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2 Thinking About Worst Cases: Real and Hypothetical Examples
Pages 25-46

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From page 25...
... It then uses two hypothetical cases to describe geospatial preparedness as it currently exists, possible scenarios of post-event response and recovery, and the lessons that might be learned by thinking through such scenarios. These three events were chosen to exemplify the difference in experiences between slower-onset events with significant warning time, such as a hurricane, and rapid-onset events such as terrorist attacks and earthquakes that occur without warning.
From page 26...
... , structures housing facilities that perform critical emergency functions were destroyed, heavily damaged, or evacuated for life-safety reasons. Thus, the attack and its aftermath provide a useful laboratory for exploring a variety of engineering and emergency management issues and for learning lessons that can be applied in many other contexts.
From page 27...
... Eventually, more than 100 volunteers assisted in responding to more than 3,000 individual requests for geospatial information in support of the search and recovery efforts at the World Trade Center site. Responders were able to track mobile offices, medical support teams, heat from the fires, hazards, debris, and the daily progress of the search teams using geospatial data and tools.
From page 28...
... Picture provided with the permission of the New York City Office of Emergency Management.
From page 29...
... This picture is provided with the permission of the New York State Office of Cyber Security and Critical Infrastructure Coordination. FIGURE 2.3 Aerial imagery depicting detailed elevation data obtained through the use of LIDAR (light detection and ranging)
From page 30...
... professionals who respond to emergencies to understand the needs of emergency responders and to have trained to meet those needs; · The value of providing close geospatial support to first responders, sometimes referred to as a mobile or away team, which can be of assistance in providing the latest information, laying out search grids, analyzing data found, and transmitting event data back to the emergency operations center documenting the latest conditions at the incident site; · The need to reduce the lag time in processing remote-sensing imagery, to avoid reducing its value for search and rescue and damage assessments; · The need to have backup data for emergency management operations securely stored in widely distributed geographic locations; · The need to have a preestablished list of geospatial professionals to provide support when needed during a catastrophe; · The need to avoid duplication of effort and the confusion that results when the same products are generated by multiple groups; and · The problems of relying on connectivity to the Internet in the immediate aftermath of a disaster, when it can be more efficient to distribute data by hand using physical storage media. 2.2 A HYPOTHETICAL CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE MAKING LANDFALL ON LONG ISLAND, NEW YORK 2.2.1 Background It is late September, and a Category 4-5 hurricane has formed in the warmer-than-normal Atlantic Ocean and begins moving northward at a significant distance off the eastern seaboard of the United States.
From page 31...
... THINKING ABOUT WORST CASES 31 FIGURE 2.4 The track of the Great Hurricane of 1938, known as the Long Island Express, as it moved across the Atlantic Ocean and up the eastern seaboard. SOURCE: Figure created by Daniel Vietor, Unisys Corporation.
From page 32...
... Natural disaster response plans (state, regional, county, and municipal) include geospatial data such as · Locations of population and infrastructure, detailed maps providing estimates of the number of residents in each small area; · Locations of critical infrastructure potentially impacted by the impending storm; · Shelter locations, capacity, and service areas; · Track of the hurricane overlaid on maps of populations at risk; · Likely storm-surge inundation zones delineated using SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes)
From page 33...
... Emergency responders have an urgent need for maps to organize search and rescue and initial response. Responders trying to rescue victims cannot get information about water depths, locations of high ground, and locations of dry streets so they can figure out where to launch boats and viable routes to and from launch sites.
From page 34...
... Other support is provided as needed from the state GIS team in the state emergency operations center. The teams fill many gaps for the county; however, their lack of connectivity with county networks results in delays in getting the information to the appropriate responders on the ground.
From page 35...
... Few first responders have computer systems that allow them to share data directly with each other and the emergency managers in their jurisdictions. In some cases, emergency management officials do not even use the same geospatial data and tools as other agencies in their own jurisdiction, even in jurisdictions where enterprise-wide standards have been adopted.
From page 36...
... The notification and education of the public for evacuation and sheltering could be more effective if geospatial information such as maps were available in the form of pamphlets, on billboards, or in the local phone book. Rapid procurement of digital imagery is critical during response.
From page 37...
... A secure on-line spatial decision support system designed for use by people with minimal GIS skills would facilitate emergency response decision making and provide a useful tool for local responders.2 Tools that automatically provide Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinates to users would allow damage reports to be georeferenced quickly and easily, avoiding the need to wait until a trained GIS professional is available to perform the task.
From page 38...
... . GPS-enabled handheld devices for damage assessment will speed up the process of response and recovery as communities seek federal disaster aid.
From page 39...
... . Power and transmission 5The Southern California Earthquake Center projects losses of up to $250 billion for earthquakes on the Puente Hills fault under Los Angeles; see http://www.scec.org/research/ 050525puentehills.htm and Field et al.
From page 40...
... Aftershocks continue for the next few days and keep the city on edge. 2.3.2 Pre-event Geospatial Preparedness As part of their disaster preparedness, both the City of Los Angeles and the much larger County of Los Angeles have geospatial data and tools that are frequently used and constantly maintained, and emergency management personnel are regularly trained in their use.
From page 41...
... · Communication systems capable of reporting the user's location, accessing and displaying maps, and performing other simple functions on geospatial data are available on a limited basis for selected city and county emergency managers, but are not widely distributed to local first responders. · Building inventory data is integrated with cadastral data for the entire county.
From page 42...
... Emergency power generation quickly enables some computer systems to become operational, providing access to geospatial data and tools. The region has an extensive network of trained geospatial professionals, especially among its HAZUS working group.6 Calls go out to mobilize this 6HAZUS is FEMA's geospatial tool for estimating potential losses from disasters; see http:/ /www.fema.gov/hazus/.
From page 43...
... The trained volunteer labor, however, proved useful. Mobile, handheld devices for search and rescue and initial damage assessments by first responders would enhance the disaster response, especially if these could be enabled with simple geospatial data and tools, including GPS.
From page 44...
... 2.4 SUMMARY All three of these cases, whether real or hypothetical, afford an opportunity to illustrate the value of geospatial data and tools in emergency management, to give examples of the current status of geospatial preparedness, and to ask what could be done better. Although these cases focus primarily on the initial response phase, geospatial data and tools also play vital roles in short- and long-term recovery.
From page 45...
... Would better integration of geospatial information into the emergency management workflow improve decision making at all levels? Is there a need for better training in the use of geospatial data and tools among emergency management officials, and are geospatial professionals sufficiently trained in emergency management processes and practices?


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