Thinking Strategically The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program (2005) / Chapter Skim
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5 Process of Developing Metrics
5 Process of Developing Metrics
Pages 63-76
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From page 63... ...
notes that many strategic goals are difficult to measure and encourages agencies to develop "specific, operational performance goals that align with strategic goals."1 Performance measures are then created for these operational performance goals. 1Office of Management and Budget, 2005, Guidance for Completing the Program Assessment Rating Tool (PART)
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From page 64... ...
In addition, the themes represent a sequence in scientific investigation, starting from the development of new or better observations, to an improved understanding of processes, to an improved capability to predict or forecast future climate changes, and finally to improved use of information to better serve society. As such, they offer an organizing framework for developing metrics for assessing the full range of CCSP activities.
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From page 65... ...
the accuracy with which Earth system models can reproduce observed diurnal and seasonal variations of the hydrological cycle over land; (3) total water column heat content along decadally monitored transoceanic cross sections; and (4)
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From page 66... ...
d = Case study on the effect of carbon dioxide on land carbon balance: What are the potential consequences of global change for ecological systems? e =Case study on climate-vegetation feedbacks: What are the most important feedbacks between ecological systems and global change (especially climate)
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From page 67... ...
i = Case study on adaptive management of water resources: How can information on climate variability and change be most efficiently developed, integrated with nonclimatic knowledge, and communicated in order to best serve societal needs? j = Case study on policy making based on scenarios of greenhouse emissions and climate response: What are the current and potential future impacts of global environmental variability and change on human welfare, what factors influence the capacity of human societies to respond to change, and how can resilience be increased and vulnerability decreased?
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From page 68... ...
days to weeks, and (3) a growing season in response to external variables and photosynthetic rates of plants in control versus experimentally manipulated systems · Incorporation of relationships between photosynthetic rates, carbon allocation, and external and internal variables into process-based models that simulate patterns of photosynthetic response and allocation (on appropriate time scales for each process)
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From page 69... ...
of the feedback between CO2 levels and the amount of carbon stored over the first year of the manipulation (and subsequent years as they become available) · Models of suitable spatial scale that incorporate process-level understanding are used to predict the response of ecosystems to multiple stressors, such as increased CO2 and temperature or CO2 and ozone · Policy makers are informed about -- The potential for different kinds of ecosystems to store or release carbon under conditions of a 50 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 -- The magnitude of release or uptake of CO2 and how this understanding will be modified by the presence of more investigators in the field · Peer-reviewed assessments that quantify the potential effects of changing atmospheric composition on the yield of different crops · Improved prediction of future trends in atmospheric CO2 levels, given a scenario of fossil fuel emissions and deforestation Impact · Crop productivity is improved because of use of forecasts that take into account changes in CO2, ozone, and climate · Conservation reserves are more resilient because of use of knowledge of how changes in CO2 affect plant competition and ecosystem structure carbon stores are still matters of debate and uncertainty.5 On longer time scales, when factors such as disturbance frequency must be included in assessments of land carbon balance, even the sign of land carbon response to elevated CO2 is uncertain.6 Higher-CO2 conditions may favor one kind of plant over another -- changing the structure of ecological communities, their functions (including carbon storage)
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From page 70... ...
Investigation of the effects of elevated CO2 on land carbon balance has relied on manipulative experiments and natural gradient studies to isolate the physiological responses of plants on a variety of time scales. The CCSP strategic plan calls for augmentation of these manipulative studies, including addition of factors such as nitrogen or ozone, to improve the understanding of ecosystem response to climate change.
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From page 71... ...
to identify specific process studies and regions in which new information can both enhance existing decision support methods and encourage the use of emerging, experimental, decision support tools. In the long term, advances in research measurement networks, data systems, and integrative tools could bring new knowledge and technology into routine use in a variety of applications and operations.
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From page 72... ...
to support adaptive management · Water resource planning scenarios that take into account contingencies such as substantial decreases in mountain snowpack expected as a result of further climate warming or multiyear droughts that stress water resources systems well beyond their design capacity · Accurate regional and national measures of the hydrologic effects likely associated with climate change · Quantitative information on components of the regional, national, and global water cycle that are important for water resources management, such as precipitation patterns and trends, streamflow trends, snowpack, and groundwater changes · Establishment of the degree to which these components are changing because of factors other than natural variability, such as moisture fluxes and precipitation · Sustainable information systems that make water resource data and information readily available to research and applications users
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From page 73... ...
for climatic forcing factors and analysis of the results requires expert judgment (a) to avoid aliasing (the inevitable tendency of high-frequency components to appear to the observer as erroneous lowerfrequency components or even space-time mean values if sampling criteria are not met)
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From page 74... ...
For example, metrics associated with the assessment and management of risk related to public health threats (theme 7) depend on scientific advances in a number of areas, including climate prediction, the linkages between environment and health, and the fundamental ecology of infectious diseases.
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From page 75... ...
However, even these measures can be generalized if the overall objectives are taken into consideration, such as improved knowledge of processes, improved forecasting capability, improved understanding of uncertainties and limitations, and improved management. The key to developing generalized metrics is the level of aggregation.
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