Alternatives to the Indian Point Energy Center for Meeting New York Electric Power Needs (2006) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix F Background for the System Reliability and Cost Analysis
Appendix F Background for the System Reliability and Cost Analysis
Pages 144-168
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From page 144... ...
F Background for the System Reliability and Cost Analysis Samuel M Fleming1 This appendix contains the following: · Appendix F-1, "The NYISO Approach," and · Appendix F-2, "Notes on the MARS-MAPS Simulations." 1Samuel M
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From page 145... ...
transmission interface, where power generated in power and about 1,000 Mvar of reactive power downstate. northern and western New York state is transmitted toward · A brief scenario analysis describes the impact on the high-load centers in southeastern New York, especially NYCA system reliability of the hypothetical early retirement New York City, Long Island, and, increasingly, Westchester of the Indian Point Units 2 and 3 in 2008 and 2010, respecCounty (NYCA Zones J, K, and I, respectively)
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From page 146... ...
, sive computing power and computer run times, and thus is considered too Clean Air Mercury Rule, Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) , Re expensive for initial screening studies.
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APPENDIX F 147 view that identifies undesirable or unacceptable conditions the various transmission interties within the NYCA. An asidentified from the modeling and tentative corrective actions.
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From page 148... ...
These vary for different NOTE: In this Appendix F-2 only, the "NYISO Initial Base Case" corre- kinds of units. A modern, high-efficiency, gas-fired combined-cycle unit sponds to "Base Case" in the draft NYISO Reliability Needs Assessment having a heat rate as low as 6,700 Btu/kWh has a Battery Limits Capital dated October 10, 2005.
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From page 149... ...
to $9.3/thousand cubic feet (1,000 cubic feet of natural gas is · Scheduled retirements of 2,363 MW of generating almost exactly equivalent to 1 million Btu) through August capacity.3 2005 (DOE, 2005)
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From page 150... ...
150 ALTERNATIVES TO THE INDIAN POINT ENERGY CENTER TABLE F-2-1 NYISO Initial Base Case Capacity Details Adopted for the MARS Analysis Proposed ProjectsforInclusion in StudyBaseCases-Load Flow In-service MW Capacity Status CRPS ATBA ATRA CATR CRPS-15 Dates Summer Winter (*
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2610 2610 2610 2610 2610 2610 2610 2610 2610 2610 261 Pumped Storage Hydro 1409 1409 1409 1409 1409 1409 1409 1409 1409 1409 140 Internal Combustion 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 11 Conventional Hydro 4488 4488 4488 4488 4488 4488 4488 4488 4488 4488 448 Combined Cycle 7041 8041 8041 8041 8041 8041 8041 8041 8041 8041 804 Jet Engine (Oil) 527 527 527 527 527 527 527 527 527 527 52 Jet Engine (Gas & Oil)
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From page 152... ...
In addition, the data in graphs and tabulabined-cycle units that have a low heat rate, thus require less tions in the report and this appendix should be considered in natural gas per megawatt-hour (MWh) produced, and conse- terms of two significant figures, and it should be recalled quently result in lower operating costs.
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From page 153... ...
APPENDIX F 153 on some aspects of reactive power in which the capital cost enough from a permitting or financing standpoint to meet of a static VAR compensator (SVC) or a Statcom is stated to the NYISO (2005)
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From page 154... ...
154 ALTERNATIVES TO THE INDIAN POINT ENERGY CENTER TABLE F-2-4 Committee's Screening Study -- Early Shutdown with Assumed Compensation from Planned NYCA Projects and Added Energy-Efficiency and Demand-Side-Management Measures (MW) Statewide Yearly Cumulative Additions Cumulative Year Qualifying Additions to Capacity Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Rest of EE and DSM Total, Beyond NYISO Additions (Zone, MW)
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From page 155... ...
APPENDIX F 155 TABLE F-2-5 Committee's Screening Study -- End-of-License Shutdown with Assumed Compensation from Planned NYCA Projects and Added Energy-Efficiency and Demand-Side-Management Measures (MW) Statewide Yearly Cumulative Additions Cumulative Year Qualifying Additions to Capacity Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Rest of EE and DSM Total, Beyond NYISO Additions (Zone, MW)
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From page 156... ...
156 ALTERNATIVES TO THE INDIAN POINT ENERGY CENTER TABLE F-2-7 Committee's Screening Study: Impact on Reliability and Reserve Margins of Shutting Down Indian Point Without Adding Compensatory Resources: Comparison of the NYISO Initial Base Case with Early-Shutdown and End-ofCurrent-License Shutdown Cases NYISO Initial Base Case, Using Early Shutdown: IP2 Shutdown End-of-License Shutdown: Alternate New England 1/1/08, IP3 Shutdown 1/1/10; IP2 Shutdown 1/1/13, IP3 Transmission Constraints No Compensatory Resources Shutdown 1/1/15; No (Draft v.2 RNA Report) Added Compensatory Resources Added Predicted Reliability (LOLE)
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From page 157... ...
APPENDIX F 157 TABLE F-2-8 Committee's Screening Study: Impact on Reliability and Reserve Margins of Shutting Down Indian Point and Adding Compensatory Resources from Announced Projects, Beyond NYISO Initial Base Case (Table F-2-3) : Comparison of Early Shutdown and End-of-Current-License Shutdown Early Shutdown With Compensatory Resources End-of-License Shutdown With Compensatory Added: IP2 Shutdown 1/1/08, IP3 Shutdown Resources Added: IP2 Shutdown 1/1/13, IP3 1/1/10 Shutdown 1/1/15 Predicted Reliability (LOLE)
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From page 159... ...
159 LOLE NYCA After Compensation 0.023 0.011 0.032 0.101 Savings 291 632 778 850 + Reduction, b2 MW Cumulative Resources, Capacity Load MW 1,729 4,460 5,186 5,258 Case 33,039 33,568 34,402 34,820 Demand, Cumulative Peak Demand Reduction, MW 291 632 778 850 NYCA Reference 33,330 34,200 35,180 35,670 Side Demand Management, MW 50 50 75 25 100 300 2008 2010 2013 2015 Energy Efficiency, MW 75 50 100 100 250 575 Base MW Capacity Above CRPP, Initial Case, 1,438 1,438 3,828 3,828 3,828 4,408 4,408 4,408 b2 year, 0 0 0 0 0 580 Case Total for MW 1,438 2,390 4,408 of Rest State (ROS)
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From page 160... ...
160 LOLE NYCA After Compensation 0.013 0.006 0.036 0.101 + Reduction, 898 Cumulative Resources, Capacity Load MW 1,189 3,187 2,728 2,728 4,086 3,308 5,259 5,259 Cumulative Peak Demand Reduction, MW 291 632 778 851 851 F-2-10. Side Table as Demand Management, MW 50 50 75 25 100 200 same c2 demand Energy Efficiency, MW 75 50 100 100 250 375 Case NYCA Base MW 898 898 Capacity Above CRPP, Initial Case, 2,555 2,728 2,728 3,308 3,308 4,408 4,408 Resources, year, 0 0 898 173 580 Total for MW 1,657 1,100 of Rest State (ROS)
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From page 161... ...
161 LOLE NYCA After Compensation 0.098 + Reduction, Cumulative Resources, Capacity Load MW 1,729 3,660 5,386 5,458 Cumulative Peak Demand Reduction, MW 291 632 778 850 Side 50 50 75 25 Demand Management, MW 100 300 b3 Energy Efficiency, MW 75 50 100 100 250 575 Case Base MW Cable, Capacity Above CRPP, Initial Case, 1,438 1,438 3,028 3,028 4,028 4,608 4,608 4,608 4,608 0 0 0 0 (HVDC) 580 Yearly Total, MW 1,438 1,590 1,000 of Current Rest State (ROS)
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From page 162... ...
162 LOLE c3 NYCA After Compensation 0.098 Case nes, + Li Reduction, Cumulative Resources, Capacity Load MW 1,189 2,289 4,188 4,560 Load Transmission Cumulative Peak Reduction, MW 291 632 778 850 HVDC Side MW 50 50 75 25 Demand Management, MW 100 200 1,000 75 50 Energy Efficiency, MW 100 100 250 375 Including Base MW 898 Capacity Above CRPP, Initial Case, 1,657 1,830 2,830 3,410 3,410 3,710 3,710 Resources 00 0 898 173 580 300 Yearly Total, MW 1,657 1,000 ROS 0 Compensatory C with MW 0 Zone K, 398 Appendix Point in MW Zone J, 500 367 173 300 840 Indian defined of MW are Zone I, 0 MW Shutdown Zone H, 580 580 Abbreviations MW Zone G, 1,290 1,000 2,290 F-2-7.
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From page 163... ...
163 LOLE NYCA After Compensation -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 0.082 Savings 1,951 + Reduction, b4 Cumulative Resources, Capacity Load MW 5,259 Case 33,719 Load to MW Cumulative Peak Reduction Due EE/DSM, MW 1,951 Reference 33,330 34,200 35,180 35,670 Side Demand, Demand Management, MW 800 800 NYCA 2008 2010 2013 2015 b4 Case Energy Efficiency, MW 1,200 1,200 Base MW Management, Capacity Above CRPP, Initial Case, 1,438 1,438 2,728 2,728 2,728 3,308 3,308 3,308 3,308 0 0 0 0 0 580 Yearly Total, MW 1,438 1,290 Demand-Side ROS 0 and C MW Zone K, 398 398 Appendix Efficiency in MW Zone J, 1,040 1,040 Higher defined MW are with Zone I, 0 Point MW Zone H, 580 580 Abbreviations Indian MW of Zone G, 1,290 1,290 F-2-7.
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From page 164... ...
164 LOLE NYCA After Compensation 0.082 Savings 1,951 + Reduction, c4 898 Cumulative Resources, Capacity Load MW 2,555 3,308 5,259 5,259 Case 33,719 c4 Load to MW Case Cumulative Peak Reduction Due EE/DSM, MW 1,951 1,951 Reference 33,330 34,200 35,180 35,670 Side Demand, Demand Management, MW 800 800 NYCA 2008 2010 2013 2015 Management, Energy Efficiency, MW 1,200 1,200 Demand-Side Base MW and 898 898 Capacity Above CRPP, Initial Case, 2,555 2,728 2,728 3,308 3,308 3,308 3,308 0 0 0 0 898 173 580 Yearly Total, MW 1,657 Efficiency of Rest State (ROS) 0 Higher C
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From page 165... ...
APPENDIX F 165 TABLE F-2-16 Early Shutdown Without Compensatory TABLE F-2-18 Committee's Reference Case -- Impact on Resources Beyond the Reference Case -- Impact on NYCA NYCA Reliability (Loss-of-Load Expectation) and Reliability (Loss-of-Load Expectation)
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From page 166... ...
166 ALTERNATIVES TO THE INDIAN POINT ENERGY CENTER TABLE F-2-20 End-of-Current-License Shutdown with TABLE F-2-22 Additional Compensatory Resources, Additional Compensatory Resources -- Impact on NYCA Including Higher Energy Efficiency and Demand-SideReliability and Reserve Margin, Case c2 Management Penetration -- Impact on NYCA Reliability and Reserve Margin, Cases b4 and c4 Loss-of-Load Expectation Case b4 Case c4 Zone 2008 2010 2013 2015 Zone 2015 2015 A 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 A 0.000 0.000 B 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 B 0.000 0.000 C 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 C 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 D 0.000 0.000 E 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 E 0.000 0.000 F 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 F 0.000 0.000 G 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 G 0.000 0.000 H 0.000 0.000 0.007 0.070 H 0.061 0.061 I 0.006 0.001 0.023 0.082 I 0.072 0.072 J 0.009 0.004 0.020 0.031 J 0.040 0.040 K 0.003 0.001 0.019 0.069 K 0.038 0.038 NYCA 0.013 0.006 0.036 0.101 NYCA 0.082 0.082 NYCA Capacity @ Peak Units 38,072 39,729 39,520 39,629 NYCA Capacity @ Peak Units 38,529 38,529 NYCA Peak-Load Units 33,039 33,568 34,402 34,820 NYCA Peak-Load Units 33,719 33,719 Special Case Resources (SCRs) 975 975 975 975 Special Case Resources (SCRs)
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From page 167... ...
(%) Benchmark of 2008 NYISO Initial Base Case 3 Pool 13,169 NYISO 3,129 Zone H 97 Zone I 0 Zone J 1,094 Zone K 327 Reference Case 3 Pool 13,098 13,269 13,193 14,363 0.5 0.8 0.2 9.1 NYISO 3,091 3,121 3,056 3,271 1.2 0.2 2.3 4.5 Zone H 97 97 221 224 0.4 0.3 128.2 131.1 Zone I 0 0 0 0 Zone J 1,072 994 877 1,008 2.1 9.1 19.8 7.9 Zone K 344 308 274 286 5.1 5.7 16.3 12.5 Early Shutdown with Compensation, Case b2 3 Pool 13,323 13,685 13,578 14,780 1.2 3.9 3.1 12.2 NYISO 3,301 3,668 3,523 3,783 5.5 17.2 12.6 20.9 Zone H 49 1 131 138 49.8 99.2 34.7 41.8 Zone I 0 0 0 0 Zone J 1,282 1,490 1,383 1,526 17.2 36.2 26.4 39.5 Zone K 367 368 333 368 12.2 12.4 1.8 12.6 End-of-License Shutdown with Compensation, Case c2 3 Pool 13,054 13,138 13,330 14,780 0.9 0.2 1.2 12.2 NYISO 3,058 3,069 3,177 3,783 2.3 1.9 1.5 20.9 Zone H 97 97 175 138 0.4 0.3 80.8 41.8 Zone I 0 0 0 0 Zone J 1,057 928 1,012 1,526 3.4 15.2 7.5 39.5 Zone K 331 254 285 368 1.2 22.4 12.9 12.6 Higher Fuel Prices -- Reference Case 3 Pool 16,000 16,125 16,749 18,379 21.5 22.5 27.2 39.6 NYISO 4,039 4,045 4,358 4,636 29.1 29.3 39.3 48.2 Zone H 97 97 292 299 0.4 0.4 201.3 208.0 Zone I 0 0 0 0 Zone J 1,552 1,402 1,388 1,570 41.8 28.1 26.9 43.6 Zone K 495 459 447 464 51.3 40.4 36.8 41.9 Higher Fuel Prices -- Early Shutdown with Compensation 3 Pool 16,366 16,796 17,405 19,132 24.3 27.5 32.2 45.3 NYISO 4,377 4,881 5,096 5,522 39.9 56.0 62.9 76.5 Zone H 49 1 208 221 49.8 99.2 114.6 128.1 Zone I 0 0 0 0 Zone J 1,858 2,090 2,107 2,374 69.9 91.0 92.6 117.0 Zone K 556 560 536 644 70.0 71.3 64.0 96.8 Higher Fuel Prices -- End-of-License Shutdown with Compensation 3 Pool 15,934 15,929 17,007 19,132 21.0 21.0 29.1 45.3 NYISO 3,986 3,950 4,598 5,522 27.4 26.2 47.0 76.5 Zone H 97 97 253 221 0.4 0.3 160.7 128.1 Zone I 0 0 0 0 Zone J 1,531 1,301 1,622 2,374 39.9 18.9 48.2 117.0 Zone K 479 352 467 644 46.6 7.7 42.8 96.8 continues
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From page 168... ...
168 ALTERNATIVES TO THE INDIAN POINT ENERGY CENTER TABLE F-2-23 Continued Annual Cost of Operation Change from 2008 NYISO Initial Base Case 2008 2010 2013 2015 2008 2010 2013 2015 ($ millions) ($ millions)
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