Weather Forecasting Accuracy for FAA Traffic Flow Management A Workshop Report (2003) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
1 The Aviation Community's Weather Forecast Needs
1 The Aviation Community's Weather Forecast Needs
Pages 1-9
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 1... ...
to assist air traffic management and strategic planning in the national airspace, and the current status of operational convective weather forecasting. IDENTIFICATION OF NEEDS AND STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM Operational Forecasting Community During his presentation, James Washington of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
|
From page 2... ...
Tactical planning relies on forecasts in the 0- to 2hour time frame. With improved observational capabilities and data assimilation techniques, the forecast skill for this timescale has improved substantially in the past few years, especially for the 0- to 1-hour range.
|
From page 3... ...
· Identify standard convective forecast verification approaches. Industry Convective weather in the national airspace impacts the flow of air traffic, resulting in large economic costs to business sectors that depend on uninterrupted air traffic flow.
|
From page 4... ...
it produces a comprehensive collaborative plan of action for the national airspace 2 to 4 hours in advance by the members of the strategic planning team. The greatest emphasis of the CDM plans, procedures, and processes is to encourage inclusion of all system stakeholders in the collaborative process, enhance communication and coordination, and provide common reference materials and definition of constrained areas in a collaborative arena.
|
From page 5... ...
Mr. Cranor suggested that future enhancements of the system include new products to fill the gap between real time and 2-hour time frames, efforts to align the CCFP production schedule with the strategic planning time frame, solutions to address convection below the CCFP thresholds in certain critical areas, and improved training for both product users and producers.
|
From page 6... ...
Critical components of verification include statistical and scientific validity, independence of the forecast verification process from the forecast development process, and appropriate matching of forecasts and observations.
|
From page 7... ...
had an actual weather coverage closest to the predicted coverage and that the 4- and 6-hour forecasts generally predicted significantly more weather coverage than actually occurred. CURRENT STATUS OF OPERATIONAL FORECASTING Constraints During his presentation, Fred Foss of the Aviation Weather Center identified current limitations in operational convective forecasts.
|
From page 8... ...
Rapid Update Cycle forecasts are produced eight times a day, out 12 hours into the future, with 20-km resolution, and output provided every hour. Current operational models provide very good descriptions of large organized areas of convection associated with large-scale flow patterns or fronts over hundreds of kilometers and over time intervals of hours to days.
|
From page 9... ...
THE A VIA TION COMMUNITY 'S LEA THER FORECAST NEEDS 9 Potential opportunities for further improving forecasting ability include improved observational capabilities, with an emphasis on increased spatial and temporal resolution of observations as well as improved water vapor measurements.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.