Urbanization, Energy, and Air Pollution in China The Challenges Ahead: Proceedings of a Symposium (2004) / Chapter Skim
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Emerging Air Pollution Trends in China Motor Vehicle Pollution and Fuel Consumption in China--MICHAEL P. WALSH
Emerging Air Pollution Trends in China Motor Vehicle Pollution and Fuel Consumption in China--MICHAEL P. WALSH
Pages 9-28
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Emerging Air Pollution Trends in China
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, including 5 million cars (State Statistical Bureau China, 2002) .2 In 2000, China produced 2.07 million motor vehicles (a 43 percent increase from 1995)
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Another cause for concern is the concomitant rise in energy consumption, which will mean China will become more dependent on imported petroleum. FUTURE INCREASE IN VEHICLES The three primary factors leading to increases in vehicle fleets in China, as in most countries, are population growth, urbanization, and economic improvement.
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. Since the 1960s, studies of the factors that influence the number of motor vehicles in countries and cities over time have consistently found that per capita income (as measured by GDP)
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Year Cars Motor Vehicles 10 percent GDP growth 2005 7.9 26.4 2010 13.9 42.5 2015 24.4 68.4 2020 43.1 110.2 8 percent GDP growth 2005 7.2 24.5 2010 11.4 36.0 2015 18.0 52.9 2020 28.5 77.8 6 percent GDP growth 2005 6.6 22.7 2010 9.3 30.4 2015 13.2 40.7 2020 18.7 54.5 NOTE: Projections (in millions of vehicles) assume that total motor ve hicle growth is the same as income growth and that automobile growth is 1.2 times income growth.
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Figure 4 shows the relative ratios of cars to trucks and buses and the changing composition of the vehicle fleet; the proportion of cars is expected to reach Year FIGURE 3 Forecast of total Chinese vehicle population (not including motorcycles)
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Further increases will certainly exacerbate the situation unless major efforts are undertaken immediately to reduce emissions per vehicle. Emissions The combustion of gasoline or diesel fuel in vehicle engines produces a variety of potentially harmful emissions.
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Year FIGURE 6 Comparison of the Tsinghua and National Academies forecasts of Chinese vehicle population (not including motorcycles)
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. The relative contribution of motor vehicles to ambient levels of pollutants varies, depending on the pollutant and the location.
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. Air Quality In spite of significant advances in industrial pollution control, air pollution in major Chinese cities remains a serious problem and, in some cases, may actually be getting worse.
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The most serious air pollution problem in Chinese cities by far is particulate matter (PM) , primarily from coal burning.
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. STEPS TO ADDRESS POLLUTION Improvements in Fuel Quality Growing concerns in China about the environmental impacts of rising oil consumption have led to investments in new refining technologies and revisions in product specifications.
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The minimum cetane number limit is 45, with an exception for diesel fuels made from naphthenic or paraffin-naphthenic crude oils, which have a minimum cetane number limit of 40. These specifications imply that the cetane number of diesel fuels containing catalytic cracking components has a minimum limit of 45 rather than 40.
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23 50 50 44 45 45 300 355 365 1.8-7.0 0.01 0.3 trace 0.2 3.5 2.5 35 35 29 45 45 300 355 365 1.8-7.0 0.01 0.3 trace 0.2 3.5 2.5 20 20 14 55 45 300 355 365 2.5-8.0 0.01 0.3 trace 0.2 3.5 2.5 10 10 5 55 45 300 355 365 3.0-8.0 0.01 0.3 7777 trace 0.2 3.5 2.5 2000. 0 0 4 55 45 300 355 365 3.0-8.0 0.01 0.3 trace 0.2 3.5 2.5 Supervision, 5 5 8 55 45 300 355 365 3.0-8.0 0.01 0.3 trace 0.2 3.5 2.5 Technical and 10 10 12 55 45 300 355 365 3.0-8.0 0000000 1111111 0.01 0.3 777 trace 0.2 3.5 2.5 Quality of Bureau max.)
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(% max.) 7 point temperature recovered recovered recovered max.)
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The rapid increase in vehicles has been a primary force driving China's shift from a net exporter to a net importer of petroleum, raising concerns not only about China's energy security and balance of payments, but also about the increasing strains on China's refineries. Up to now, the Chinese network of refineries for producing indigenous heavy, sweet crude oil was able to meet most of the country's demand for refined petroleum products.
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The shift to diesel fuels, although helpful from the standpoint of improving fuel economy, will put even greater pressure on urban air quality because of high NOx and PM emissions from diesel-fueled vehicles. In view of the very rapid growth in the vehicle fleet forecast for the next three decades, China's environment could be subject to severe strains with significant public health consequences unless vehicle technology is substantially upgraded and fuel quality is improved.
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In the next three decades, the demand for oil will increase dramatically because of the rapidly increasing vehicle population. According to the Tsinghua study, unless vehicle fuel economy improves, the demand for oil by China's road transport sector will increase at an average rate of about 6 percent per year and will reach about 363 MMT in 2030, more than five times the demand in 2000.
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1999. Unleaded Petrol Specification for Motor Vehicles, July 2000.
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