Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter A Symposium Report (2009) / Chapter Skim
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1 Motivation for the Symposium
1 Motivation for the Symposium
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. This methodology is now used by parts of the IC as a tool for assessing potential future national security threats stemming from emerging technologies.
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(The full symposium agenda can be found in Appendix A.) Kiosks were also set up to showcase the Defense Technology Warning System prototype, recent NRC reports issued under the auspices of the TIGER Standing Committee, experimental verification efforts sponsored by DIA, relevant data-mining and visualization techniques developed at the Naval Surface Warfare Center, and technology forecasting by the Institute for the Future.
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MOTIVATION FOR THE SYMPOSIUM Fig 1-1.eps FIGURE 1-1 Objective of the symposium as stated in the symposium brochure. bitmap image
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Symposium Participants There were approximately 140 symposium participants in attendance, including both producers and users of S&TI as well as symposium committee members and representatives from other governmental and nongovernmental organizations with an interest in the topic of emerging technologies and technology surprise. Participant demographics are shown in Figure 1-2.
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This theme recurred throughout the NRC's 1-day symposium as many participants emphasized the need to anticipate how adversaries might use specific technologies rather than simply the availability of raw technical capabilities. Prior to the symposium, the DIA/DWO distributed questionnaires to selected governmental participants to elicit their perspectives regarding key topics to be discussed during the symposium.
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Globalization, commercialization, and commoditization were identified as contributors to the concerns regarding the potential for technology surprise indicated by the responses summarized in Figure 1-4. A number of symposium participants identified specific instances of technology surprise experienced in the past, as suggested by the responses graphed in Figure 1-5.
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MOTIVATION FOR THE SYMPOSIUM Very Concerned Somewhat Concerned Not Concerned FIGURE 1-4 Results in response to the question, How concerned are you about the p Fig 1-4.eps otential for technology surprise? SOURCE: Survey by DIA/DWO.
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This Report Chapter 1 -- this chapter -- describes the motivation for the symposium, sponsor expectations for the report, and information presented to stimulate a dialogue. Current challenges for technology warning, as identified by symposium participants, are described in Chapter 2, and discussion regarding potential S&TI solutions is summarized in Chapter 3.
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