Improved Seismic Monitoring - Improved Decision-Making Assessing the Value of Reduced Uncertainty (2006) / Chapter Skim
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Executive Summary
Executive Summary
Pages 1-8
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Annualized building and buildings-related earthquake losses in the United States are estimated to be more than $5.6 billion per year, with a single significant earthquake having the potential to cause losses of more than $100 billion. Members of many professions are actively seeking to understand and mitigate the consequences of major earthquakes -- earth scientists focus on understanding the source and nature of the strong shaking and defining the hazard, block by block, to our cities; structural engineers and their design professional colleagues work to determine the optimum ways to mitigate damage and endeavor to design their structures appropriately; economists and policy analysts focus on determining the appropriate framework for evaluating the benefits and cost-effectiveness of implementing various mitigation measures, including improved seismic monitoring; insurance professionals and their loss estimation consultants work to determine the expected dollar losses that could occur and provide risk mitigation products to share the cost of damage; and the emergency management community defines scenario events and plans, practices, and assists with recovery from earthquake disasters.
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From page 2... ...
All components of the built environment -- buildings, bridges, roads, utility networks, and dams -- share in the benefits. The records obtained have contributed to seismic hazard maps, to building codes and loss estimation programs, and to innovative emergency response tools that graphically display the areas subject to greatest damage.
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From page 3... ...
. Ultimately, the committee concluded that a compilation and description of BOX ES.1 Statement of Task An NRC ad hoc committee will provide advice regarding the economic benefits of improved seismic monitoring, with particular attention to the benefits that could derive from implementation of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS)
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From page 4... ...
An important role of seismic information is to improve the accuracy (i.e., reduce the uncertainty) of building damage predictions and loss estimates, as the basis for more effective loss avoidance regulations, as well as enabling more effective emergency preparedness activities and improved earthquake forecasting capabilities.
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From page 5... ...
Our understanding of the nature of earthquake hazards in the United States -- the distribution, frequency, and severity of damaging ground shaking -- is based on past damaging earthquakes as well as on the tens of thousands of small earthquakes that occur throughout the nation each year. Improved seismic monitoring networks will provide the basis for better characterization of this seismicity, so that the ground motion prediction models that underpin building codes and earthquake engineering design -- the basis for safeguarding life and property -- can more accurately reflect the complex nature of the hazard.
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From page 6... ...
The benefits from improved loss estimation model outputs include increased public knowledge, confidence, and understanding of seismic risk; better correlation between seismic risk and building code and landuse regulations; more efficient use of insurance to offset losses from disasters; and more accurate determination of the nature and growth of seismic risk in the nation. In addition, information about new and rehabilitated buildings and infrastructure, coupled with improved seismic hazard maps, will allow policy-makers to track incremental improvements in seismic safety through earthquake mitigation programs.
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From page 7... ...
These assumptions relate to the value of the built environment within the United States, the cost of seismic rehabilitation and the number of existing buildings that need strengthening, and the annual expected loss from earthquakes compared with reduced losses when higher seismic design standards based on information from improved monitoring are applied. These calculations indicate a total loss avoided of more than $140 million per year, based on an estimate of reduced earthquake losses together with estimates of savings in construction costs that would accrue from the implementation of performance-based engineering design in those regions where improved seismic monitoring indicates that seismic design standards can be reduced.
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From page 8... ...
The relatively modest funding required to achieve a significant improvement in seismic monitoring capabilities should be considered in light of the potential for reducing the cost of constructing new facilities, strengthening existing structures to achieve proper performance, and avoiding losses from major damaging events. The approximately $200 million investment required for improved seismic monitoring infrastructure should be considered from the perspective of the more than $800 billion invested annually in building construction, the $17.5 trillion value of existing buildings in the United States, and the possibility of a $100 billion plus loss from a single, major earthquake in an heavily populated urban environment.
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