that USGCRP agencies should establish programs to investigate the limits to predictability of the wider range of hydrologic variables.
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From page 31... ...
The fundamental issues regarding predictability and predictions are not restricted to a few variables such as precipitation or air temperature, but are pervasive across hydrologic and environmental sciences. One of the important issues identified both at the workshop and in numerous previous NRC reports is the need to reverse the degradation of existing monitoring systems where it can be demonstrated that the collection of consistent measurements and observations can lead to improved predictions of operational importance.
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From page 32... ...
These reports collectively define needed research that potentially has wide-spread and deep impacts on society by the incorporation of improved understanding of predictability into the operational arena. In conclusion, discussions during the workshop and written contributions by the participants resulted in the definition of five research challenges and associated milestones, as presented in the previous section, that mark the path towards progress in advancing predictability research and understanding limits-to-prediction in the hydrologic sciences.
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