Analysis of Global Change Assessments Lessons Learned (2007) / Chapter Skim
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1 Introduction
1 Introduction
Pages 13-26
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Therefore, CCSP asked the National Academies to look at lessons learned from past global change assessments and to provide the program with guidance on its approach to the next assessment activity. In response, an ad hoc committee was formed by the National Academies to conduct a comparative analysis of past global change assessments (Table 1.1)
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. Arctic Climate Primary objectives were to evaluate and synthesize knowledge Impact Assessment and indicators of climate variability, climate change, and (ACIA)
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. Atmosphere" Synthesis and The 21 current assessment products were designed to Assessment Products address the mandate of the Global Change Research Act, by the U.S.
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. As a consequence of the many reports on the topic, Congress established the National Climate Program in 1978, as part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and charged the program to conduct climate impact assessments and study policy options for reducing human-induced climate change.
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1983 NRC report Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Second Assessment confirms the first report's finding regarding climate sensitivity and predicts the doubling to occur during the last quarter of the century. It calls for research into energy sources other than fossil fuel and suggests that if addressed now, climate change from greenhouse gases would be manageable (NRC 1983)
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. According to this law, the GCRP is aimed "at understanding and responding to global change, including the cumulative effects of human activities and natural processes on the environment, to promote discussions toward international protocols in global change research, and for other purposes." The GCRP was originally envisioned as a complete global change research program, covering research on natural climate change, humaninduced climate change, impacts of climate and land-use change on the Earth system, and impacts of human activity on ecosystem health.
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and International Scientific Effort • Identify Natural and Human-Induced Change • Focus on Interactions and Interdisciplinary Science • Share Financial Burden, Use the Best Resources, and Encourage Full Participation INTEGRATING PRIORITIES • Documentation of Earth System Change • Observational Programs • Data Management Systems • Focused Studies on Controlling Processes and Improved Understanding • Integrated Conceptual and Predictive Models SCIENCE PRORITIES Solid Earth Earth System Human Climate and Biogeochemical Ecological Solar Processes History Interactions Hydrologic Dynamics Systems and Influences Systems Dynamics Coastal Paleoclimate Data Base Bio/Atm/Ocean EUV/UV Erosion Monitoring Paleocology Development Role of Clouds Fluxes of Trace Long-term Volcanic Atm/Solar Atmospheric Ocean Species Models Measurements Processes Energy Composition Circulation Atm Processing of Linking: of Structure Permafrost Compiling Increasing Priority Ocean and Heat Trace Species Population and Marine /Function Irradiance Circulation Flux Surface/Deep Water Growth and Gas Response to (Measure/ and Land/Atm/ Biogeochemistry Hydrates Distribution Model) Climate and Ocean/ Composition Ocean Terrestrial Energy Climate/Solar Other Seafloor Ocean Water & Biosphere Nutrient Record Demands Stresses Heat and Proxy Productivity Energy and Carbon Changes in Interactions Energy Measure Seal Level Fluxes Cycling Land Use between Fluxes ments and Change Coupled Terrestrial Input to Industrial Physical and Superficial LongTerm Paleohydrology Climate Marine Productions Processes Biological Data Base System & Ecosystems Crustal Processes Quantitative Motions and Models of Sea Level Links Interactions, Ocean/Atm/ Feedbacks, Cyroshpere and Interactions Responses Productivity/ Resource Models Increasing Priority FIGURE 1.1 The goal, objectives, and scientific framework for the U.S.
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and identify priority areas where investments can make a difference." The Secretary of Commerce, working with other agencies, was directed to "set priorities for additional investments in climate change research, review such investments, and to improve coordination amongst Federal agencies." To respond to the President's initiative and meet the requirements of the GCRA of 1990, the CCSP was initiated in 2002. Thirteen federal departments and agencies that fund or carry out global change research participate in the program and serve on the CCSP Interagency Committee, which is chaired by the CCSP Director, who is the Assistant Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere.
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reduce the most important uncertainties in climate science and advance climate modeling capabilities, BOX 1.2 Vision and Goals of the CCSP CCSP's vision for the program: A nation and the global community empowered with the science-based knowl edge to manage the risks and opportunities of change in the climate and related environmental systems. CCSP's goals for the program: • Improve knowledge of the Earth's past and present climate and environ ment, including its natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and change.
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but differ significantly from both. For example, process assessments seek to build consensus around the latest scientific information, which is clearly distinct from the scientific process that solely reports observations and experimental results.
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. The literature identifies three essential properties of effective assessments: credibility, legitimacy, and salience (Ravetz 1971; Clark and Majone 1985; Social Learning Group 2001a; see also Box 1.3)
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Credibility is ascribed by scientific experts if they regard an assessment as trustworthy, based on indicators similar to those they use to evaluate the trustworthiness of other scientific work (Social Learning Group 2001a)
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STuDY APPROACH AND REPORT ROAD MAP The requested analysis of past global change assessments involved a three-pronged approach: building on existing scholarly work, drawing from
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Despite the fact that this represents a relatively limited sample of assessments, the committee recognized the diversity of external and internal factors that can lead to success and the need to distinguish assessments based on their external conditions and goals when comparing and drawing conclusion regarding assessment design. Chapter 2 elaborates further on this distinction and provides a framework to illustrate the relevant factors in the assessments process, such as the context at the inception of the assessment, the conditions established at that time, and the design choices made within the conduct of an assessment.
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Key Terms
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