The Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Improvement Program Assessing 10 Years of Experience -- Special Report 264 (2002) / Chapter Skim
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Chapter 4 - Assessment
Chapter 4 - Assessment
Pages 120-154
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From page 120... ...
This section draws heavily on the two papers commis sioned for this study -- one that reviews the literature on the cost effectiveness of transportation-related strategies eligible for CMAQ funding (Appendix E) and another that examines the literature on the cost-effectiveness of non-CMAQ-eligible control strategies, particularly new-vehicle emission and fuel standards (Appendix F)
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From page 121... ...
-- and focused its review on project cost-effectiveness as requested in its charge. The committee selected cost per ton of emissions reduced as the primary cost-effectiveness measure by which to compare the pollution reduction potential of various strategies.
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From page 122... ...
However, given the lack of consistency in methods for estimating either project costs or emission reductions, the database was not deemed suitable for use in cost-effectiveness analyses.2 The non-CMAQ-eligible pollution control strategies reviewed were focused primarily on mobile source measures, mainly new-vehicle 2See more detailed discussion in Appendix C
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From page 123... ...
emission and fuel standards.3 The cost-effectiveness of stationary source emission control measures, such as controls on electric power plants, was also reviewed in response to the congressional request. The committee recognized the need for as much consistency as pos sible between the two papers in the treatment of cost-effectiveness calculations.
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From page 124... ...
To improve comparability among control measures, the authors adopted a uniform approach for combining and weighting pollutants for which data were available -- VOCs and NOx -- in deriving a single cost-effectiveness estimate.4 Sensitivity analyses were then conducted using different weighting schemes to test the stability of the results. Virtually all the studies reviewed rely on emissions models or model inputs to estimate emission reductions.5 Although emis sions models have been improved, they have generally tended to overestimate emission reductions.
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From page 125... ...
The two exceptions are vehi cle I&M programs and alternative-fuel vehicle projects.7 Both of these strategies affect vehicle emissions directly -- the former through identification and repair of vehicles that do not meet a threshold level of emission control, and the latter through replacement of conventional-fuel vehicles with those burning cleaner fuels. Intro duced in the early 1970s, TCMs include both supply-side strategies designed to improve traffic management and demand-side strategies intended to manage travel demand through such measures as encour aging higher vehicle occupancies; reducing trips and travel, at least during peak hours; and providing nonmotorized forms of transporta tion (Apogee Research, Inc.
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2000, xx) notes that control measures must reach a threshold level of emission reduction -- generally greater than about 10 percent -- before statistical approaches can successfully discern effects on ambient air quality levels, a threshold well beyond most CMAQ-eligible TCMs.
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. Note: HOV high-occupancy vehicle; TDM travel demand management.
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reveals that the actual effectiveness of many I&M programs fell short of model predictions. eCMAQ funds that can be used for either CMAQ or Surface Transportation Program projects; project categories are undefined.
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From page 129... ...
of results by strategy. Using a threshold of approximately $10,000 per ton of emissions reduced10 -- the cutoff point used for selecting control measures under many regulatory approaches to emission reductions (E.
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1 2 2 travel = $60,000 $69,999 emission TDM 1 2 1 vehicle; $50,000 $59,999 Cost-Effectiveness and VOC-equivalent 1 1 1 1 $40,000 $49,999 high-occupancy (2000$, = Category Ton 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8445 633481 HOV. x per $30,000 $39,999 Project Cost VOC:NO 2 1 2 1 1 1 4 1 1 1 by 15 11 for $20,000 $29,999 1:4 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 3 1 18 13 Examples assumed: $10,000 $19,999 was 2 2 3 2 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 5 5 3 Project 36 26 scheme <10,000 CMAQ weighting of programs upgrades replacements pollutant management paratransit bus E
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From page 131... ...
The poor cost-effectiveness results for some of the telecommuting projects reflect the inclusion of the capital cost of telework facilities, which results in very high costs relative to emission reductions. The capital costs of constructing tele work facilities are not CMAQ-eligible; hence these projects are not as comparable as they could be to telecommuting activities funded under the CMAQ program.
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From page 132... ...
Cost-Effectiveness of Non-CMAQ-Eligible Pollution Control Strategies Figure 4-2 and Table 4-4 summarize the cost-effectiveness results for mobile source strategies that for the most part are ineligible for CMAQ funding.17 This analysis, too, was constrained by a limited number of usable studies, as well as by a wide range of results for some strategies. Nevertheless, using the same threshold of $10,000 per ton of emissions reduced, the range of cost-effectiveness estimates was well below the threshold (see Figure 4-2)
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0660-05/CH04-R1 7/10/02 9:52 AM Page 133 (1) Vehicles Ethanol of com (1)
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Number of Control Measure Studies Low High Vehicle emission standards EPA Phase 1 HDE standards 2 100 1,200 EPA Phase 2 HDE standards 1 900 1,200 EPA Tier 2 LDV standards 1 800 1,400 CA LEV II program 1 700 1,600 Reformulated gasoline CA Phase 3 RFG 1 2,000 2,000 Federal Phase 2 RFG 3 3,600 83,500 CA Phase 2 RFG 2 2,600 45,000 In-use vehicle emission reductions I&M programsa 2 1,800 4,600 Remote sensing programs 1 4,100 4,100 Old-vehicle scrappage 2 2,500 6,400 Alternative-fuel vehicles CNG vehicles 4 0 36,000 Methanol vehicles 2 5,300 43,600 Hybrid electric vehicles 2 1,100 18,900 Electric vehicles 3 6,600 72,400 LPG vehicles 1 13,000 80,000 Ethanol vehicles 1 12,600 152,200 Note: A single study may have several scenarios. The following weighting scheme was assumed: 1:4 for VOC:NOx.
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22For this comparison, the cost-effectiveness of mobile source control strategies is expressed in VOC-equivalent emission reductions (see Appendix F)
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Number standards RFG programs are 2 vehicles a HDE HDE a light-duty= 1 2 RFG RFG scrappage Program LDV old-vehicle 4-5 II 2 2 3 vehicles following Phase sensing vehicles vehicles LDV electric and strategies Appendix LEV Tier Phase Phase programs Phase Phase vehicles vehicles The ABLET These CA EPA EPA EPA CA Federal CA I&M Old-vehicle Remote Methanol Ethanol LPG CNG Electric Hybrid Total Percent Note: dards, tenance; a Source:
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From page 137... ...
Results of a few TCMs, however- those involving regional ridesharing, regional transportation demand management, and some CMAQ-eligible charges and fees -- compare favorably with those of strategies aimed directly at emission reduc tions, suggesting that the former may have the potential to yield more cost-effective results. There is considerable uncertainty about these conclusions, espe cially regarding their applicability to emission control measures that may be implemented in the future.
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From page 138... ...
Adopting more stringent versions of these strategies would probably be possible only at much higher cost. Thus, as vehicles become cleaner and the most cost-effective strategies are put in place, obtaining further emission reductions will likely require TCMs and other control strategies that may be less cost-effective than measures already implemented.
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From page 139... ...
. 24When pricing or land use strategies were added to the light rail transit scenario, however, this option had the best results in terms of emission reductions.
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In a briefing to the committee, the South Coast Air Quality Management District, the local air agency for a major part of the Los Angeles region, articulated this position. According to that agency, when viewed in the context of the greatest air quality improvement per CMAQ dollar spent, projects focused directly on vehicle emission reductions, such as the replacement of fleet engines with engines that burn clean fuel and support for clean-fuel infrastructure, rank higher than many transportation congestion relief projects.
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From page 141... ...
Although the program represents only a small fraction of federal transportation funding, it is one of the few examples of a funded mandate: CMAQ funds are dedicated to helping local areas comply with the stringent conformity requirements of the 1990 CAAA. Local agencies view the restrictions imposed on the use of CMAQ funds as one of the program's most important strengths.
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, groups of individu als and employers who organize to address local transportation issues. CMAQ funds have been used both to establish TMAs and to support such activities as suburban shuttle and express bus services.25 The CMAQ program complements ISTEA in its effort to include a broad range of participants in planning and executing transportation solutions to local problems.
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. They include a shuttle service in suburban Chicago to connect a commuter rail transit line with a major suburban employment center, creating a viable suburban transit alternative to drive-alone commuting; a public education and month-long reduced transit fare program in Houston to reduce emissions during August, typically the month with the highest number of ozone exceedance days; an employer outreach effort in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area in support of an areawide integrated program of ridesharing services; and a high tech facility to allow real-time traffic monitoring and coordinated rapid response to incidents on Houston's congested freeways.
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From page 144... ...
CMAQ funds were used to defray the cost of operating the shuttles, with additional support provided by employer contributions and Metra, the Chicago region's commuter rail service provider. Pace, which is responsible for Chicago's suburban bus service, operates the Shuttle Bug.
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From page 145... ...
CMAQ funds were used in 1997 through 1999 to subsidize transit fares by 50 percent during August, which typically has the highest number of ozone exceedance days. An evaluation of the program by METRO revealed that 13 per cent of the 36 percent increase in transit ridership over the 3-year period could be attributed to the program, although the evalu ation showed diminishing returns in the third year (METRO 2000, 1)
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. Funded originally as part of an intelligent transportation sys tem demonstration corridor, the center recently sought CMAQ funds to finance projects that benefit multiple agencies; the local match is provided by contributions from agency members.
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The Ventura County Transportation Commission is working with the Southern California Gas Company to provide compressed natural gas (CNG) fueling facilities to ensure long-term fueling capabilities and price stability for local CNG transit buses and other vehicles.
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In 1999 the Chicago Area Trans portation Study, the metropolitan planning organization for the Chicago region, conducted a survey to determine whether the service was eligible to receive CMAQ funds for the purchase of additional boats to improve commuter service. The RiverBus operates from April to early November on docks along the Chicago River, strategically located to efficiently serve many Metra commuter rail customers.
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Future Program Scope and Activities A broad range of regional transportation planners, operating agency staff, air quality officials, and interest groups who were interviewed for the case studies or briefed the committee at its meetings sup ported reauthorization of the CMAQ program. This is not surprising because the program offers local agencies a targeted source of feder al funds to address the stringent CAAA requirements in areas with poor air quality.
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Two in-depth literature reviews were commissioned to examine the effectiveness of strategies similar to those funded by the program in relation to their cost and to other strategies for achieving the CMAQ program goals. The limited available evidence presented in these papers suggests that, when compared on the sole criterion of emissions reduced per dollar spent, strategies aimed directly at emis sion reductions (e.g., new-vehicle emission and fuel standards, well structured I&M programs, remote sensing programs, vehicle scrap
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Fourth, many TCMs have benefits other than emission reductions (e.g., congestion mitigation) , which were not captured in the analyses.
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From page 152... ...
Finally, the CMAQ program gives local areas great flexibility in tailoring funds to projects that address specific air quality and congestion problems. Deployed in this way, CMAQ funds can also foster interagency cooperation and encourage participation of new groups in project planning and selection -- all desirable outcomes.
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1997a. Regulatory Impact Analyses for the Particulate Matter and Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards and Proposed Regional Haze Rule.
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2000. Travel Demand Management and Public Policy.
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