Planning Climate and Global Change Research A Review of the Draft U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan (2003) / Chapter Skim
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3 Meeting the Nation's Needs for Climate and Global Change Information
3 Meeting the Nation's Needs for Climate and Global Change Information
Pages 19-29
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that list to develop decision support activities as well as to help prioritize climate change research" (CCSP, 2002, p.
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The existing climate observing system is a patchwork of observation networks, which are not well coordinated. Large investments are needed in maintaining and expanding an integrated observing system that will support monitoring, diagnosis, and modeling of climate and associated global changes.
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Recommendation: The revised strategic plan should better describe a strategic program for achieving an integrated observing system for detecting and understanding climate variability and change and associated global changes on scales from regional to global. IMPROVE UNDERSTANDING OF CLIMATE AND ASSOCIATED GLOBAL CHANGES The scientific research program presented by the draft plan is of mixed quality.
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The need for research in these areas logically follows from the CCSP's new emphasis on decision support, and is identified in the draft strategic plank Strong and strategic research programs on human dimensions and ecosystems and better integration of economic concepts would enable CCSP to meet this need. However, the committee finds that the draft plan's coverage of these topics (primarily in Chapters 10 and 11)
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The revised strategic plan should address the interactions and synergies of climate change with other associated global changes. Global and Long-Term Context for Climate Science The global and long-time scale perspectives of climate researchers have provided a valuable context in observing, understanding, modeling, and responding to climate variability and change (e.g., NRC, l999b)
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1 1~. Chapter 2 of the draft strategic plan titled "Research Focused on Key Climate Change Uncertainties," describes research areas that address "key and emerging climate change science areas that offer the prospect of significant improvement in understanding of climate change phenomena, and where accelerated development of decision support information is possible" (CCSP, 2002, p.
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Recommendation: The revised strategic plan should identify what sources and magnitudes of reductions in key climate change uncertainties are especially needed and where an improved characterization of uncertainty would benefit decision making, and should use this information to guide the research program. DECISION SUPPORT RESOURCES The CCRI portion of the plan introduces an admirable emphasis on the need for science to provide decision support for those in the public and private sectors whose policy decisions are affected by climate change and variability.
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Recommendation: The revised strategic plan should better describe how decision support capabilities will be developed and how these efforts will link with and inform the program's research to improve understanding of climate and associated global changes. PLANNING CLIMATE AND GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH Applied Climate Modeling The "Applied Climate Modeling" section of the draft plan (CCSP, 2002, p.
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CAPACITY BUILDING TO IMPLEMENT THE STRATEGIC PLAN The draft strategic plan calls for many research and decision support advances, including a greatly strengthened climate modeling infrastructure to address local, regional, national, and international needs; increased collaboration on key scientific challenges; a significantly upgraded global climate observing system, including climate-quality data
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Another type of capacity building is necessary to acquire and develop the computing, communication, and information management resources necessary both to conduct the extensive climate modeling called for in the draft strategic plan and to process and store the large amounts of data to be collected from a greatly expanded observation network. Applied climate modeling and especially the crucial regional-to-global scale climate change scenarios will require substantially enhanced PLANNING CLIMATE AND GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH supercomputer powers.
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5 29 The committee believes it is essential for the CCSP to move forward with the important new elements of CCRI while preserving crucial parts of existing GCRP programs. Recommendation: The CCSP should use the clear goals and program priorities of the revised strategic plan and advice from the independent advisory body recommended by the committee to guide future funding decisions.
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