Estimating the Size of the Soviet Economy Summary of a Meeting (1991) / Chapter Skim
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Meeting Workshops
Meeting Workshops
Pages 13-19
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From page 13... ...
Despite the workshop title, this session focused on estimates of the size of the military sector with only peripheral attention paid to questions concerning nonmilitary industrial production. Frank Holzman initiated the discussion with a series of criticisms of the way in which the CIA produces its estimates of the military sector of the Soviet economy.
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From page 14... ...
of what the CIA counts as household consumption was actually purchased by the military. He also asserted that the CIA fails to effectively account for hidden material costs, the purchase of a variety of services, and the artificially low level of revenues compared to the size and quality of labor and capital resources in the military sector.
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From page 15... ...
Another major issue was how to account for factors that are not normally included in conventional international comparisons of consumption and GNP. The workshop discussion particularly focused on the debate concerning the CIA estimate of the U.S./Soviet per capita consumption ratio for 1976.
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From page 16... ...
They were unanimous, however, in rejecting its application only to formerly centrally planned economies and not to LDCs. Some participants suggested that the CIA should investigate the possibility of assigning a less than unitary weight to Soviet labor inputs in the production of services.
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From page 17... ...
This approach considers the second economy to include all economic activities that are not directly reflected in official economic statistics. While the first definition provides a wider scope for research and does not place a researcher at the mercy of the statistical authorities, the second definition may be more useful for GNP adjustments.
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From page 18... ...
Not only does the second economy affect many of the magnitudes used in the weighting procedures for calculating GNP growth rates, but official prices often have a tendency to follow those of the black market. The CIA does attempt to incorporate part of the legal second economy in its GNP accounts.
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From page 19... ...
THE SOVIET ECONOMY 19 that a proper accounting for second economy activities will raise the U.S./U.S.S.R. GNP ratio by a far from trivial amount, and that it might also help to reduce the "cognitive dissonances discussed in Session III.
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