Alternatives to the Indian Point Energy Center for Meeting New York Electric Power Needs (2006) / Chapter Skim
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5 Analysis of Options for Meeting Electrical Demand
5 Analysis of Options for Meeting Electrical Demand
Pages 59-74
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From page 59... ...
and distributed gen- that NYCA system reliability would be determined by volteration (DG) ; age constraints in the system due to reactive power deficien · Fuller utilization of existing generation and transmis- cies in the Lower Hudson Valley (LHV)
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that will reduce load at NYISO's order. This is one of 1The committee believes that the essential corrections to reactive power the emergency steps available to NYISO to avert outages.
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The goal of the reliability simulations was to determine the additional resources that would be required to meet reliTABLE 5-2 Additional Generating Capacity Assumed in ability standards. Generating capacity was added until LOLE Reference Case met the requirement of 0.1, and the NYCA reserve margin reached 18 percent.6 Capacity NYCA Online Project (MW)
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The inference ferences are with transmission constraints and geographic drawn from the results is that with such a north-south trans distribution of additional generating capacity.8 The commit- mission option, using excess power upstate and from out of tee believes that these two cases approximately encompass state, the potential generating resource needed downstate the range of additional resources needed. Appendix F dis- might be reduced from 1,100 MW to 300 MW.
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ANALYSIS OF OPTIONS FOR MEETING ELECTRICAL DEMAND 63 3500 3000 2500 MW GE Reference Case, v.2 Alt. NE 2000 Transmission Model, Table 2, p.
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Thermal Limits Controlling, MW 0 1,250 1,750 2,250 COMMITTEE SCENARIOS Reference case, cumulative additional generating capacity assumed to meet or exceed load growth and 900 1,650 2,770 3,310 scheduled retirements, Indian Point continues in service, MW Early shutdown + compensation, Case b2, cumulative generation added above reference case, MW 540 2,180 1,640 1,100 Total Generation Added, MW 1,440 3,830 4,410 4,410 Cumulative Peak-Load Reduction by EE/DSM Measures, MW 300 650 800 850 Total Compensation for Scenario, MW 1,740 4,480 5,210 5,260 EOL shutdown + compensation, Case c2, cumulative generation added above reference case, MW 0 900 540 1,100 Total Generation Added, MW 900 2,550 3,310 4,410 Cumulative Peak-Load Reduction by EE/DSM Measures, MW 300 650 800 850 Total Compensation for Scenario, MW 1,200 3,200 4,110 5,260 ADDITIONAL SCENARIOS Compensation including 1,000 MW HVDC line, Cases b3 and c3, cumulative generation added above 300 reference case, MW Total Generation Added, MW 3,600 Cumulative Peak-Load Reduction by EE/DSM Measures, MW 850 Compensation including high EE/DSM measures, Cases b4 and c4, cumulative generation added above 0 reference case, MW Total Generation Added, MW 3,300 Cumulative Peak-Load Reduction by EE/DSM Measures, MW 2,000 SOURCE: Hinkle et al.
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, and that of a synchronous condenser The high levels of EE and DSM in Cases b4 and c4 would about $35/kVAR (O'Neill, 2004) .12 Equipment to replace be advantageous in meeting reliability criteria, while reduc- the reactive power that Indian Point is capable of supplying ing the additional generating resources required for load re- would cost on the order of $30 million to $45 million.
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. tive power is relatively low, the committee infers that timely with thermal limits controlling in 2008 is the benchmark for local corrections to reactive power would be made.
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Department of EnAnalytical Considerations ergy's Energy Information Administration (DOE/EIA) re Neighboring regions (New England and part of the Penn- ports that natural gas prices paid by electric power producers sylvania Jersey Maryland [PJM]
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nual variable operating cost (AVOC) of producing electricity For the new generating capacity assumed in this study, systemwide and iterates, adjusting the dispatch of units in the system, the committee focused on natural gas in high-efficiency com starting with lowest variable operating cost first, to determine the mini- bined-cycle units.
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New sources, such as imported liquefied natural gas, and new transmission pipelines are likely to be The options selected to compensate for an Indian Point required. A coal plant might be completed upstate by 2016 shutdown would affect the operating costs for power genera(the first peak-demand period after the second Indian Point tion.
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($/MWh) HIGHER FUEL PRICES SENSITIVITY CASES Benchmark of 2008 NYISO Thermal Case, Lower fuel cost 46.28 Reference Case in Year Noted NYCA 61 58 57 59 Zone J 73 69 66 67 Early Shutdown with Compensation, Case b2 NYCA 63 62 60 66 Zone J 77 75 71 79 End-of-License Shutdown with Compensation, Case c2 NYCA 60 53 58 66 Zone J 72 60 68 79 REFERENCE CASE NATURAL GAS PRICES Benchmark of 2008 NYISO Thermal Limits Case NYCA 46.28 Zone J 56 Reference Case in Year Noted NYCA 44 42 37 39 Zone J 51 49 42 43 Early Shutdown, Case b2 NYCA 45 44 40 43 Zone J 54 53 47 51 End-of-License Shutdown, Case c2 NYCA 43 38 38 43 Zone J 51 43 44 51 Shutdown with HVDC Line, Cases b3 and c3 NYCA 41 Zone J 47 Shutdown with High EE/DSM, Cases b4 and c4 NYCA 43 Zone J 49 SOURCE: Derived from Hinkle et al.
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fuel-price assumptions correspond to a 50 percent increase of the 2008 price of natural gas.) An estimate of the net change in the wholesale price solely 2.
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Changes of this magnitude may influence different gen used in MAPS differ in the following ways. For the assumed erators of electricity substantially and could present operat lower fuel prices, the natural gas price is 5 to 7 percent higher ing and risk-management challenges, such as reliable access in PJM and New England than in NYISO; coal is 16 to 28 to fuels, and substantial shifts as new low-cost capacity is percent higher in New England than in either NYISO or PJM; added.
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The committee notes that criti- market depends on many factors, the projected wholesale cally required corrections to reactive power would have to cost without the Indian Point units, based on analysis of varibe made locally in a timely manner, since losing the reactive able operating costs only, will tend to rise. The strongest power from Indian Point would only compound the projected influence on wholesale costs is fuel costs.
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2004. Reactive Power: Is It Real?
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