Improved Seismic Monitoring - Improved Decision-Making Assessing the Value of Reduced Uncertainty (2006) / Chapter Skim
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3 Conceptual Framework for Benefit Estimation and a Taxonomy of Benefits
3 Conceptual Framework for Benefit Estimation and a Taxonomy of Benefits
Pages 62-76
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From page 62... ...
Similarly, this report also focuses on the issue of valuing seismic monitoring information within a benefit-cost framework. In this chapter, the following five questions are addressed: 62
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From page 63... ...
The baseline for determining the economic benefits provided by improved seismic monitoring is the present situation in which the nation's seismic monitoring capabilities are distributed among a patchwork of essentially independent regional networks (described in Chapter 1) , but with the important realization that existing funding levels are insufficient even to maintain present capabilities.
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From page 64... ...
The accumulated record of weak and strong motion information could ultimately lead to some type of earthquake prediction capability (described in more detail in Chapter 4)
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From page 65... ...
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR BENEFIT ESTIMATION 65 benefits that will require a substantial compilation and analysis effort, and to assist this process the general principles of BCA that should be applied to improved seismic monitoring are outlined in the following sections. BENEFIT ANALYSIS CONCEPTS AND APPLICATION The economic efficiency of any project, including those owned and/or operated by the public sector, can be estimated by the application of benefit-cost analysis (BCA)
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From page 66... ...
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF BENEFITS As noted above, the basic ground motion and structure motion information that will be provided by improved seismic monitoring is a public good -- that is, a product or service that can be shared by many users 2Revealed preference methods involve indirect valuation, based on observed market behavior reflecting choices (e.g., determining the value of a recreation site by using visitation, expenditure, and other data) ; stated preference methods involve direct valuation, which are undertaken by asking hypothetical questions -- using alternative question formats -- so that individuals assign value to changes in environmental services.
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From page 67... ...
. Although these studies have not specifically addressed improved seismic monitoring, they have included the benefits and costs of mitigation through building codes, microzonation information programs as enhancements to housing markets, and earthquake predictions.
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From page 68... ...
and should be closed pending inspection and which were likely to be undamaged and immediately usable. Further, strong motion data recorded on bridges, together with damage data from these bridges, could be used over time to improve the accuracy of the fragility functions that relate ground motion to expected damage.
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From page 69... ...
carefully documented the immediate or time-critical qualitative benefits that would result from a revitalized USNSN-ANSS by demonstrating that real-time seismic monitoring systems offer the opportunity for society to take steps to reduce damage or loss of lives in advance of an earthquake. Even a few seconds of advanced warning before an earthquake may save lives by signaling people to "duck, cover, and hold" or to drive more slowly and avoid bridges or overpasses.
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From page 70... ...
Since property damage also typically sets in motion the other loss categories, mitigating property losses is fundamental to the near- and long-term incremental benefits of seismic monitoring. One category of losses that can benefit from improved seismic monitoring is business interruption -- diminished output of economic goods and services over some period of time from commercial enterprises caused by the earthquake.
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From page 71... ...
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR BENEFIT ESTIMATION 71 TABLE 3.2 Time Frames and Applicability of Incremental Loss Reduction Benefits Potential Benefit Impact Near- and Knowledge Immediate Long-Term Based Incremental PerformanceBenefit Emergency Based Type Example Warning Response Engineering Forecasting 1. Reduced direct Buildings, Limited None Extensive Moderate property contents, damage pipelines 2.
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From page 72... ...
. Seismic monitoring information should result in benefits by reducing the impact on individuals, families, and communities as a consequence of reduced death and injury from improved building codes, improved dispatch of emergency services, and so on (Peacock et al., 1997; Enarson and Morrow, 1998)
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From page 73... ...
The ground motion models used in USGS maps are based on the few recordings at close distances to large earthquakes and are thus highly uncertain predictions. Effectively, the lack of a more substantial set of near-fault strong motion recordings makes it difficult to reliably implement performance-based engineering, since the levels of damage to structures observed in the near-fault setting seem to contradict the high ground motion estimates currently used.
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From page 74... ...
This is compounded by both hazard-specific and more general limitations of various estimation methods. For example, in retrospective studies, it is difficult to isolate the contribution of seismic monitoring from other factors that influence the reduction in earthquake losses.
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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR BENEFIT ESTIMATION 75 TABLE 3.3 Possible Methods for Estimating the Benefits of Hazard Loss Reduction Resulting from Improved Seismic Monitoring Benefit Category Method 1. Reduced direct property damage Empirical data Construction cost estimation HAZUS loss estimation Statistical estimation 2.
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From page 76... ...
That is, only over time will these benefits be realized. Just as improved seismic monitoring will provide more critical and basic information to earth scientists and engineers, critical information has to be gathered from future earthquake events and provided to scientists in the behavioral sciences (economics, finance, sociology, political science, psychology, etc.)
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