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7 Morning Plenary Discussion, Day 2
Pages 133-136

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From page 133...
... Unlike practically everywhere else in the world, New York experienced peaks in the second and third wave, yet the killing was much more level. Philadelphia had less than one-third the population of New York City yet experienced a higher peak death toll.
From page 134...
... I did not use my model to predict the impact of social distance measures because we regard past pandemics through the filter of intrinsic behavioral adjustments in the population. That is, people decrease their social distance spontaneously, whether by closing schools or through fear, and that was particularly true for 1918.
From page 135...
... and the European Union, which exerts very strong control of manufacturing of vaccines. The production facilities and quality control of multinational companies such as Meriel Intervet, Lohman Animal Health, and even Biommune are very good, so the quality of the vaccines they manufacture is very high.
From page 136...
... The question is what is the R0 of influenza? The study undertaken by Mills et al., and other historical studies of transmissibility based on mortality data, show that whether we measure mortality or infection rates does not matter as long as the ratio of one to the other remains constant.


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