Evaluation of the Multifunction Phased Array Radar Planning Process (2008) / Chapter Skim
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7 Evaluation of the Planning Process
7 Evaluation of the Planning Process
Pages 41-58
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From page 41... ...
Chapter 6 and Appendix D of the Joint Action Group/Phased Array Radar Project (JAG/PARP) report summarize the proposed Research and Development plan developed by the Joint Action Group formed by the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OCFM)
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From page 42... ...
. Primary stakeholders that have a stated commitment to fund MPAR research and development activity are: • FAA -- for a cost-effective backup to the next-generation cooperative surveillance system and a possible replacement for legacy radars; FAA is currently funding phased array radar R&D.
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From page 43... ...
Weather surveillance requirements of NOAA, NWS and FAA for a future NEXRAD and Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) upgrade or replacement are among the principal drivers behind their support of MPAR.
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From page 44... ...
It employs a phased primary feed (a form of phased array technology) that provides a stack of 2-degree-elevation receive beams for simultaneous tracking of multiple targets in three dimensions.
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From page 45... ...
could possibly be investigated for seamless low altitude coverage of airborne threats crossing the nation's borders. Section 6.4.3 of the JAG/PARP report indicates that "coordination and collaboration with the CASA program will be essential to this part of the risk reduction program." The relationships between the proposed MPAR system and potential future 3 For a discussion of CAIV and its relationship to Total Ownership Cost (TOC)
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From page 46... ...
Looming upon the horizon are two national directives that have the potential to significantly influence the technical direction and scale of the MPAR program: National Security Presidential Directive 47 and Homeland Security Presidential Directive 16. These two Presidential directives direct the production of the National Strategy of Aviation Security and several supporting plans including the Air Domain Surveillance and Intelligence Integration Plan4 that address surveillance radars (which would include MPAR)
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From page 47... ...
The capability of phased array radars for aircraft surveillance and tracking has been well established through several decades of military experience. However, the same cannot be said for the capability for weather surveillance -- especially for the quantitative measurements required for most effective use of the observations.
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From page 48... ...
A key decision point for the feasibility of MPAR for weather surveillance, and continuance for the R&D program, will be determination of its capability for dual polarization measurements. Therefore, thorough evaluation of the capability of phased array radar to accurately measure polarization variables independent of scan angle must be carried out early in the R&D program.
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From page 49... ...
(2007) : "T-MPAR would be deployed primarily at smaller airports where today, either wind shear protection services are not provided, or are provided by the less capable ASR-9 Weather Systems Processor." This suggests a lower level of terminal weather surveillance performance for certain regions of the country.
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From page 50... ...
The mix of short-range and long-range MPARs in the final network configuration appears to be a major driver of costs and therefore cost estimate uncertainties. A more thorough and systematic approach to cost estimation is needed; various DOD-related publications present an introduction to modern cost estimation methodology (Book, 2001)
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From page 51... ...
These cost estimates are at best rough order of magnitude estimates and, as they stand, are inadequate to form the basis of an informed procurement decision. These could be optimistic figures and will need to be revisited throughout the R&D risk reduction program and beyond to ensure that a viable economic argument for fielding MPAR can be made.
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From page 52... ...
It is possible that the same O&M savings could be realized with less investment and lower risk by replacing just the two weather surveillance radars with a new design, and simply replacing the least reliable legacy aircraft surveillance radars with newer models. The O&M cost estimates for MPAR are assumed to reduce to $0.3 Million per radar per year, based in part on the synergy effects caused by a reduction in the required number of program offices, personnel, and non-recurring engineering (NRE)
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From page 53... ...
Recommendation: An alternative weather-only phased array weather radar design trade study and detailed cost analysis should be performed and compared with historical life cycle costs and performance for NEXRAD and TDWR radars. This trade study and cost analysis should be compared with a more detailed MPAR cost analysis and trade study to determine if the marginal cost of adding the required aircraft surveillance capability is worth the perceived benefit of having an all-in-one system.
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From page 54... ...
As there is little available information on the economic benefits of the current radar systems, the R&D project should include a research component to identify the current and potential communication, perception, use, and values for radar-based information for a broad range of users. This would include both weather and aircraft surveillance functions and a broad spectrum of users including different economic sectors and subsectors (such as transportation, energy, agriculture, or insurance)
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From page 55... ...
March 19, 2008, Jeff Kimpel, Director, National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK.
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From page 56... ...
In contrast to the S-band MPAR work, the specified funding levels and range of activities represent only a fraction of the research needed for risk reduction at shorter radar wavelengths. Risk reduction activities in support of Xband phased array radar, signal processing, and data communication technologies are currently being carried out by the CASA Engineering Research Center with support from the National Science Foundation.
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From page 57... ...
Some of the tasks required the purchase of state-of-the-art hardware, building a dual-polarized sub-array or a full sized Multi-function Phased Array Radar.
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From page 58... ...
In addition to the need for a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of the full implementation of an MPAR system based on results of the risk reduction R&D program, there needs to be a complete CBA of the risk reduction program itself prior to funding of the program.
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