Reengineering the 2010 Census Risks and Challenges (2004) / Chapter Skim
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7 Coverage Measurement
7 Coverage Measurement
Pages 193-204
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From page 194... ...
In March 2001, concern over the discrepancy between ACE-adjusted census counts and the alternative population count derived through demographic analysis was sufficiently large to deter adjustment; ACE research through October 2001 resolved some conceptual issues and led to a significantly lower estimate of national net undercount in the census, but still left too many unanswered questions for the Bureau to recommend adjustment. By March 2003, Bureau reexamination of the ACE (ACE Revision II, in their terminology)
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From page 195... ...
to Review the 2000 Census (National Research Council, 2004) , repetition of the 2000 ACE in 2010 without substantial improvement would be detrimental; it would likewise be harmful if the 2000 methodology had to be used, as is, as a fall-back position absent research and resolution of a plan in the years preceding 2010.
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From page 196... ...
for census coverage evaluation depends on access to accurate and highly reliable information. It has been generally assumed that the data used for demographic analysis were of sufficient quality to support highly accurate intercensal annual estimates of the size of the United States population, and that these estimates could be accumulated over the decade to obtain a figure against which the next census enumeration could be benchmarked.
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From page 197... ...
While estimates of immigrants are relatively complete when people arrive with the proper documentation, estimates of undocumented immigration are no more than educated guesses based on INS arrests and deportations and on imaginative use of census and household survey data. For the 2002 intercensal estimates, the Census Bureau was able, for the first time, to incorporate data from the 2000 and 2001 Census Supplementary Surveys.
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From page 198... ...
While the majority of undocumented entries may indeed arrive from these regions, an ever larger number may be arriving from other troubled parts of the world such as Asia and Africa. Because of the relatively porous border with Canada, undocumented immigrants from Asia, Africa, and even Europe are almost certain to prefer entering the United States from the north.
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From page 199... ...
Accordingly, we endorse a recommendation from that report, with modification (National Research Council, 2004:Rec. 6.21: Recommendation 7.~: The Census Bureau should continue to pursue methods of improving demographic analysis estimates, working in concert with other statistical agencies that use and provide data inputs to the postcensal population estimates.
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From page 200... ...
The 2000 census population of the test sites is 2.6 million, in 1.2 million households. AREX 2000 was charged with using administrative records to Provide population counts and demographic characteristics for census tracts and blocks in the sites.
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From page 201... ...
After unduplication and removal of known deceased individuals and persons residing outside the United States, a file of 257 million individuals was produced (Judson and Bye, 2003:114. With respect to addresses, almost 800 million were available at the start, and after unduplication and removal of business addresses (and other operations)
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From page 202... ...
In evaluating the experiment, the Census Bureau concluded that the top-down approach to an administrative records census experienced an 8 percent undercount across the test sites, a substantial figure. However, this undercount was cut to 1 percent by the bottom-up procedure (Judson and Bye, 2003~.
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From page 203... ...
The first possibility is megaiist, which is the concept of continuing to develop merged lists of administrative records as an independent listing of the population (National Research Council, 1985; Ericksen and Kadane, 19831. Thus, the administrative list could be used as the second component of dual-systems estimation (filling the role of the postenumeration survey in the 2000 Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation, for instance)
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From page 204... ...
On the other hand, for the United States census, tracing would have to extend over a lag of 10 years. This crucial difference in the application of this technique to the United States census was tested by the Census Bureau in 1984 in the Forward Trace Study (Hogan, 1983)
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