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4 Applying Risk Assessment Methods to Food Microbiology
Pages 37-45

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From page 37...
... RISK ASSESSMENT METHODS Presenter: Robert Buchanan Risk Assessment Overview Risk assessment is a method for applying pertinent scientific data to make risk-management decisions. High-quality risk assessments identify clearly what is and what is not known; they characterize how well the data are known, taking into account the variability and uncertainty in the data; and they are sufficiently transparent to reveal possible biases or errors in reasoning.
From page 38...
... Although semi-quantitative assessments are the most widely used of these classes, Buchanan focused on quantitative methods. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment A quantitative microbial risk assessment produces a mathematical statement that is based on the cumulative probabilities of certain adverse events happening following an exposure to a hazardous agent.
From page 39...
... population. The results are being used to focus inspection activities, surveillance activities, educational strategies, research, and new risk assessments.
From page 40...
... This type of risk assessment involves modeling the factors that affect the introduction of a disease agent, the ability of an infection to be selfsustaining in a population, the factors that affect the rate of dissemination of the infection, and the degree to which mitigation activities disrupt the dissemination. An example of such a geographical risk assessment is the Harvard bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE)
From page 41...
... Food and Agriculture Organization/World Health Organization Joint Expert Meetings on Microbiological Risk Assessment: http://www.codexalimentarius.net/ web/jemra.jsp 7. Joint Food and Agriculture Organization/World Health Organization Food Standards Program.
From page 42...
... In doing so, the analysis explicitly recognized that the risks and benefits of fish consumption may vary across subpopulations. As described in the paper, the risk–risk assessment examines exposures, dose–response relationships, and both positive and negative health endpoints.
From page 43...
... (No risk of harm was observed in men.) By combining the lost QALYs from coronary heart disease and from loss of IQ points, Forshee found that the great est benefit (reduction in QALY loss)
From page 44...
... Risk Versus Safety Many regulatory approaches are based on establishing de minimis safety levels for exposure or consumption -- intake levels that are believed to carry no risk. For nutrients, these levels include such measures as Tolerable Upper Intake Levels and, for toxic substances, the Reference Dose.
From page 45...
... Matthews Any risk assessment involves a challenge in balancing the need for a parsimonious model that can be explained readily against a comprehensive model that includes all the possible risks and alternatives. It was noted, for example, that changing the intake of one dietary component is likely to change the intake of other components as well; a model that did not take this into account might be simpler but less informative.


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