Research on Future Skill Demands A Workshop Summary (2008) / Chapter Skim
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2 Labor Market Trends: A Loss of Middle-Class Jobs?
2 Labor Market Trends: A Loss of Middle-Class Jobs?
Pages 6-14
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From page 6... ...
From this, BLS derives final demand and output in major industry sectors. Next, BLS analysts translate output in each industry sector into occupational employment in that industry sector.
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From page 7... ...
Most jobs in the professional and related cluster -- such as health care practitioners and technicians; education, training, and library professionals; and computer and mathematical science professionals -- require at least a bachelor's degree and pay high wages. In contrast, most jobs in the service cluster -- such as those in food preparation and serving and in health care support -- require no more than a high school diploma and pay low wages.
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From page 8... ...
TABLE 2-1 Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections 2004-2014, by Major Occupational Group (numbers in thousands) Employment Change Number % Number % Title 2004 2014 2004 2014 Total, all occupations 145,612 164,540 100.0 100.0 18,928 13.0 Management, business, and 14,987 17,142 10.3 10.4 2,155 14.4 financial Professional and related 28,544 34,590 19.6 21.0 6,046 21.2 Service 27,673 32,930 19.0 20.0 5,257 19.0 Sales and related 15,330 16,806 10.5 10.2 1,476 9.6 Office and administrative support 23,907 25,287 16.4 15.4 1,380 5.8 Farming, fishing, and forestry 1,026 1,013 0.7 0.6 –13 –1.3 Construction and extraction 7,738 8,669 5.3 5.3 931 12.0 Installation, maintenance, and 5,747 6,404 3.9 3.9 657 11.4 repair Production 10,562 10,483 7.3 6.4 –79 –.7 Transportation and material 10,098 11,214 6.9 6.8 1,116 11.1 moving SOURCE: Hecker (2005)
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From page 9... ...
argued that forecasting future skill demands may not be as straightforward as Sommers' presentation of the BLS projections suggests. He noted that rapid technological change may have profound impacts on the labor market.
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, with fewer jobs involving routine TABLE 2-2 Potential Impacts of Computerization on Three Major Task Categories Type of Task Task Description Example Occupations Potential Impacts Routine • Rules-based • Bookkeepers Direct substitution • Repetitive • ssembly line A • Procedural workers Abstract • bstract problem A • Scientists Strong complementarity solving • Attorneys • Mental flexibility • Managers • Doctors Manual • nvironmental E • Truck drivers Limited complementarity adaptability • Security guards or substitution • nterpersonal I • Waiters adaptability • Maids/janitors SOURCE: Autor (2007a)
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From page 11... ...
The future economy will be not only a "knowledge" economy, but also a service economy. Response Janis Houston (Personnel Decisions Research Institutes)
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She has observed less demand for mathematics ability, which is in line with Autor's conclusions about declining demand for routine tasks, including routine mathematical calculations. DISCUSSION Moderator Peter Cappelli (University of Pennsylvania)
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, labor economist Eileen Appelbaum (Rutgers University) questioned whether Autor assumed that, because service jobs such as child care workers receive low pay, they are unskilled workers performing manual tasks.
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Holzer expressed concern that the popularity of the polarization metaphor is leading to a polarized education policy, focusing on college for all and standardized testing. While agreeing that he did not want to suggest that there are no mid-level jobs, Autor nevertheless argued that the current trend raises an important policy question about how to help people move from low-wage to high-wage positions if there are fewer jobs in the middle.
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