Decadal Science Strategy Surveys Report of a Workshop (2007) / Chapter Skim
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3 Assessing Cost and Technology Readiness
3 Assessing Cost and Technology Readiness
Pages 21-30
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From page 21... ...
The current process seems to support initiation of a large number of programs, but it fails to support the completion of many programs. He went on to say that if the objective is to complete projects successfully, then the survey committees aren't doing the cost estimating right -- too many of them
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From page 22... ...
Mr. Battel mentioned that cost estimates in past decadal surveys had been 1.5 to 4 times lower than the actual costs of a mission.
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From page 23... ...
Similarly, he noted that survey committees should • Require that programs are technically ready so they can be accomplished within a decade, • Ensure that programs are properly scaled in size and have realistic cost numbers vetted through certified modeling processes, • Provide specific guidance on mission-enabling technologies, • Establish metrics and methods for creating and maintaining program balance, and • Work with agencies to find effective advisory mechanisms for obtaining tactical advice from the research community. The discussion after Mr.
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From page 24... ...
He said it is unrealistic to think we can get valid cost estimates for undefined missions unless we develop "ridiculously unambitious" missions. He suggested that survey committees need to look more at mission class, their risk, and their damage potential.
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From page 25... ...
ASSESSING COST AND TECHNOLOGY READINESS TABLE 3.1 Potential Cost Growth in Some Mission Classes Mission 30% Mission Cost Overrun Class Characteristics (billion $) (billion $)
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From page 26... ...
For this reason, cost estimates based on traditional spacecraft system parameters such as mass are not as accurate today. Some participants expressed doubts about the ability of survey committees to produce a good estimate of flagship mission costs so early in their conceptual design.
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From page 27... ...
This means that survey committees need to also include expertise on cost modeling, technology development, and societal benefit. Workshop participants noted that the Explorer and Discovery programs have had to solve their own cost growth problems, while flagship programs appear to have "a license to steal" from other programs to fix their problems.
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From page 28... ...
It was also suggested that survey committees should contract out at least two independent cost estimates. It was clear from the discussion that missions (particularly large ones)
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From page 29... ...
Participants generally viewed the following as important for future survey committees to consider: • Survey committee members having expertise in cost and technology readiness. • Use of uniform, independent costing approaches so that costs can be cross-compared.
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From page 30... ...
• Holding NASA center missions to the same cost growth criteria as PI-led missions.
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