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Appendix B Case Study Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program
Pages 103-140

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From page 103... ... The emphasis is on presenting the committee's thought process, not on recommending specific metrics for CCSP program elements. CASE STUDY THEMES The committee derived eight key themes from the milestones, products, and payoffs within the CCSP Strategic Plan and developed one or two case studies for each. Read the entire page →
From page 104... ... Theme 1: Improve Data Sets in Space and Time Solar Forcing of Climate Related CCSP Questions, Milestones, and Products. Question 4.1.5: "To what extent are climate changes as observed in instrumental and paleoclimate records related to volcanic and solar variability, and what mechanisms are involved in producing climate responses to these natural forcings? Read the entire page →
From page 105... ... Output � Publication of a peer-reviewed, multiyear record of TSI that is relatable to existing records � Documented, published records of how solar variability has contributed directly and indirectly to past climate change � Quantitative links between measures of solar activity (e.g., sunspot number, solar wind) and solar irradiance at the top of the Earth's atmosphere Outcome � Improved ability to forecast non-irradiance-related effects of solar activity � Forecasts of future solar variability and predictions of its climate effect are available for comparison with other climate drivers to determine the nature of climate change � Recognition of direct and indirect mechanisms by which solar variations can influence climate Impact � Public understanding of the importance of solar variation in climate change relative to other radiative forcing (e.g., greenhouse gases) Read the entire page →
From page 106... ... , Variability of Solar Irradiance and Gravity Oscillations (VIRGO) , Hickey-Frieden radiometer (HF) Read the entire page →
From page 107... ... better estimates of the radiative forcing of climate change for different aerosol types and the uncertainties associated with those estimates.3 Rationale. One of the largest uncertainties in climate research is the specification of aerosol properties and their role in direct climate forcing (Figure B.2) Read the entire page →
From page 108... ... TABLE B.2 Example Metrics for Case Study on Aerosols and Their Role in Climate Forcing Type Example Metrics Process � Does a structure exist for the science community to evaluate the adequacy of existing and planned measurement programs concerned with aerosol distribution and radiative properties? � Is there a peer-reviewed five-year plan, updatable every five years, describing where and how measurements will be carried out that link aerosol distribution and chemistry to direct and indirect radiative forcing? Read the entire page →
From page 109... ... Output � Well-described and demonstrated relationships between aerosol distribution and radiative forcing � Forecasts of future aerosol distribution and consequences for regional climate based on scenarios of future aerosol emissions Outcome � To what extent are the measurements being used to answer the high-priority climate questions that motivated them? � Are the aerosol measurements together with other aerosol research resulting in better understanding of the uncertainties in climate projections due to direct and indirect aerosol processes? Read the entire page →
From page 110... ... TABLE B.3 Example Metrics for Case Study on Sea-Level Rise Type Example Metrics Process � Is there a coordinated, strategic plan that the agencies use to guide research programs, set priorities, and support budget requests? Is the plan responsive to decision support needs? Read the entire page →
From page 111... ... This product will be needed to ensure inclusion of appropriate ecological components in future climate models."8 Rationale. Our lack of knowledge about the nature of climate-vegetation interactions has hindered our ability to predict climate sensitivity and to understand the response of ecosystems to climate change. Read the entire page →
From page 112... ... 10Dickinson, R.E., 1984, Modelling evapotranspiration for three-dimensional global climate models, in Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity, J.E. Hansen and T Read the entire page →
From page 113... ... � Recognized leadership that enables interaction between diverse communities of scientists � A five-year plan, revisited every five years, to assess progress and set priorities through peer review for the following: -- Implementation of experiments, analysis, and modeling designed to increase understanding of and confidence in the linkages between vegetation and environmental change -- Implementation of experiments, analysis, and modeling designed to improve prediction of climate change and variability at a regional level with the resolution and accuracy needed for vegetation studies -- Development of field and controlled-environment facilities and long term ecological observing stations designed to improve understanding and quantification of vegetation-climate interactions � An ability to revisit the planning process in response to the development of new experimental methods and new insights from other experiments and fields of study � Are systems in place that will promote interaction, partnership, and communication between the ecosystem community and the climate and environmental research community, including scientists, agency managers, policy makers, and the public? Input � Sufficient intellectual foundation in multiple disciplines to support the research � Available funds for the development and maintenance of a sustainable scientific community and for promoting interaction, partnership, and communication between scientists, agency managers, policy makers, and the public � Annual research and development (R&D) Read the entire page →
From page 114... ... 114 APPENDIX B TABLE B.4 Continued Type Example Metrics Output � Experimental and observational data of sufficient quantity and quality to support the determination of climate-vegetation relationships � Well-described and demonstrated relationships between environment and vegetation � Climate and climate variability forecasts suitable for determining the future distribution of vegetation, with well-described sources of error and limitations � Vegetation character and distribution projections suitable for determining the impact of vegetation changes on climate � Published reports supporting the analysis of vegetation and climate relationships � Effectively selected, sufficiently accurate, peer-reviewed, published, and broadly accepted data and analysis on vegetation and environment relationships � Adequate community and infrastructure have been developed to support a program of monitoring, surveillance, and modeling of ecosystems � Periodic assessments of the state of the science � Well-described and demonstrated assessment of vegetation-climate interactions Outcome � Consistent and reliable projections of vegetation change and climate vegetation interactions and feedbacks, with well-described sources of error and limitations � Well-described and demonstrated assessment of the resilience of vegetation to a variety of environmental stresses � An improved understanding of the response of ecosystems to environmental stress through an improved capability to assess the role of climate change on a variety of time scales � A peer-reviewed, published, broadly accepted conclusion on the relationships between environment and vegetation � Accelerated incorporation of improved knowledge of climate-vegetation processes and feedbacks into climate models to reduce uncertainty in projections of climate sensitivity and changes in climate and related conditions � Observations, analysis, and models are utilized to improve our understanding of vegetation changes and other ecosystem responses � Expansion of the monitoring, surveillance, and forecast knowledge gained through an examination of vegetation to other areas of ecosystem analysis � Integration of a sustainable community of climate and ecosystem scientists Impact � Increased public understanding of the role of climate and other environmental stresses on ecosystems � Evidence of improved ecosystem management as a result of use of improved data and analysis tools and understanding of ecosystem function Read the entire page →
From page 115... ... "11 The related milestone is "targeted paleoclimatic time series as needed, for example, to establish key time series of observations and natural forcing mechanisms as benchmarks of climate variability."12 Rationale. Improving our ability to predict climate change, understanding the limits to our ability to make such predictions, and defining our confidence in climate predictions are key elements of the CCSP strategic plan. Read the entire page →
From page 116... ... TABLE B.5 Example Metrics for Case Study on Paleoclimate Time Series as Benchmarks of Climate Variability and Change Type Example Metrics Process � Does a structure exist for scientific community planning and peer review of paleoclimate variability and benchmarking? � Are there processes and timetables for periodic peer review of results generated for each paleoclimate proxy and of synthesis activities that cross or employ multiple proxies and consider different estimates of past radiative forcing? Read the entire page →
From page 117... ... Output � Well-described and demonstrated relationships between the observations and model output � Description of the potential errors and sources of limitations in the observations, forcing factors, and model capability � Improved description of aerosol distribution, solar variability, and land use or land-cover forcing factors � Effectively selected, sufficiently accurate, peer-reviewed, published, and broadly accepted data and analysis on our ability to simulate the climate of the last 1000 years � Extension of model-data comparisons for the last 1000 years to the following: -- Additional variables beyond globally averaged, mean annual surface temperature -- The spatial and temporal character of climate variability Outcome � An improved ability to separate the contributions of natural versus human-induced climate forcing to climate variations and change � A peer-reviewed, published, broadly accepted conclusion on our ability to simulate the climate of the last 1000 years, to attribute these variations to specific causes, and to predict future climate Impact � Public is better educated on the history of climate change Theme 6: Improve Synthesis and Assessment to Inform Human Health and Climate Related CCSP Questions, Milestones, and Products. Question 9.4: "What are the potential human health effects of global environmental change, and what climate, socioeconomic, and environmental information is needed to assess the cumulative risk to health from these effects? Read the entire page →
From page 118... ... Background. Detecting the effect of climate change on the prevalence and intensity of human infectious disease is difficult because of the uncertainties associated with prediction of long-term changes in climatic conditions, the resultant ecological changes, and their causal connection to specific diseases.18 Detecting a change in health that can be attributed to climate variability requires defining a baseline distribution for a disease vector prior to climate change. Read the entire page →
From page 119... ... APPENDIX B 119 FIGURE B.3 Possible pathways of public health impacts from climate change. SOURCE: Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2003, Strategic Plan for the U.S. Read the entire page →
From page 120... ... Output � Effectively selected, sufficiently accurate, peer-reviewed, published, and broadly accepted data and analysis on health and environment relationships � Climate and climate variability forecasts suitable for assessing health outcomes, with well-described sources of error and limitations � Development of monitoring networks that support forecasting regional scale climate variability and predicting its impact on human health Outcome � Consistent and reliable predictions of climate variables (e.g., sea surface or land temperature distributions) linked to human disease outbreak, with well described sources of error and limitations � Ability to predict the extent to which a change in climate will significantly affect public health, as measured by an increase in infant mortality rates, declines in human life expectancy, or other factors � Existence of a health care infrastructure with the appropriate expertise to respond to climate predictions Impact � Increased public awareness of climate impacts on human health � Predictions of climate change reduce risk of human disease outbreaks Read the entire page →
From page 121... ... improved characterization and understanding of vulnerability and adaptation based on analyses of societal adjustment to climate variability and seasonal-tointerannual forecasts.21 Rationale. The last decade has brought much greater emphasis on the potential impacts of climate change on regions and sectors (e.g., forestry, ecosystems, human health, water resources) Read the entire page →
From page 122... ... TABLE B.7 Example Metrics for Case Study on Assessing, Preventing, and Managing Public Health Threats of Infectious Diseases Type Example Metrics Process � A five-year plan, revisited every five years, to assess progress and set priorities through peer review, for example: -- Implementation of experiments, analysis, and modeling designed to increase understanding of and confidence in the linkages between health and environmental change -- Implementation of experiments, analysis, and modeling designed to improve prediction of climate change and variability at a regional level with the resolution and accuracy needed for health studies 22National Research Council, 2001, Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., pp. 36�42; National Research Council, 2001, Under the Weather: Climate, Ecosystems, and Infectious Disease, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 160 pp. Read the entire page →
From page 123... ... Input � Are funds available for the development and maintenance of a sustainable scientific community and for promoting interaction, partnership, and communication between scientists, agency managers, policy makers, and the public? � Are annual R&D expenditures sufficient to implement and sustain the following: -- PIs and/or "centers" projects directed toward achieving the objectives -- The investigation of � Competing ideas and interpretations of relationships between climate and health � Innovative and comprehensive approaches for gathering or interpreting and modeling disease outbreaks � The full breadth of relationships between environmental disturbance and health � Vulnerabilities of human populations � Resilience of communities and institutions -- Interpretive activities -- Development of a robust disease monitoring and surveillance system -- Development of predictive models and synthesis of information � A "climate services" function that enables climate information and predictions to be used by the health community Output � Well-described and demonstrated assessment of population vulnerabilities to disease outbreaks � Adequate community and infrastructure have been developed to support a program of monitoring, surveillance, and forecasting of disease risk � Sufficient spatial and temporal coverage of model predictions to provide an adequate disease potential based on monitoring and surveillance, with well-described sources of error and limitations � Effective education mechanisms to promote behavior that will reduce risk Outcome � Expansion of the monitoring, surveillance, and forecast knowledge gained through an examination of health to other areas of ecological risk analysis � Consistent and reliable forecasts of disease outbreak potential, with well described sources of error and limitations � A reliable system for using forecasts to implement adaptation or mitigation strategies that minimize adverse outcomes associated with infectious diseases continued Read the entire page →
From page 124... ... 95. 24Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2003, Strategic Plan for the U.S. Read the entire page →
From page 125... ... Input � Does a program exist that effectively sustains the needed analysis capability? � Funds are available for the development and maintenance of a sustainable scientific community capable of analyzing climate change scenarios and policy response � Historical climate, health, and environmental data are of sufficient quantity and quality to support the determination of historical patterns of climate-related effects � Funds are available to support the technology, monitoring systems, predictive models, and interpretive activities required to develop different climate-related scenarios and to support the assessment of relevant policy responses Output � Peer-reviewed results from each region and from cross-region syntheses ensure comparability and continuity of data generated for different regions � Have active groups been created that are capable of carrying out the desired policy-related scenario analysis, and is the necessary general analytic capability being sustained to respond when needs arise? Read the entire page →
From page 126... ... arose. TABLE B.9 Process Metrics for All Case Studies Theme Example Metrics 1 Solar Forcing � Is there a plan for continuous measurement of other climate variables related to solar irradiance to enable discernment and quantification of the physical, chemical, and biological links between solar irradiance changes and climate? Read the entire page →
From page 127... ... 2 Sea-Level Rise � Is there a coordinated, strategic plan that the agencies use to guide research programs, set priorities, and support budget requests? Is the plan responsive to decision support needs? Read the entire page →
From page 128... ... � Are there processes and timetables for periodic peer review of results generated for each paleoclimate proxy and of synthesis activities that cross or employ multiple proxies and consider different estimates of past radiative forcing? -- Does the review enable determination of the comparability and continuity of data generated for different proxies? Read the entire page →
From page 129... ... 8 Adaptive Management of Water Resources � Does the CCSP have an effective planning structure, involving both agency managers and the scientific community, that is used to set priorities and implement water resource programs? � Does an adequate structure exist for peer review of both CCSP water resource programs and the research supported by those programs? Read the entire page →
From page 130... ... � Yearly reviews of the following: -- Sufficient commitment of resources to allow the planned program to be carried out -- Sufficient resources being devoted to the development of climate models to utilize the solar measurements properly � Does the best scientific evidence indicate that the resources being devoted to the solar radiation measurements are appropriate, given our need to understand the climate record and predict future climate changes? Aerosol Forcing � To what extent do measurements have sufficient accuracy, precision, and completeness to answer the high-priority questions on aerosols and climate? Read the entire page →
From page 131... ... � Are historical climate, health, and environmental data available that are of sufficient quantity and quality to support the determination of historical patterns of climate-related health effects? continued Read the entire page →
From page 132... ... � Funds are available for the development and maintenance of a sustainable scientific community capable of analyzing climate change scenarios and policy response � Historical climate, health, and environmental data are of sufficient quantity and quality to support the determination of historical patterns of climate-related effects � Funds are available to support the technology, monitoring systems, predictive models, and interpretive activities required to develop different climate-related scenarios and to support the assessment of relevant policy responses Read the entire page →
From page 133... ... � Are research programs producing synthesized results addressing the components of sea-level rise? 3 Effect of CO2 on Land Carbon Balance � Peer-reviewed, published results generated for each site and synthesis activities across sites that identify the most important mechanisms at work � Production of a facility that (1) Read the entire page →
From page 134... ... 134 APPENDIX B TABLE B.11 Continued Theme Example Metrics 4 Climate-Vegetation Feedbacks � Experimental and observational data of sufficient quantity and quality to support the determination of climate-vegetation relationships � Well-described and demonstrated relationships between environment and vegetation � Climate and climate variability forecasts suitable for determining the future distribution of vegetation, with well-described sources of error and limitations � Vegetation character and distribution projections suitable for determining the impact of vegetation changes on climate � Published reports supporting the analysis of vegetation and climate relationships � Effectively selected, sufficiently accurate, peer-reviewed, published, and broadly accepted data and analysis on vegetation and environment relationships � Adequate community and infrastructure have been developed to support a program of monitoring, surveillance, and modeling of ecosystems � Periodic assessments of the state of the science � Well-described and demonstrated assessment of vegetation-climate interactions 5 Paleoclimate Time Series � Well-described and demonstrated relationships between the observations and model output � Description of the potential errors and sources of limitations in the observations, forcing factors, and model capability � Improved description of aerosol distribution, solar variability, and land use or land-cover forcing factors � Effectively selected, sufficiently accurate, peer-reviewed, published, and broadly accepted data and analysis on our ability to simulate the climate of the last 1000 years � Extension of model-data comparisons for the last 1000 years to the following: -- Additional variables beyond globally averaged, mean annual surface temperature -- The spatial and temporal character of climate variability 6 Human Health and Climate � Effectively selected, sufficiently accurate, peer-reviewed, published, and broadly accepted data and analysis on health and environment relationships � Climate and climate variability forecasts suitable for assessing health outcomes, with well-described sources of error and limitations � Development of monitoring networks that support forecasting regional scale climate variability and predicting its impact on human health 7 Assessing, Preventing, and Managing Public Health Threats � Well-described and demonstrated assessment of population vulnerabilities to disease outbreaks � Adequate community and infrastructure have been developed to support a program of monitoring, surveillance, and forecasting of disease risk Read the entire page →
From page 135... ... to support adaptive management � Water resource planning scenarios that take into account contingencies such as substantial decreases in mountain snowpack expected as a result of further climate warming or multiyear droughts that stress water resources systems well beyond their design capacity � Accurate regional and national measures of the hydrologic effects likely associated with climate change � Quantitative information on components of the regional, national, and global water cycle that are important for water resources management, such as precipitation patterns and trends, streamflow trends, snowpack, and groundwater changes � Establishment of the degree to which these components are changing because of factors other than natural variability, such as moisture fluxes and precipitation � Sustainable information systems that make water resource data and information readily available to research and applications users Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions � Peer-reviewed results from each region and from cross-region syntheses ensure comparability and continuity of data generated for different regions � Have active groups been created that are capable of carrying out the desired policy-related scenario analysis, and is the necessary general analytic capability being sustained to respond when needs arise? � Development of scenarios that not only reflect the range of problems produced by climate change, but also -- through deliberative processes -- are widely acceptable to impacted populations � Are the analysis and assessment methods well documented, and is the work published in the peer-reviewed literature? Read the entire page →
From page 136... ... � Do these projections adequately inform assessments and provide a basis for adaptive management and (inter) national policy making on mitigating the potential consequences of sea-level rise (e.g., impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems) Read the entire page →
From page 137... ... APPENDIX B 137 TABLE B.12 Continued Theme Example Metrics 4 Climate-Vegetation Feedbacks � Consistent and reliable projections of vegetation change and climate vegetation interactions and feedbacks, with well-described sources of error and limitations � Well-described and demonstrated assessment of the resilience of vegetation to a variety of environmental stresses � An improved understanding of the response of ecosystems to environmental stress through an improved capability to assess the role of climate change on a variety of time scales � A peer-reviewed, published, broadly accepted conclusion on the relationships between environment and vegetation � Accelerated incorporation of improved knowledge of climate-vegetation processes and feedbacks into climate models to reduce uncertainty in projections of climate sensitivity and changes in climate and related conditions � Observations, analysis, and models are utilized to improve our understanding of vegetation changes and other ecosystem responses � Expansion of the monitoring, surveillance, and forecast knowledge gained through an examination of vegetation to other areas of ecosystem analysis � Integration of a sustainable community of climate and ecosystem scientists 5 Paleoclimate Time Series � An improved ability to separate the contributions of natural versus human-induced climate forcing to climate variations and change � A peer-reviewed, published, broadly accepted conclusion on our ability to simulate the climate of the last 1000 years, to attribute these variations to specific causes, and to predict future climate 6 Human Health and Climate � Consistent and reliable predictions of climate variables (e.g., sea surface or land temperature distributions) linked to human disease outbreak, with well described sources of error and limitations � Ability to predict the extent to which a change in climate will significantly affect public health, as measured by an increase in infant mortality rates, declines in human life expectancy, or other factors � Existence of a health care infrastructure with the appropriate expertise to respond to climate predictions 7 Assessing, Preventing, and Managing Public Health Threats � Expansion of the monitoring, surveillance, and forecast knowledge gained through an examination of health to other areas of ecological risk analysis � Consistent and reliable forecasts of disease outbreak potential, with well described sources of error and limitations � A reliable system for using forecasts to implement adaptation or mitigation strategies that minimize adverse outcomes associated with infectious diseases continued Read the entire page →
From page 138... ... is improved Aerosol Forcing � Regional air quality is improved as a result of aerosol emission regulations 2 Sea-Level Rise � "No-build" zones established between structures (e.g., roads, railways, houses) and the shoreline protect communities from sea-level rise 3 Effect of CO2 on Land Carbon Balance � Crop productivity is improved because of use of forecasts that take into account changes in CO2, ozone, and climate � Conservation reserves are more resilient because of use of knowledge of how changes in CO2 affect plant competition and ecosystem structure 4 Climate-Vegetation Feedbacks � Increased public understanding of the role of climate and other environmental stresses on ecosystems � Evidence of improved ecosystem management as a result of use of improved data and analysis tools and understanding of ecosystem function Read the entire page →
From page 139... ... government climate policy, international forums (including the IPCC) , and/or public discussion of the issue � The United States is adequately and appropriately prepared for international climate change negotiations Read the entire page →

From page 103...

... The emphasis is on presenting the committee's thought process, not on recommending specific metrics for CCSP program elements. CASE STUDY THEMES The committee derived eight key themes from the milestones, products, and payoffs within the CCSP Strategic Plan and developed one or two case studies for each.

Appendix B Case Study Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program Pages 103-140

Appendix B Case Study Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program
Pages 103-140