An International Perspective on Advancing Technologies and Strategies for Managing Dual-Use Risks Report of a Workshop (2005) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 35-56
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From page 35... ...
As will be evident from the information presented, the driving forces behind the global proliferation of technology are complex and interacting. Although market-driven profits, particularly within the pharmaceutical industry, have and will likely continue to serve as major drivers of advancing technologies, goals to improve global public health and efforts to strengthen human security and national security play vitally important roles as well.
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From page 36... ...
$400 billion, the global pharmaceutical market dominates the life sciences industry and, as such, arguably determines the trajectory of life sciences-related technological development and global spread. North America and the European Union together account for three-quarters of the financial activity within the pharmaceutical industry (see Table 3-2)
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From page 37... ...
DRIVERS OF INTERNATIONAL BIOTECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT 37 TABLE 3-1 Future Technological Trends Sectors Trend Goal Enabling Technologies Pharmaceuticals Designer Patient- and genome- Gene chips, biomedical drugs specific drugs databases, computing Gene profiling Optimum therapy Gene chips, databases Drug delivery Alternative routes for Nanotechnology, aerosol drug administration technology Medicine Diagnosis Automatic analysis of Databases, gene chips genomic tests Infectious Better treatments Biomedical and genome disease databases, nanotechnology Gene therapy Identify and treat Databases, gene chips, defective genes high performance computing Life extension Identify and control the Gene chips, sequence molecular basis for databases, embryonic ageing stem cells Xenotrans- Develop rejection-free Databases, animal models, plantation tissues and organs recombinant methods for transplantation Agriculture Transgenic Develop higher Genome sequencing foods nutrition foods, methods, databases vehicles for drug delivery Biomaterials Artificial Develop tissue and Databases, transgenic organs associated crops/animals, engineering methods nanotechnology Biopolymers New materials for Databases, computing, biological and transgenic crops/animals, industrial nanotechnology applications Biotech Performance Faster computing for Grid computing and Computing intensive analysis super computers and filtering Applications Develop biotech-specific Advanced software and software tools search algorithms Military Defense Vaccines and Gene chips, databases, capabilities prophylactics, nanotechnology, detectors and detector hardware forensics Weapons Development of Databases, gene chips, effective biological molecular synthesis weapons methods, high performance computing NOTE: Adapted from Terence Taylor's PowerPoint presentation, September 21, 2004.
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From page 38... ...
In terms of number of companies, if this growth rate continues, Japan, by 2010, will have a biotech sector comparable to that of the United States and the United Kingdom combined. Asia, Africa, and Australia together comprise the next largest sector of the pharmaceutical industry.
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From page 39... ...
From the point of view of a pharmaceutical company, the developing world is and will be producing a larger market for these same drugs in the years to come, despite the critically serious global public health threat of emerging infectious diseases. Three likely major future trends in the global pharmaceutical industry were identified.
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From page 40... ...
Medicine The medical sector of the life sciences industry is expected to experience several major changes in the near future: 1. Improved diagnosis, with the goal of automating genomic analyses; enabling technologies will include database and gene chip technology.
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4. Xenotransplantation and the drive to find rejection-free tissue and organs for transplantation; enabling technologies will include database and recombinant technologies (i.e.
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From page 42... ...
Specific goals will include the improvement and production of a select list of vaccines and prophylactics, rapid diagnostics, pathogen detectors, and forensic tools. Enabling technologies will include database and gene chip advancements, nanotechnology, and improvements in detector hardware.
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The Clinton Administration agreed to authorize the British firm, SmithKline Beecham Pharmaceuticals, to market the Cuban anti-meningitis vaccine in the United States. 8This section is based largely on the workshop presentations of Abdallah Daar, David Banta, Rosiceli Barreto Goncalves Baetas, and Decio Ripandelli.
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From page 44... ...
The promise of genomics figured prominently in this dialogue, as did the notion of a new vaccine market and efforts by the Italy-based International Center for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology to engage the developing world in the development and application of advancing technologies. However, even as technology growth may provide at least a partial solution to some of these problems, the steadfast challenges associated with the prevention and control of emerging infectious diseases were highlighted as a reminder of the many obstacles still ahead.
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From page 45... ...
Since vaccines have, along with clean water, arguably had the greatest historical impact on human health, from a public health standpoint, vaccine R&D could drive the global proliferation of vaccine R&D-enabling technologies. However, as mentioned in the previous chapter, the infectious disease vaccine market is a high-risk endeavor in terms of profitability, 14Daar, A
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From page 46... ...
For these reasons, most major vaccine manufacturers in the industrialized world are transitioning into the production of therapeutic vaccines, such as for cancer, allergies, fertility, and various other non-infectious diseases. By 2006, the therapeutic vaccine industry is expected to be worth $10 billion.
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· Collaborative research with the affiliated centers, whereby the ICGEB provides funding for affiliate-prioritized research · Cooperation with the industrial sector · Scientific services, such as the provision of databases and software 18 This subsection based on the presentation by Decio Ripandelli. 19 http://www.icgeb.trieste.it.
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From page 48... ...
Even if the perfect drug for a particular condition exists, if there is no way to deliver the drug to the people who need it for lack of money, a weak public health system, lack of planning, or poor information, etc., then the pharmaceutical is not useful. The current situation in the developing world with regards to four emerging infectious diseases -- HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis (TB)
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. However, countries without their own pharmaceutical industry will be in much the same situation that pre-dated the dramatic drop in ARV costs, that is with little recourse.
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Drugs requiring only a relatively short treatment course could solve problems associated with poor adherence and the consequent rise of multi-drug resistant TB, which is increasing in incidence not only in the developing world but also throughout the United States and the European Union. In fact, middle-income Russia is believed to have one of the fastest growing rates of multi-drug resistant TB, and TB is increasing in the UK at a rate far greater than any other western EU country.
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From page 51... ...
In the February 2, 2004 Speech from the Throne (which officially opens every 24 This section is based on individual comments by multiple workshop participants, comments on Canada by Daar, comments on Singapore by Patrick Tan Boon Ooi, and the summary of South Africa's Project Coast by Jerome Amir Singh.
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From page 52... ...
We must apply more of our research and science to help address the most pressing problems of developing countries." The following day, Prime Minister Martin replied by announcing the country's "5 percent commitment": "Our long-term goal as a country should be to devote no less than 5 percent of our R&D investment to a knowledgebased approach to develop assistance for less fortunate countries." Biodefense25 Most experts consider biodefense a relatively minor economic driver of biotechnology. After all, the annual global pharmaceutical market is worth more than 70 times the $6.5 billion that the U.S.
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For example, technical breakthroughs in the area of rapid diagnostics not only will strengthen biodefense capabilities but may benefit public health generally (i.e., by improving early diagnostic capabilities with regards to naturally occurring infectious diseases)
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Bioweapons: South Africa's Past29 Although bioweapons programs are illegal in accordance with the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention,30 some experts nonetheless consider them a driver of the global proliferation of dual-use agents, knowledge, and technology. There is concern that as the means to acquire or engineer 29This section based on the presentation by J
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From page 55... ...
The fact that South African troops had been exposed to biowarfare agents in both World Wars, coupled with being privy to British bioweapons secrets, motivated the country to devote resource towards bioweapons research and training and, ultimately, Project Coast. In 1993-1994, South Africa dismantled Project Coast, along with its ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs.32 Indeed, it was the first country in the world to dismantle all weapons of mass destruction (WMD)
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From page 56... ...
Although South Africa has dismantled Project Coast and its other weapons programs, and post-apartheid legislative initiatives address the need to regulate dual-use technologies with WMD potential, it is interesting to note that the Non-Proliferation Council does not fall under the Ministry of Defense, presumably because of the realization that such technologies have commercial use. It is also interesting to note and of concern that apartheid bioweapons expertise still exists and may be "at large," that is for sale to the highest bidder.
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