Thinking Strategically The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program (2005) / Chapter Skim
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4 Characterizing and Reducing Uncertainty
4 Characterizing and Reducing Uncertainty
Pages 55-62
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From page 55... ...
It is listed as one of the key criteria for prioritization of work elements within the CCSP. Finally, "reducing uncertainties" appears in many of the research questions, milestones, and products and is an element of plans to develop decision support resources (Chapter 11 of the plan calls for "scientific synthesis and analytic frameworks to support integrated evaluations, including explicit evaluation and characterization of uncertainties")
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From page 56... ...
2Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2003, Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Washington, D.C., p.
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From page 57... ...
For example, the 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) second assessment reports the same range with a "best estimate" of 2.5°C, while the 2001 third assessment states that "the previously estimated range for this quantity, widely cited as +1.5°C to +4.5°C, still encompasses the more recent model sensitivity estimates."5 Such comparisons of ranges are widely interpreted, even in the scientific literature, as meaningful indicators of temperature change (or lack of it)
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From page 58... ...
The two estimates of mean global temperature sensitivity to increased carbon dioxide cannot be compared meaningfully because neither states what confidence interval is intended. The Charney report did not include a statement about confidence intervals, and the IPCC has not attached probabilities or confidence intervals to its ranges of estimates.
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From page 59... ...
Errors must be considered, even for a problem as simple as determining average temperature. To measure temperature accurately, it is necessary to consider the potentially erroneous calibration of the thermometer, dependence on the housing of the thermometer, urban development in the vicinity of the measurements, and differences in the way different observers read a thermometer.
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From page 60... ...
These interactive model components were added to global climate models because climate-vegetation feedbacks were discovered to be a potential mechanism for altering climate sensitivity predictions. Such an innovation does not necessarily reduce uncertainty and in fact, given the diversity of interactive land surface models, is likely to have increased uncertainty.
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From page 61... ...
9 Mastrandrea, M.D., and S Schneider, 2004, Probabilistic integrated assessment of "dangerous" climate change, Science, 304, 571575.
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