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Weather Forecasting Accuracy for FAA Traffic Flow Management A Workshop Report (2003) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 35-39

The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
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From page 35...
... In particular, recent advances in understanding subsynoptic-scale meteorology, high-resolution observation capabilities, computer power, communication systems, and software systems make it possible to dramatically improve weather forecasting products for the aviation community. Such products do not have to be part of the National Weather Service suite of operational products; adequate electronic processing power and communications are already available for disseminating any new forms of guidance that would be developed.
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From page 36...
... For example, suppose the aviation traffic flow system mandated that pilots do not try to navigate through areas of thunderstorms once the percent-area coverage exceeds a certain threshold.2 If such a guideline were in place, it would be highly desirable to have aviation weather guidance that provides reliable probabilities of the critical percent-area coverage. This type of system is possible with current technology, though increased spatial resolution of the next generation of numerical models likely will allow much better guidance by better resolving the location, organization, and orientation of convection exceeding the critical percent-area coverage.
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From page 37...
... Several workshop participants mentioned that, ideally, traffic flow managers and pilots would like to have forecasts of the radar reflectivity field. While in the past such a request was dismissed out of hand, it is now possible to generate guidance of this sort using cloud-scale resolution numerical models.
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From page 38...
... Utilizing all available Doppler weather radars, which provide high-quality measurements of boundary layer winds, could be a particularly useful first step to enhancing the coverage of surface observations. Fortunately, the cost of automated surface observing systems has decreased dramatically during the past decade, portending the availability of national coverage on the mesoscale as individual states install networks.
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From page 39...
... Identifying how the FAA could best utilize available weather forecast products by incorporating them into its current operational activities. Establishing predictability confidence limits for all convective regimes, defining key convective regimes and model capabilities in those areas, and characterizing the impact of convective forecasts on air traffic control decision making.
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Key Terms

  • probabilistic guidance
  • traffic flow
  • air traffic
  • reliable probabilistic
  • traffic control

  • forecast products
  • convective forecasts
  • weather forecasting
  • threshold probabilities
  • convective forecast

  • forecasting products
  • convective regimes
  • aviation traffic
  • boundary layer
  • improving convective

  • flow managers
  • probabilistic forecasts
  • weather guidance
  • weather forecast
  • workshop session

  • model capabilities
  • aviation exist
  • decreased dramatically
  • coverage exceeds
  • statistically postprocess

  • layer winds
  • predictability confidence
  • quantitative information
  • convective cells
  • defining key


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