Behavioral Modeling and Simulation From Individuals to Societies (2008) / Chapter Skim
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Part I: BACKGROUND AND NEED FOR ORGANIZATIONAL MODELS, 1 Introduction
Part I: BACKGROUND AND NEED FOR ORGANIZATIONAL MODELS, 1 Introduction
Pages 11-22
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Part I BACKGROUND AND NEED FOR ORGANIZATIONAL MODELS 11
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Air Force Research Laboratory, with additional funding from the Air Force Office of Scientific Research. The Air Force and the other military services are increasingly interested in using models of the behavior of humans, as individuals and in groups of various kinds and sizes to support the development of doctrine, strategies, and tactics for dealing with state and nonstate adversaries, in support of military planning and operations, acquisition programs, and as training and simulation tools.
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Study Task and Objectives The formal statement of task from the cooperative agreement between the NRC and the Air Force for this study is as follows: • Review the state of the art of the subset of the social sciences per ceived as having the greatest payoff in terms of informing future computational model developments. These will include o key conceptual models in the areas of anthropology, sociology, social psychology, political science, organizational theory, and similar social sciences specialties o efforts in developing computational models, "artificial life" sim ulations, and the like being undertaken by these communities • Review the state of the art in societal modeling applications serv ing the Department of Defense (DoD)
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, and the current state of the art of modeling efforts in the social science and computational modeling communities listed in the task statement. We developed plans for obtaining and analyzing the needed information and for organizing the report.
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We invited the sponsor and other military experts to brief us on the particulars of DoD's needs for IOS models and on the expectations of potential model users, and we invited managers of DoD modeling research programs to tell us about their programs. We appointed three military operations experts with some knowledge of IOS modeling as consultants to the committee, enlisting their help in developing representative scenarios of situations in which models might be used by DoD, as one way of understanding the need for IOS models.
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Through the course of this report, we hope to point out some of the key relationships, as well as the considerable distance there is to go in terms of understanding the fundamental interdependencies and interactions that exist, in a manner that supports meaningful and useful models. Second, what should we call these different levels of "knowledge representation" that start with empirically based observations of human activity and end with computational instantiations (specifically, computer-based simulations)
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. lthough A models can be directly instantiated from theories, there is a trend toward increas ing use of "intermediate" architectures, driven both by the practical benefits gained by the model developers in being able to instantiate well-grounded models quickly for specific situations and by the lessons learned gained by the architecture developers with each new model instantiation.
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They can serve many useful purposes, from supporting training, to serving as tactical decision aids, to examining possible outcomes of alternative strategies or policies. Some of the known difficulties of developing and implementing models are discussed later in the report, but a few may bear mention at this point.
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Another challenge is that some of the research on modeling for military purposes must necessarily be conducted at high security levels, in secure environments. It is likely that much of the fundamental research for the design of modeling methods and tools can be done in open venues by researchers with low or no security clearances, but any work that includes specific and current field information on individuals or groups, specifics on friendly or adversary force capabilities, or detailed operational plans must of necessity be highly classified to prevent the adversary anticipation, adaptation, and/or exploitation discussed above.
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Appendix B contains detailed military scenarios that served as exemplars for considering how models could be used for military purposes. Appendix C provides detailed material relevant to the discussion in Chapter 8 of DIME/PMESII modeling paradigms.
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Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
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