The Marine Transportation System and the Federal Role Measuring Performance, Targeting Improvement -- Special Report 279 (2004) / Chapter Skim
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2 Marine Transportation Demand
2 Marine Transportation Demand
Pages 48-63
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From page 48... ...
. This estimate, equivalent to growth on the order of 3 to 4 percent per year, was derived largely from extrapolations of recent trends and near-term forecasts of the tonnage of waterborne cargo moved into and out of the country in international trade (DOT 1999, 2528)
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From page 49... ...
In particular, consideration is given to forecasts of demand for the following freight sectors: · Containerized cargoes shipped overseas, consisting primarily of man ufactured and processed goods, as well as other kinds of general cargo moved in intermodal containers; · Liquid bulk cargoes shipped overseas, consisting primarily of petro leum and chemicals moved by tankers; · Dry bulk cargoes shipped overseas, consisting largely of agricultural products, coal, and iron ore; and · Cargoes shipped domestically on the inland rivers and Great Lakes, consisting largely of dry bulk and liquid bulk commodities, much of it moved by barge. The discussion begins with an overview of current traffic volumes in each of these freight sectors.
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From page 50... ...
Bulk commodities are also predominant on the Great Lakes and in domestic ocean and coast wise shipping. The former consists of shipments of iron ore and coke, while the latter includes the traffic moved domestically along the Gulf Coast and between Alaska, Hawaii, and the U.S.
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From page 51... ...
The forecast results are then reviewed, and their assumptions and uncertainties are considered. Common Forecasting Approaches The accuracy of longer-term projections of marine transportation demand hinges not only on an understanding of the basic drivers of demand, such as growth in the national economy and in international commerce, but also on many other factors that can be even more difficult to predict, such as changes in legislation and transportation technology.
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From page 52... ...
Such com plex multivariate modeling systems require large amounts of data and computer processing and a substantial amount of time from the modeler. Major Sources of Demand Forecasts Because the quantity of marine traffic is heavily influenced by interna tional commerce, forecasts of international trade are especially important inputs in most marine freight forecasts.
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From page 53... ...
· Multivariate modeling forecasts: These forecasts develop an internally con sistent model of future trade through the use of a large number of independent variables and multiple constraints. High-speed computers have facilitated the generation of these complex models, which are used for national and world trade models.
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From page 54... ...
, which projects demand for transportation on the nation's waterways, including the inland waterways. Because bulk car goes are the chief source of demand for inland waterways, IWR employs specialty consulting firms to develop long-range forecasts of agricultural products, minerals, energy, and other commodities moved in large quantities on inland waterways.
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From page 55... ...
Compound Annual 2000 2020 Growth Rate (%) Percent Change Exports 8,133 15,946 3.4 96.1 Imports 12,217 32,455 5.0 165.7 Total 20,350 48,401 4.4 137.8 Note: Figures exclude domestic containerized trade among the contiguous 48 states, Hawaii, Alaska, and Puerto Rico.
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From page 56... ...
Percent Change Coal exports 38.5 18.7 -3.6 -51.5 Natural gas imports 97.4 182.0 3.2 86.9 Natural gas exports 6.2 10.4 2.6 67.7 aMillions of tons of coal; millions of tons of natural gas in oil equivalent units. Source: EIA 2003.
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From page 57... ...
Table 2-7 Forecasts of Commodity Traffic on the Inland Waterway System, 1995/19982020 Traffic (millions of tons) 19951998 Compound Annual Commodity Group Weighted Average 2020 Growth Rate (%)
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From page 58... ...
Million tons 1,143.4 1,674.5 1.9 46 Global Insight Container TEUs (thousands) 20,350 48,401 4.4 138 Global Insight Petroleum Million tons 669.7 1,056.3 2.3 58 EIA Dry bulk Million tons 355.9 444.0 1.1 25 Global Insight Total inland river Million tons 661.7 836.0 1.3 26 USACE 58
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From page 59... ...
The widespread intro duction of intermodal containers in the 1960s (sometimes referred to as the "container revolution") is a good example of how technological change can transform marine transportation demand.
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From page 60... ...
Substantial changes in tariffs or trade embargoes with major trading countries are examples of government policies that could have direct impacts on the demand for marine transportation services. Such changes, and the precipitating factors, can be unpredictable.
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From page 61... ...
Source: WEFA (San Pedro Bay Cargo Forecasting Project 2020, December 1987)
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From page 62... ...
Even relatively modest growth in traffic levels on these systems -- producing 20 to 40 percent increases in volumes in 20 years- will further tax many parts of this federal infrastructure system. Many factors have the potential to influence marine transportation demand, including some that cannot be predicted or planned for.
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From page 63... ...
2002. Interim Report for the Restructured Upper Mississippi RiverIllinois Waterway System Navigation Feasibility Study.
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