Improved Seismic Monitoring - Improved Decision-Making Assessing the Value of Reduced Uncertainty (2006) / Chapter Skim
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5 Benefits from Improved Loss Estimation Models
5 Benefits from Improved Loss Estimation Models
Pages 105-115
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From page 105... ...
software -- that is intended to be used as a tool for estimating future earthquake losses for the purposes of risk mitigation, emergency preparedness, and disaster recovery. All the loss estimation models share a common structure.
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From page 106... ...
TABLE 5.1 Example Outputs from Loss Estimation Models Loss Estimation Models for Response Loss Estimation Models for Insurance Planning and Mitigation (e.g., HAZUS) · Maximum expected claim cost for a · Dollar losses associated with damage to portfolio of insured risks buildings (structural, nonstructural, · Expected annual losses (average annual contents, and inventory damage)
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From page 107... ...
Engineering professionals use loss estimation models for a variety of purposes, ranging from assessing the effects of proposed mitigation measures on expected building damage during future earthquakes, to helping manage portfolio risk for corporate clients. Standardized loss estimation models can be used for pre- and post-mitigation assessment of potential earthquake damage and loss to individual facilities, portfolios of properties, and geographic regions.
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From page 108... ...
uncertainty in the social and economic losses associated with the predicted damage. In the earthquake loss estimation process, these uncertainties tend to be cumulative, often resulting in mean loss estimates with an uncertainty range of at least 2 to 3 times the mean.
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From page 109... ...
MONITORING FOR IMPROVED LOSS ESTIMATION MODELS Improved seismic monitoring is a key element in efforts to reduce uncertainty in loss estimation models resulting from the lack of accurate input data -- it will improve loss estimation models in a number of ways: · Improved seismic monitoring will provide a more complete description of seismic events. This will lead to a better understanding of how different types of faults behave, as well as how seismic energy is transmitted from the source and distributed throughout the impacted region (see Box 5.2)
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From page 110... ...
Assembly capacity Sa Ground motion record Unit cost Damping F-d multiplier Mass O&P 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Damage factor FIGURE 5.1 Results of a sensitivity study describing the relationship between building loss estimates and a number of variables. SOURCE: Porter et al.
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From page 111... ...
Improved seismic monitoring will help improve loss estima tion models by providing a more realistic distribution of ground shaking in actual events, and by providing data to develop models that more accu rately predict regional distributions of ground shaking for scenario events. continued
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From page 112... ...
112 IMPROVED SEISMIC MONITORING -- IMPROVED DECISION-MAKING BOX 5.2 Continued -- Earthquake Planning Scenario - Rapid Instrumental Intensity Map for Sanandreas 1a Scenario Scenario Date: Thu Mar 6, 2003 04:00:00 AM PST M 7.0 N36.93 W121.65 Depth: 0.0km Vallejo Lodi Angels Camp 38° San Rafael Antioch Concord Stockton Oakland San Francisco Tracy Yose Modesto San Mateo 37.5° Fremont San Jose Merced Los Banos 37° Gilroy Santa Cruz Madera Fresno Salinas 36.5° Hanfor Coalinga 36° Parkfield km 0 20 40 60 San Simeon Paso Robles 35.5° -123° -122° -121° -120° PLANNING SCENARIO ONLY -- Processed: Thu Jul 28, 2005 08:12:08 AM PDT PERCEIVED Not felt Weak Light Moderate Strong Very strong Severe Violent Extreme SHAKING POTENTIAL none none none Very light Light Moderate Moderate/Heavy Heavy Very Heavy DAMAGE PEAK ACC.(%g)
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From page 113... ...
BENEFITS FROM IMPROVED LOSS ESTIMATION MODELS 113 CISN Rapid Instrumental Intensity Map Epicenter: Loma Prieta Tue Oct 17, 1989 05:04:00 PM PDT M 6.9 N37.04 W121.88 Depth: 18.0km ID:Loma_Prieta Vallejo Lodi Angels Camp 38° San Rafael Antioch Concord Stockton Oakland San Francisco Tracy Yose Modesto San Mateo 37.5° Fremont San Jose Merced Los Banos 37° Santa Cruz Gilroy Madera Fresno Salinas 36.5° Hanfor Coalinga 36° Parkfield km 0 20 40 60 San Simeon Paso Robles 35.535. ° -123° -122° -121° -120° Processed: Thu Jul 28, 2005 08:33:24 AM PDT, PERCEIVED Not felt Weak Light Moderate Strong Very strong Severe Violent Extreme SHAKING POTENTIAL none none none Very light Light Moderate Moderate/Heavy Heavy Very Heavy DAMAGE PEAK ACC.(%g)
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From page 114... ...
114 IMPROVED SEISMIC MONITORING -- IMPROVED DECISION-MAKING BOX 5.2 Continued TABLE 5.2 HAZUS-99 Building-Related Direct Economic Loss Estimates for Santa Cruz County Direct Business Building Loss Interruption Loss (structural, wage, capital non-structural, related income, Total contents and rental, and Building-Related inventory relocation losses Economic Loss Loma Prieta $1,845,100,000 $2,275,000,000 $4,120,100,000 |Mw 6.9 ShakeMap San Andreas $789,300,000 $963,600,000 $1,752,900,000 Santa Cruz Mountains Mw 7.0 Scenario ShakeMap Percentage 57% 58% 57% difference (scenario compared to Loma Prieta) TABLE 5.3 HAZUS-99 Casualty Estimates for Santa Cruz County 2:00 a.m.
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From page 115... ...
As a consequence, the output of loss estimation models will be more accurate and more acceptable to interested parties (including agency staff, industry managers, homeowners, etc.) ; be more usable for emergency planning and regulatory purposes; result in better building design, mitigation, and zoning; and result in increases in the amount of pre-event financing and pooling of the earthquake hazard, thereby reducing economic volatility and the crisis nature of post-event recovery.
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