Measuring Personal Travel and Goods Movement A Review of the Bureau of Transportation Statistics' Surveys -- Special Report 277 (2003) / Chapter Skim
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C Letter Report on the Commodity Flow Survey
C Letter Report on the Commodity Flow Survey
Pages 101-125
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This letter presents the committee's consensus findings and recommen dations concerning the Commodity Flow Survey (CFS)
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A national freight data architecture could eventually result in a more comprehensive national picture of freight flows. In the meantime, the committee recommends that the CFS be continued at least until an improved alternative has been established.
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. 3 The CFS restores a data program on commodity flows that the Census Bureau conducted from 1963 through 1977 as part of its 5-year economic census program.
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The published CFS data at the national level tabulate information on shipment characteristics by mode of transport (including intermodal com binations) and by commodity.
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The final report is ex pected at the end of 2004, with preliminary national data available at the end of 2003.9 FINDINGS Data Use and Data Users Finding 1: Analysts and researchers in both the public and private sectors use data from the CFS -- often in conjunction with data from other sources -- for a variety of purposes, including · Analyzing trends in goods movement over time; · Conducting national, regional, and sectoral economic analyses; · Developing models and other analytical products to inform policy analy ses and management and investment decisions; · Forecasting future demand for goods movement and associated infra structure and equipment needs; · Cross-checking data from other sources and establishing benchmarks for estimating national accounts; and · Analyzing and mapping spatial patterns of commodity and vehicle flows. CFS data are widely used by federal government agencies, including those outside the U.S.
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As a re sult of this interest, freight transportation data are needed at a finer level of geographic detail than in the past to inform policy and investment de cisions relating to economic development and environmental goals. CFS data are aggregated at the level of states and Bureau of Economic Analy sis regions to maintain statistical validity and protect the confidentiality of data providers.
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From page 107... ...
On the basis of the committee's discussions with CFS users, it would appear that no single source of freight data is ever likely to meet all the needs of all data users. Participants in the 2001 Saratoga Springs meet ing, Data Needs in the Changing World of Logistics and Freight Trans portation, concluded that a national freight data architecture is needed to "streamline future data collection efforts and facilitate compatibility of various data sources at different levels of aggregation" (Meyburg and Mbwana 2002, 23)
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From page 108... ...
These and other gaps in the CFS industry coverage -- for example, in agri cultural shipments from the farm to the first point of assembly -- have be come increasingly important as analysts and transportation planners try to develop a better understanding of freight movements to inform a range of policy and investment decisions. There is widespread agreement, particularly among the power users, that increased geographic and commodity detail at the state and local levels would greatly enhance the usefulness of the CFS.
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Although the 1997 CFS, with a sample size of 100,000 establish ments, collected potentially useful local-level data, these microdata cannot be made available to the public because their release could compromise the confidentiality of data providers. The publicly available CFS data are ag gregated to avoid any possibility of disclosing information about individ ual establishments.
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· The technical rationale for the survey design was not documented in a sufficiently clear and timely fashion for data users to (a) understand the trade-offs involved and the resulting implications for data quality and (b)
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Therefore the design makes only very limited use of statistical informa tion from earlier editions of the survey to improve sampling strategies and other features, and does not incorporate any pilot studies of innovative techniques, such as Web-based data collection, that offer the potential to improve data quality and response rates. Because of its effect on overall cost and data reliability, the choice of sample size is one of the most important design decisions for any survey.
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A number of users of CFS data shared with the committee their con cern that reductions in sample size are adversely affecting the data's use fulness. For example, such reductions limit the ability of the Bureau of Economic Analysis to estimate an interstate trade index and develop re gional multipliers to measure the effect of changes in demand on indus tries and local economies.
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The Future of the CFS Recommendation 1. In view of the widespread use of CFS data for a diversity of applications, BTS should continue to provide data on the flow of goods by mode of transport within the United States.
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In addition to lowering the reporting costs incurred by many large establishments, such electronic reporting would reduce costs of data entry for the Cen sus Bureau. The committee urges the CFS partnership to pursue the re sulting opportunities to increase sample size as a matter of high priority.
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In the committee's view, neither BTS nor the Census Bureau has taken a sufficiently active role in investigating opportunities to improve the overall quality of the survey and use available funds more effectively. The committee urges the CFS partnership to invest in research into possible improvements in CFS methods to stimulate creative thinking about new approaches to the survey, particularly in the areas of data collection, sample design, survey nonresponse, statistical estimation, and data processing.
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Thus, establishments equipped to provide data electronically- through electronic data interchange systems, for example -- could pro vide CFS data by e-mail, diskette, Web data entry, or other electronic media. Such electronic filing of survey data may be far more convenient for firms that have the necessary equipment and expertise, but would not preclude the use of mail-in questionnaires for other survey participants.
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Nonresponse Data provided by the CFS partnership do not enable the committee to obtain insights into CFS nonresponse such as the reasons for non response, unit response rates by type of firm or other grouping (e.g., stra tum) , or item nonresponse rates.
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Department of Transportation on their use of CFS data. In November 2000, the agency convened a meeting with both public- and private-sector CFS users and Census Bureau representatives to initiate a dialogue on freight data needs for planning and policy pur poses.19 However, the committee is not aware of any efforts to continue this dialogue on a regular basis, other than through informal discussions between users and individual staff members at BTS and ORNL.
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A key decision in designing future editions of the CFS is determining the level of geographic detail the data will provide. Given that the pur pose of the survey is to provide useful data for a variety of applications, the committee urges the CFS partnership to obtain substantive input from a range of public- and private-sector users about the levels of geo graphic detail and associated data reliability that they require to support their proposed uses of the CFS data.
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Nevertheless, the committee urges the CFS partnership to solicit user sug gestions for additional data items and to use these suggestions in targeting improvements to future editions of the CFS. In some instances, relatively minor modifications to the CFS may facilitate the linkage of CFS data with data from other sources (e.g., quality of service data)
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Technical methods for statistical disclosure limitation have been reported in the literature for more than 20 years, and research in this area is continuing in an effort to find better ways of accommodating the needs of statistical agencies, data providers, and data users.20 Adminis trative approaches involve restricted access procedures, as implemented through the Census Bureau's Research Data Centers, for example. Restrictions on the release of CFS microdata are a major source of frustration for many power users seeking to perform detailed analyses of freight activity.
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The committee urges BTS to play a role in investigating alternative formats for the public data file in an effort to provide power users with the versatility they require, while continuing to provide regular users with the infor mation they need in a user-friendly format. The CFS partnership should also consider investigating alternative delivery mechanisms, such as a Web server, for making CFS data available to a broader set of users.
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· In view of the linkage between the CFS and the Economic Census, the Census Bureau should assume an appropriate share of the re sponsibility for survey innovation. · BTS should focus on developing priorities to guide the evolution of the CFS within the broad context of a national freight data architecture.
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Developing these priorities will require BTS to do the following: · Engage in an active dialogue with data users (see Recommendation 4) , and · Establish alliances with other data providers in the federal and state gov ernments and the private sector to coordinate data collection efforts in the context of a national freight data architecture.
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2000. An Evaluation of Sample Design Changes for the 1997 Commodity Flow Survey.
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